Mobius Risk Group @MobiusRiskGroup

Stubborn inflation bolsters the forecast for a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. Meanwhile, the Fed's path to a soft landing must navigate lurking risks on consumer and bank balance sheets, as credit card delinquency rates and charge-offs on commercial loans are…

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Japan is the world's fifth-largest energy consumer and second-largest LNG buyer, but the weakest yen in 34 years presents bearish headwinds for Japanese import demand. Japan's relative import costs are nearly 4% higher in the three weeks since the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ended the…

A fully electric light-duty passenger fleet would require approximately 294 GW of generation capacity to meet residential power demand for BEV charging with typical use. According to average construction costs for U.S. generation resources, meeting the residential charging needs…

Since 2015, China has added 16.5 times the number of reactor units and nearly 15 times the generation capacity of the United States. China's exceptional installation rates will lead it past the United States 101 GW of nuclear capacity by 2030. What are the repercussions for…

Three countries with a combined 3.16 billion people (40% of the world's population) are responsible for almost 85% of global coal generation capacity growth in 2023. As a whole, Asia is responsible for 90% of the 578 GW of global coal-fired generation in development. That's…

The latest CPI print from the U.S. Department of Labor confirms the risks we've highlighted since January: upside price pressures from geopolitical conflict, renewable volatility, and supply-side disruptions will add headwinds for disinflation. March's CPI reading showed…

Eclipse Power Prices Hit $471/MWh: The 2024 total solar eclipse lasted approximately two hours and completely obscured sunlight for roughly 4.5 minutes inside the path of totality. Despite grid operators ' advanced planning, Texas system-wide power prices surged past ERCOT’s…

China is the world's second-biggest economy, second-largest importer, and largest exporter. In the next decade, however, global commodity markets will have to grapple with China's demographic crisis. What does China's "tombstone" population pyramid mean for market stakeholders?…

While headlines focus on OPEC's hyped production cuts, the group's exports have quietly increased by over 350,000 barrels per day since February. Six of the top eight OPEC+ members increased exports month-on-month, including Iraq (despite its pledge to trim shipments in…

Venezuela's petroleum exports are on track to hit their highest monthly reading in nearly six years at 1.2 million bpd, but energy markets shouldn't expect the trend to last. Instead, Venezuela's short-lived supply jump opens the door for more upside price skew in Q2. Here's…

Want to know how industry leaders think about the energy transition? Mobius' VP of Corporate Strategy and Development, Andrew Lichter, discusses energy transition opportunities and challenges in this featured piece from the Houston Business Journal's Table of Experts at the…

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This week's ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI broke the critical 50 mark for the first time in 16 months - Are U.S. diesel inventories ready for the recovery in industrial activity? Some regional supplies might fall short: insights.mobiusriskgroup.com/p/us-manufactu… ----- #oilandgas #diesel #energy

What should energy markets expect from Israel's reported strikes on the Iranian consulate in Syria? For starters, global crude markets should keep an eye on Tehran's retaliation. A direct response would risk disrupting ~2 million bpd of crude and condensate supply. The other…

After a slow start to the year, Asia's crude imports are displaying promising strength heading into Q2's tight market outlook. On the supply side, however, sanctions are beginning to push Russia in new directions. Find out more here: insights.mobiusriskgroup.com/p/asias-crude-… ----- #crudeoil…

Another delay for Mexico's new 340,000 bpd Dos Bocas refinery will ease bearish pressure for U.S. gasoline and diesel exports through most of 2024. What does the latest guidance from Mexico's President AMLO mean for U.S. refiners and inventories? Find the takeaways here:…

Is the EU importing more Russian oil than the official narrative suggests? CPC blend crude exports (which include Kazakh and Russian oil) have displayed an interesting theme in the first three months of 2024. Because Kazakhstan has a historic majority in the CPC blend, the grade…

AI systems like ChatGPT use nearly 10x as much power per request as a typical Google search. When you add the electricity consumption of training, data processing, and data center cooling, it's no wonder why the IEA forecasts that data center power demand will nearly match that…

The EPA projects that its new vehicle emissions standards will require 30%-56% of all new vehicle sales to be EVs by model years 2030-2032. Here are the key takeaways of the new final rule for consumers and energy industry stakeholders: 1. The path to 50% BEV market…

The Bank of Japan ended the world's last negative interest rate yesterday, raising its policy rate for the first time in 17 years. Despite the increase in interest rates, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-decision commentary puzzled markets and prevented inflows to the yen. That…

Europe's demand for Guyana's newest crude slate - Payara Gold - spells trouble for historically dominant suppliers in Norway and the Middle East. Through 2023, European importers secured over 60% of all Guyanese exports, and 2024 figures are even higher. The second-order effects…