June volume numbers are in for prediction markets
Kalshi and Polymarket combined for $44.8B, up 75% from May
Kalshi alone did $31.5B, an 87% jump, and its World Cup winner market has drawn over $832M
Very impressive volume
One of the more fun markets we've been tracking
Continent to Win the Men's World Cup
North America now has three teams in the Round of 16 but only an 11% chance to win it all
Been really enjoying watching @peteroverzet's SYTYCT and overall impressed with the talent
Confident we're going to see a lot more than just the winner break into the industry
If you competed and are interested in prediction markets, let's talk 🫡
USA currently at 83% to win tonight
Winner gets either Belgium (60%) or Senegal (40%)
Folarin Balogun (46%) and Christian Pulisic (43%) the two USA favorites to score a goal
Where the World Cup winner market sits as the Round of 32 kicks off:
France 29%
Argentina 21%
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Spain 10%
England 9%
Brazil 7%
Spain’s been cut to a third of France’s price since that Cape Verde draw
The World Cup is attracting lots of interest and activity, and other areas are growing alongside. Non-sports volume — across categories like politics, economics, geopolitics, and current events — hit $3.6B last week on Kalshi and Polymarket combined. That’s larger than total prediction market volume (sports included) was just last year.
In July 2025, non-sports weekly volume was around $200M. It has grown roughly 18x since then, with the trajectory steepening sharply this month.
Kalshi is raising at a reported $40B valuation
DraftKings (biggest US sportsbook): ~$12B
Coinbase (profitable, $6.5B revenue): ~$43B
Ford (169K employees, ~$185B revenue): ~$55B
$40B pretty crazy knowing that bakes in the risk of sports betting being regulated out
$57,000 vs $519,000,000
That’s the difference in how much volume we’ve seen on the World Cup winner with the official PM partner vs Kalshi
FIFA picked an Abu Dhabi startup nobody can legally use in the US, and the two unsponsored giants are routing it by a factor of thousands
Official partnership is worth nothing if the liquidity lives elsewhere
NEW: Mark Zuckerberg's Meta is reportedly building a standalone prediction markets app, internally codenamed "Arena," as it looks to compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, per NYT.
World Cup winner odds seeing movement as on the back of Lionel Messi's 5 goals, Argentina has become the 2nd favorite
Jumped from 8c to 14.8c in the past two weeks
Big World Cup day today with two of the top four favorites playing
France (vs Iraq, 5pm ET)
- Win WC: 19.7%
- Win Group: 78.5%
- Win vs Iraq: 91%
Argentina (vs Austria, 1pm ET)
- Win WC: 11.9%
- Win Group: 84.5%
- Win vs Austria: 69%
Wyndham Clark has a 4 stroke lead with 36 holes to play
This is the 23rd time someone has led a major by exactly 4 shots after 36 holes
Only 7 of the previous 22 (32%) went on to win
Kalshi has him at 35% - what’s your play?
interesting to look at the October Fed decision after yesterday's session
maintaining rate remaining most likely but hike has flipped cut as the next most likely
The Fed decision at 2pm is a near lock (97% no change)
The more interesting trade is the rest of 2026
- half of 34 former Fed officials in one survey think Warsh may have to hike
- the market prices no change by year-end
We'll get a much better sense after today's session
The Fed meeting is today and tomorrow with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
Prediction markets have a hold at 97%
The interesting question is what comes next: Polymarket prices 57% odds of zero cuts in all of 2026, despite a Fed dot plot still calling for one
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