Nils Mackay @NilsMackay
Data Scientist at Opta/Stats Perform | Proud supporter of Feyenoord mackayanalytics.nl Holland Joined March 2010-
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Throwback to early September, when 🇨🇿 Czechia had just dropped down to 18th (!). We had them at 7.6% to make Top 10 at that point, really good run they had.
Throwback to early September, when 🇨🇿 Czechia had just dropped down to 18th (!). We had them at 7.6% to make Top 10 at that point, really good run they had.
The 23/24 coefficients table is almost finalised. With Viktoria Plzen eliminated, 🇨🇿 Czechia ends the season in 10th. 🇬🇷 Greece loses PAOK and only has Olympiakos still playing. For Greece to overtake 🇩🇰Denmark Olympiakos need to win both semi-finals AND the final.
It looks like it will be 🇮🇹 Italy and 🇩🇪 Germany who will get an additional Champions League group stage ticket next year! 🇮🇹 Italy 100% certain 🇩🇪 For Germany to lose it, they would need to lose nearly all games and Aston Villa needs to win every game.
We have a new country in the Top 10 of Europe! 🇨🇿 Czechia clinches Top 10! 🏴 Scotland drops out, and loses their direct UCL spot. Top 15 is almost set, only team remaining is 🇬🇷 Greece. Great win from Olympiakos yesterday means they still have 14.4% to take 15th from 🇩🇰Denmark
Who get's the additional Champions League tickets? Very bad week for 🏴 England, likely losing Liverpool and West Ham at the very least. They are now tied on points with 🇩🇪 Germany. Bayern - Arsenal next week will be huge. 🇮🇹 Italy even more certain of ending in Top 2 now.
🇨🇿 Viktoria Plzen come in clutch for Czech Republic, by drawing Fiorentina! They overtake 🏴 Scotland who no longer have any teams remaining. Great season awarded with a direct spot in the 25/26 Champions League!
🇨🇿 Viktoria Plzen come in clutch for Czech Republic, by drawing Fiorentina! They overtake 🏴 Scotland who no longer have any teams remaining. Great season awarded with a direct spot in the 25/26 Champions League!
Fun fact! Out of all quarter finalists in the Champions League, the one with the LOWEST chance to make the semi finals is.... Real Madrid 👀 (±38%)
Post-draw update for Top 10/15 race: 🇨🇿 Slightly tough draw for Viktoria, but still at 72.2% to at least get a draw in one of two games. 🇬🇷 Greece with an average draw. 10 points needed to overtake 🇩🇰Denmark, e.g. both winning twice. Tall order but still 8.1% chance!
Post-draw update for Top 10/15 race: 🇨🇿 Slightly tough draw for Viktoria, but still at 72.2% to at least get a draw in one of two games. 🇬🇷 Greece with an average draw. 10 points needed to overtake 🇩🇰Denmark, e.g. both winning twice. Tall order but still 8.1% chance! https://t.co/LfAH5F84Ds
Post-draw update! 🏴 Very tough draw for England, especially for City/Arsenal/Villa. Chance of extra Champions League ticket next year drops by 🔻12%! which is good news for: 🇮🇹 Neutral draw, but still increased chances of 2%! 🇩🇪 Good draw (+0.2 xPts) sees them increase by 10%!
Post-draw update! 🏴 Very tough draw for England, especially for City/Arsenal/Villa. Chance of extra Champions League ticket next year drops by 🔻12%! which is good news for: 🇮🇹 Neutral draw, but still increased chances of 2%! 🇩🇪 Good draw (+0.2 xPts) sees them increase by 10%! https://t.co/dK7qfrkbA9
Into the final stages of the European season, every game matters now. 🇮🇹 Inter's exit a hit for Italy, but likely without consequences. 🇩🇪 Germany increase their expected points total, but see their chance of Top 2 drop, because... 🏴 England's expected points rise even more!
