PropBot.AI @PropBot_AI
Data & AI Engineer 🧠 Sports Betting Degenerate 😎 AI Model NBA '24: +36.67u (debuted 3/15) 🏀⚾️🏈Modeling props sharper than the books ⬇️Full BIO⬇️ 21+ docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Joined November 2023-
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Full Card (4/27) #NBAPlayoffs 1.5u P Banchero ORL o7.5 REB -118 1.0u D Mitchell CLE u24.5 PTS -120 1.0u F Wagner ORL o4.5 AST +100 1.0u J Giddey OKC u13.5 PA -118 1.0u S Gilgeous-Alexander OKC o28.5 PTS -108 1.0u C Martin MIA o14.5 PR +100 0.8u J Holiday BOS o11.5 PTS +132
Donovan Mitchell (CLE) u24.5 PTS DK -120 1.0u L15 games | E Mobley IN | avg 22.3 PTS Model Prediction | 21.9 PTS | 59% under Last game they switched from guarding him with Gary Harris to Jalen Suggs and he couldn't get anything going. Mitchell also has some crazy home/road…
Jrue Holiday (BOS) o11.5 PTS FD +132 0.8u L15 games | 32+ MIN | avg 12.2 PTS Model Prediction | 12.3 PTS | 46% over
Shai G-Alexander (OKC) o28.5 PTS FD -110 1.0u L15 games | 35+ MIN | avg 31.3 PTS Model Prediction | 29.6 PTS | 62% over
Caleb Martin (MIA) o14.5 PTS+REB FD +100 1.0u L15 | 30+ MIN | avg 11.7 PTS | 4.5 REB | 16.2 PR 8 games | & 6+ 3PA | avg 14.1 PTS | 5.8 REB | 19.9 PR Model Prediction | 11.1 PTS | 4.1 REB | 15.2 PR The Heat made a point to take a ton of threes in game 2 and it worked. Martin…
Paolo Banchero (ORL) o7.5 REB FD -120 1.5u I cannot believe they left this line at 7.5 after what we saw in game 3. He only played 29 MIN. 10+ absolutely a good bet as well today.
Franz Wagner (ORL) o4.5 AST DK +100 1.0u I am going back to this even at 4.5. He was running plenty of offense when they need to give Paolo a break. Magic probably shot better than they will today, but starters didn't even play the 4th Q and he still had 14 pAST.
Franz Wagner (ORL) o4.5 AST DK +100 1.0u I am going back to this even at 4.5. He was running plenty of offense when they need to give Paolo a break. Magic probably shot better than they will today, but starters didn't even play the 4th Q and he still had 14 pAST. https://t.co/BD9ZS5j2Re
ALT line parlay—only lotto shot I’m taking on the later games
Full Card (4/26) #NBAPlayoffs 1.2u K Middleton MIL u5.5 AST -115 1.0u B Portis MIL o1.5 AST -117 0.8u A Nesmith IND u4.5 REB +122 1.0u N Powell LAC o8.5 PTS -130 1.0u L Doncic DAL o9.5 REB +105 1.0u K Irving DAL o24.5 PTS -112 1.0u L Doncic DAL u9.5 AST -118 1.5u K Towns MIN…
Khris Middleton (MIL) u5.5 AST DK -115 1.2u 9 games | G Antetokounmpo OUT | avg 5.1 AST Model Prediction | 4.8 AST | 60% under I almost took this last game but held off, and glad I did as he got 6 AST on only 8 potentials. Now dealing with a sprained ankle and should tough it…
Devin Booker (PHO) u25.5 PTS DK +100 1.0u L15 games | K Durant & B Beal IN | avg 26.0 PTS 5 games | vs MIN | avg 21.0 PTS Reg Season Model Pred | 23.8 PTS Playoff Model Pred | 24.3 PTS Scary under, but this matchup is just killer for Booker. The Wolves are the best D in the…
Norman Powell (LAC) o8.5 PTS DK -130 1.0u L15 games | J Harden IN & K Leonard IN & P George IN | avg 13.3 PTS Model Prediction | 13.4 PTS | 71% over He's just been shooting poorly but still high usage and they need to get him going. He took 10 FGA last game; he is literally…
Bradley Beal (PHO) u10.5 REB+AST DK +100 1.0u Not a model play. I went back and watched all of his REB + AST in the first 2 games (very quick an easy on NBA.com) and nothing whatsoever swayed me off this data. The majority of what he got seemed 50/50 so downward…
Aaron Nesmith (IND) u4.5 REB FD +122 0.8u L15 games | avg 4.0 REB Model Prediction | 4.3 REB | 64% under Regression has to be coming here. 80% conversion on rebounds does not sustain over the long run (60% is more average). This should not be plus money and other books are…
Kyrie Irving (DAL) o24.5 PTS DK -112 1.0u L15 games | 35+ MIN | avg 27.3 PTS L15 games | 38+ MIN | avg 31.2 PTS 10 games | 40+ MIN | avg 33.5 PTS Reg Season Model Pred | 29.6 PTS Playoff Model Pred | 26.8 PTS Running Kyrie back (lost) and like it even more with Hardaway OUT,…
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@PropBot_AI That Tatum sweat was something else. Great pick 🎉
@PropBot_AI Good catch I saw that too. Mike Conley went 2/12 and could easily drop 15+.
@DK__DFS I was wondering about your process. I agree that he has a better than 1.7% chance, but I don’t see how you get to 6%. Using on/off and he’s at 5.1 asst per 36 with Jimmy and Rozier off the floor. Stays about the same when Herro’s off (he can’t play 48)
@AlexMonahan100 A potential major problem with bottom up is once you realize your model is no good anymore, you’ve lost more bets than you should have. Some dudes have a hard time admitting their model isn’t good anymore
@AlexMonahan100 The big issue is a top down bettor is going to attract the attention of firms risk management way quicker than a bottom up bettor. You come in betting nothing but arbs your account is going to be toast pretty damn quick.
@AlexMonahan100 what about just using all available information to decide if something is a good bet or not? Lots of us do that. Which of the two types does that fall into?
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