Nightview Capital @NightviewCap

Q2 2025 Investor Letter: Zoom Out—A View From the Edge of Transformation Three emergent themes shaping the decade ahead: Chinese innovation, autonomous transport, and intelligent automation. nightviewcapital.com/q2-2025-invest…

This week, we published our longform deep-dive on Amazon AI, robotics, and automation. It’s based on countless interviews, extensive firsthand research, and in-person site visits. And it’s one of the more mind-blowing stories I’ve ever worked on.

Big Think @bigthink

a year ago

Amazon’s AI and robotics strategy is quietly reshaping the economics of retail. @EricMarkowitz bigthink.com/business/a-dee… "Years of infrastructure buildout, automation, and logistics optimization are beginning to bear fruit, and we expect operating margins to expand meaningfully

0 3 11 7K 9

My business partner @DanCrowleyNVC will be going across China for a research trip this summer, meeting with local autonomous EV makers and robotics companies. If anyone is local and would like to meet with him — please DM. Thanks!

"The Secret Weapon of Great Investors" - read a new essay from @ArneAlsin on volatility, compounding, and the importance of patience as a long-term investor. nightviewcapital.com/the-secret-wea…

The Gold Mine Metaphor: Tesla $TSLA In my mind, owning shares of Tesla is like owning shares in a gold mine—it’s about long-term value, not short-term earnings. It’s a working capital project. The heavy capex is spent, and now it’s time to reap the rewards. We’ve committed both capital and duration, and I believe we’re on the verge of unlocking that value. Like a gold mine, I think Tesla is about to tap into its two richest veins: Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus. Zoom out. Think about the next 2-3 years.

Our founder and CIO @ArneAlsin shared 3 reasons he's optimistic about the market. Read it here: nightviewcapital.com/why-im-optimis…

Why I’m Optimistic About the Market Markets test conviction. Always have. Always will. Right now? Pessimism is everywhere—inflation, rates, war, tariffs. A hundred reasons to sell. I don’t buy it. After 40 years in this game, one truth holds: I believe progress wins, fear fades, and betting against innovation is a losing strategy. This time is no different. Three forces, in my view, are driving the next bull market: AI, transportation, and the accelerating pace of technological breakthroughs. Let’s break it down. 1. AI Is Just Getting Started AI isn’t a fad—it’s the most transformative shift since the internet. It’s already reshaping the P&L, driving profit expansion. Here’s what people miss: I think AI is making everything more efficient—slashing costs, automating tasks, and unlocking new revenue streams. It’s happening now. Software. Healthcare. Logistics. The early adopters are pulling away. The laggards will be left behind. The market doesn’t get it yet. I believe it will. 2. Expand Your Lens Markets obsess over the short term. We think in 2-3 year cycles. That’s our advantage—time arbitrage. What’s ahead? A favorable interest rate curve. A reset after reckless fiscal spending. Catalysts stacking up. I believe this is where patient investors win. 3. Innovation Compounds Technology doesn’t move in straight lines—it stacks, it compounds. AI is fueling breakthroughs in robotics, energy storage, materials science, and healthcare. These forces reinforce each other. Take batteries—costs are falling, efficiency is rising. This isn’t just good for EVs; it changes the economics of energy itself. Same with AI-driven drug discovery—faster trials, cheaper medicine, more lives saved. We’re in a golden age of innovation. I don’t think the market fully appreciates this yet. The Market Will Turn—It Always Does Fear never lasts. Every bull market begins in doubt, then reality takes over. Progress doesn’t stop. Technology doesn’t stop. I believe the companies leading these shifts will be worth multiples of what they are today. The real question isn’t whether the market will recover—it’s whether you have the patience to hold while it does. I’m optimistic. Not because it’s easy, but because I believe in where we’re headed. The market will turn. It always does. And when it does? Those who stayed the course will win—big. Disclosures The opinions expressed herein are those of Nightview Capital and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions Nightview Capital makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities discussed herein. Nightview Capital reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.

Today in London, I toured the 336-year-old Lloyd’s of London, the world’s oldest insurance marketplace. It was founded in in 1689 in a coffee shop. Still very much humming today. Very cool experience - a few takeaways below

Our Portfolio Manager @DanCrowleyNVC discussed his views on $AMZN, $TSLA, and $BABA this morning on @BNNBloomberg. Topics discussed: - $AMZN moat and continued growth - $BABA AI progress and expanding cloud business - $TSLA real-world AI is coming bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/th…

Watch our Portfolio Manager @DanCrowleyNVC discuss his views on the gaming sector with @NPetallides on @SchwabNetwork schwabnetwork.com/video/360-roun…

🤑 $DKNG $MGM $WYNN 🤑 @cfraresearch's Zach Warring & @NightviewCap's Dan Crowley assess the outlook for gambling stocks post-earnings with @NPetallides:

Zoom out. For long-term shareholders, we believe volatility can create opportunities for those with conviction and confidence. Read @ArneAlsin on investing in $TSLA — and why he's bullish about the future. nightviewcapital.com/confessions-of…

Full link: barrons.com/articles/tesla…

Nightview Capital's Managing Partner and Director of Research @EricMarkowitz spoke with @DowJonesAl for @barronsonline about taking the long view on investing in Tesla $tsla

Watch our Portfolio Manager @DanCrowleyNVC discuss his thesis on $META with @NPetallides on @SchwabNetwork "We haven't seen any real dramatic shift in a computing platform since the iPhone in 2007. META is making progress, especially on the AR side."

This week in The Nightcrawler, some excellent work via @bigthink -@zoescaman on the rising value of community -@albertwenger on energy and progress -@sequoia on the stochastic mindset -@tsaicapital annual letter (quote below) -@RihardJarc reflects on DeepSeek implications

nightviewcapital.com/2024-annual-le…

ICYMI: Read our 2024 annual letter, in which we explore five transformative trends we’re tracking in 2025 and beyond, as well as a discussion of key companies in our universe. [Link below]

Read our 2024 Annual Letter: Investing Through the Next Industrial Revolution "Artificial intelligence, much like electricity in its infancy, is evolving from impressive demonstrations into something foundational to modern business." nightviewcapital.com/2024-annual-le…