Michael Caley @MC_of_A
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Carl Carpenter @CarlonCarpenter
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StatsBomb @StatsBomb
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Interesting. Turns out the income gap between the US and Europe disappears once you adjust for spending on the secondary market for restaurant reservations
People are making $70-80K per year selling restaurant reservations in NYC on the secondary market 😯
De zoektocht van Liverpool naar opvolger Jürgen Klopp 1⃣ Edwards terug in overkoepelende rol 2⃣ Technisch directeur aangesteld voor sportieve beleid 3⃣ Trainer identificeren, shortlist op basis van data vi.nl/pro/zo-zoekt-l…
On my way down to The Great Hall for Round 14 of the #FIDECandidates. Couldn't ask for better final round match-ups.
🔥 In Round 14, the ultimate match-up of the #FIDECandidates, we have 🇺🇸 Hikaru Nakamura (2789) up against 🇮🇳 Gukesh D (2743)! It's a crucial match for Hikaru, who must secure a win. Meanwhile, a victory for Gukesh would immediately earn him the right to challenge Ding Liren for…
✍️ ⚽️Are all 20 yard passes judged equally by possession value (PV) models? Can you still get positive PV from incomplete passes? Answers to these questions and more in my new blog post. (L I N K I N R E P L Y.)
No predictions tomorrow, best I can do are Naka vs Nepo scenarios: Nepo 1-0 Naka => Nepo 68.5% / Gukesh 15.6% / Fabi 12.2% / Naka 3.8% Nepo ½ - ½ Naka => Naka 43.2% / Gukesh 26.5% / Nepo 20.1% / Fabi 10.3% Nepo 0- 1 Naka => Naka 79.2% / Gukesh 17.4% / Fabi 3.1% / Nepo 0.3%
Earlier this month I bid farewell to @StatsBomb. Working on soccer & then the football side @StatsBomb_FB was an absolute joy. I first wrote for the site 7 years ago & it felt like home. I'll miss the wonderful people that made it such a brilliant place to work.
Shot chart shown in the CL mainstream preview show on Dutch TV! 👏 @RTL7 & @HumbertoTan
After Round 10: Nepo 28.9% Gukesh 22.9% Caruana 18.2% Nakamura 14.3% Pragg 13.9% Vidit 1.9% Firouzja 0.0% Abasov 0.0% Lei Tingjie 53.2% Tan Zhongyi 37.5% Goryachkina 5.6% Lagno 3.7% Koneru 0.1% Muzychuk 0.0% Salimova 0.0% Vaishali 0.0%
@NilsMackay @OptaAnalyst Everything fine. Good work. I agree that England has a higher chance.
After Round 4: Nepo 31.2% Caruana 30.0% Pragg 13.1% Gukesh 12.8% Nakamura 6.3% Firouzja 5.8% Vidit 2.6% Abasov 0.1% Tan Zhongyi 46.6% Goryachkina 23.0% Lei Tingjie 12.3% Lagno 5.6% Salimova 4.8% Vaishali 2.8% Muzychuk 2.8% Koneru 2.1%
6 - Ajax have lost an official game by a six-goal margin for the first time in club history. Slaughtered.
For #Day6 of #30DayChartChallenge I took a look at the chance Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund had of winning 2022-23 Bundesliga title
Candidates odds (♚ section): Caruana 24.2% Nakamura 18.6% Firouzja 17.1% Nepomniachtchi 13.3% Praggnanandhaa 13.3% Gukesh 7.5% Vidit 5.6% Abasov 0.3%
After ten years...I'm back! I'm excited to launch this Copa Libertadores podcast, in partnership with @SoccerDownHere. In episode #1, I present a historical overview of the tournament and preview this season's Group Stage. spreaker.com/episode/the-so…
Ipswich Town are now ranked 106th in the world according to the Opta Power Rankings. Since relegation to League One in 2019, they have been as low as 1142nd in the world (15/09/21 after a 2-1 loss at home to West Ham U21s in the EFL Trophy).
Ik word wakker uit een diepe slaap om jullie te vertellen over mijn nieuwe boek. Een kern van waarheid. Begin juli.
Starting off my first #30DayChartChallenge with something quick and straightforward. Here's Arsenal's % of time in each game state for day 1 - part to whole
@NilsMackay Yep, prob not clear in that markdown but filters wouldn’t overwrite so filter 2 would be on filter1 data etc.. until filters are cleared. I think a user would see each filter as a badge that can be cleared individually with a way to clear all
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