ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic
NFL statistical analysis. Team ratings & game projections modeled on ratings and associated point value of every NFL player. profootballlogic.com Joined December 2011-
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Our account was hacked and turned into a different username spreading crypto scams for the past week before Twitter corrected it. Apologies to anyone who saw or was confused. Now back to normal.
Check out our full NCAA Tournament advancement odds here: profootballlogic.com/sports/college…
The list of QBs that have been on their team the longest might be the most shallow in decades, and getting worse: GB Rodgers: 18 yrs LV Carr: 9 DAL Prescott: 7 KC Mahomes: 6 SF Garoppolo: 5.5
Team ratings that fit betting lines for this week & Super Bowl champ odds: KC: 4.0 this week for Mahomes inj, 6.5 for SB CIN: 6.5 PHI: 6.0 SF: 6.5
Team ratings that fit betting lines for this week & Super Bowl champ odds: KC: 4.0 this week for Mahomes inj, 6.5 for SB CIN: 6.5 PHI: 6.0 SF: 6.5
Jaguars had the penalty to justify it, but even without it going for 2 when down 4 late is probably always the right choice. Make = turns overtime into a W Miss = turns overtime into a W/L gamble of needing 30 more yards
Annual reminder that most teams should call way more QB runs/options during the playoffs, as the risk/reward ratio is much different from regular season
Every Wild Card game is a rematch: Wk 3: BUF 19 at MIA 21 Wk 15: MIA 29 at BUF 32 Wk 5: CIN 17 at BAL 19 Wk 18: BAL 16 at CIN 27 Wk 3: JAC 38 at LAC 10 Wk 2: SEA 7 at SF 27 Wk 15: SF 21 at SEA 13 Wk 16: NYG 24 at MIN 27 Wk 1: TB 19 at DAL 3
These are the team ratings we get if we scale ours in our playoffs model to match betting odds for Super Bowl champ odds & this week's lines.
Our playoffs model gives a bit under a 50% chance of the BUF-KC neutral site AFC Championship occurring, and each team's odds of making the Super Bowl about 5% different vs if it would be at KC.
Activations of a player off IR (8 allowed): KC - 3 BUF - 1 CIN - 2 JAC - 1 LAC - 3 BAL - 6 MIA - 4 PHI - 7 SF - 8 MIN - 4 TB - 4 DAL - 2 NYG - 6 SEA - 2
A good All-Pro vote would be surveying coaches & players who their toughest personal opponent this year was, based only on the field & film study. (For instance a CB voting for some DT is no better than asking a random fan).
A good All-Pro vote would be surveying coaches & players who their toughest personal opponent this year was, based only on the field & film study. (For instance a CB voting for some DT is no better than asking a random fan).
Quandre Diggs could have easily stayed in bounds if he tried to, instead of pointing at the Rams bench
A SEA tie would be basically a loss, and help DET. (But SEA would make playoffs with a tie + a DET/GB tie)
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@ScottBarrettDFB Doing a quick calculation with @ProFBLogic player ratings, I this ranking of non-QB roster strength: SF NO BAL CLE TB KC SEA PHI TEN DEN LAR PIT IND GB NE LAC DAL MIN BUF CHI DET NYG ATL WAS LV ARI HOU CAR JAC CIN MIA NYJ profootballlogic.com/players/?posit…
@ChiefsAnalytics @ProFBLogic @benbbaldwin Well put. Sort of a 'level of difficulty' analog to diving. And execution would include blocking execution + RB execution + def execution Which is why I think the team-level variance for xYPC appears to be so small.
@ProFBLogic @benbbaldwin @bburkeESPN My gut (which I'd like to think is well informed, having dug around with this data quite a bit) is that xYPC is a measure of the choice to run (is the defense expecting a run) and the type of run, whereas above or below xYPC is execution.
@ProFBLogic I asked and was told the tiebreakers are: 1) H2H Record 2) Net TDs 3) Total Points in H2H 4) Divisional Win Pct 5) SOV 6) Divisional Net Points Rank 7) Coin Toss
@ProFBLogic @JasonB59102 @AdamSchefter Actually the 3/4 gap would be larger since the 2 seed could now lose in the first round, giving the 3 seed a home divisional game which is currently not possible.
@ProFBLogic @nflscrapR It’s a hard problem. I use Elo as an implementation platform for insights I can use futures markets to create starting Elo, injury data to adjust pre game expectation, EPA to augment performance assement, and then Elo combines it all into a single grade
@ProFBLogic No, because of Rule 12, section 3, Article 3. The ball would need to be snapped to start the clock after the second delay of game
@ProFBLogic @Jason_OTC @fbgchase Keep an eye out for something coming soon that touches on almost everything you mentioned 👀👀👀 Also read your articles on the subject and really enjoyed them
After some CBA research, turns out there are a few quirks coming up that could explain why the Lions are doing more backloading than usual despite being in a relatively comfortable cap situation. It all has to do with some different rules that pertain to the final year of the CBA
@ProFBLogic Not included. Yes, survivor bias is a bit tricky. This was quick and dirty but removing some of the bias.
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