ChargeUp Mike @MktObserverMT

COT on #Forex: In the week to 7 July, when the US dollar traded mostly lower and was little changed against the euro following the weaker-than-expected June payrolls report, the gross non-commercial USD long across the eight major IMM currency futures nevertheless continued to climb, reaching a fresh 10-year high above USD 40 billion.

Sure oil prices fell recently, but most folks don't realize just how reliant that has been on continued strategic inventory drawdowns b/c Hormuz never really fully opened. At this pace weeks away from using up this crucial source of supply

Texas is about to become a massive market for front of the meter too. But massive does not mean even 50 gigawatts. Every realistic prediction I have seen of realized load growth does not tap anything close to 30 gigawatts by 2030 in the southeastern United States, starting with Texas.

Shanu Mathew @ShanuMathew93

5 days ago

All (btm) roads lead to Texas... "Texas remains a key market for BTM arrangements given the lack of FERC oversight, which has caused more regulatory lag in other states such as PA."

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This article, about the Polish billionaire who wants to built 14 BWRX-300 SMRs in the UK, refers to a total cost estimate of $46.5 billion. That would be ~$11 billion per GW of capacity. Article link in reply. That's significantly lower than the cost of large reactors being built in the UK, and elsewhere in Europe. It's also lower than the cost estimate for the BWRX-300s being built in Canada. Then again, if you compare the above cost to the large reactors' pre-construction cost estimates, and account for inflation, the costs are more similar.

Saudi Arabia is considering expanding its East-West pipeline by up to 2M bpd. The move would allow more crude to reach the Red Sea without transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Kuwait and other Gulf producers reportedly in talks to use the route.

Anyone notice data center construction growth has slowed a lot over the last year?

FORMER TVA CEO DON MOUL JOINS STANDARD NUCLEAR'S BOARD WHY IT MATTERS · Moul retired as TVA President and CEO effective July 1 and joins the TRISO fuel maker's board as an independent director five days later · Nearly 40 years in nuclear operations, including Chief Nuclear Officer at NextEra over 7 units at 5 sites, plus senior roles at FirstEnergy, AEP, and GPU Nuclear · Second independent director in a week, following Gen. Austin Scott Miller (Ret.) on June 29, both landing after the company's S-1 filing for a proposed IPO · Standard Nuclear says it is the nation's only independent manufacturer of TRISO fuel OE READ Read the board sequence. S-1 filing, then a JSOC commander, then a utility chief executive, all inside two weeks. That is a company translating itself for public market investors. Miller vouches for the defense demand story. Moul vouches for the ability to run nuclear infrastructure at scale. This is governance built for IPO scrutiny and Oak Ridge scale-up. The signal is that a forty-year operating reputation does not sign onto a fuel startup's board without looking hard at the demand behind it. Is Standard Nuclear building investor-grade governance as quickly as it’s building its TRISO customer pipeline?

Great reporting by @tejparikh90 on a great new report by McKinsey Global Institute. One of the reasons investment in the UK is so low is that it's just really expensive. #dataisbeautiful giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac…

For our friend’s in #Europe I put together a “map of record” for the June 2026 #Heatwave - the most severe in Europe’s history - with the help of @extremetemps Thank U! All-Time National Heat Records: Germany — 41.8°C (107.2°F) Czechia — 41.9°C (107.4°F) Denmark — 37.0°C (98.6°F) Poland — 40.5°C (104.9°F) Belarus — 40.4°C (104.7°F) Slovakia — 41.3°C (106.3°F) Hungary — 42.0°C (107.6°F) Luxembourg — 40.9°C (105.6°F) Jersey — 39.3°C (102.7°F) Guernsey — 36.4°C (97.5°F) June National Heat Records: Austria — 40.1°C (104.2°F) Croatia — 41.0°C (105.8°F) Slovenia — 38.7°C (101.7°F) Montenegro — 41.7°C (107.1°F) Lithuania — 36.3°C (97.3°F) UK — 37.7°C (99.9°F) Switzerland — 39.0°C (102.2°F) Isle of Man — 27.6°C (81.7°F) Belgium — 39.9°C (103.8°F) Netherlands — 39.4°C (102.9°F) @DaveThroup @ed_hawkins @or_bit_eye @DavidUllrich202 @dwallacewells @PGDynes

The Hidden Cost of Germany's Renewable Buildout & Price Zones 🇩🇪 Our Chief Analyst, Tobias Federico, recently joined Paul Pontenagel from Time2Market - Market Management Services to discuss some of the biggest questions facing Germany's evolving power market. The episode explores: ⚡ How German trading volumes reached 10x actual electricity consumption 📊 The three pricing models of the energy world 🌍 Why Germany's grid can't keep up with its renewable buildout ⚖️ Whether Germany should be split into price zones 🔋 How battery storage could affect negative prices over the next five years 🤖 How AI data centres are complicating Europe's renewables targets If you want to better understand the forces reshaping Europe's largest power market, this episode is well worth a listen. 🎧 Watch the full episode here: time2market.net/time2talk/time…

A Qatari LNG tanker just went dark near the Strait of Hormuz. That's the signal to watch. What's known: 🔸 First visible LNG passage toward Hormuz from Qatar in about a week 🔸 The vessel loaded at Ras Laffan earlier this week, was tracked heading toward the strait, then stopped transmitting, destination unconfirmed 🔸 Yesterday's satellite imagery shows active loading at Ras Laffan, the clearest sign yet Qatar is gearing up to restart exports The tanker going dark isn't necessarily bad news. It's just not confirmation yet. Watch for the next transit that actually clears the strait.

🚨 47% to 50% of Petrobras' subsea fleet comes from 2 companies about to become 1. What the Saipem-Subsea7 merger would create: 1️⃣ €21 billion in annual revenue, €40-43 billion in backlog, a combined heavy-lift and pipe-lay fleet no rival can match 2️⃣ Brazil's CADE already approved it, but ExxonMobil, Petrobras and TechnipFMC are appealing, warning it leaves "a single relevant supplier" 3️⃣ Australia's ACCC just opened a Phase 2 review, up to 90 business days, flagging risk to umbilicals, risers and deepwater pipeline installation 2 continents, 2 regulators, 1 question: how much consolidation is too much when only a handful of firms can even compete.

Urenco USA has brought its fifth new enrichment cascade online at its National Enrichment Facility in Eunice, New Mexico, continuing an expansion program that began in 2025 to install 700,000 separative work units of additional capacity by early 2027. The facility is currently the only commercial uranium enrichment plant in the United States. Existing annual capacity is 4.3 million SWU, which accounts for about a third of current U.S. demand. In 2029, Urenco USA plans to begin construction of a new 2.1 million SWU plant at the site, with first production expected in 2032 and additional cascades installed through 2036. Installed capacity at the facility will grow to more than 7 million SWU over the next ten years.

@bscholl Not even a month apart

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Raising capital through debt or equity becomes addictive for many. So much so that their business model shifts to it as the core focus as opposed to the actual business. This is a great example of that dynamic and how it usually ends. Always ask if the funding is to grow the business or to grow the funding. $MSTR shareholders take note.

THE NEA PUT A NUMBER ON THE TRIPLING GAP: 600 GWe SCENARIO CHECK · The NEA's Nuclear Energy Outlook models four pathways for global nuclear capacity, and only the most aggressive one, the Transformative Scenario at roughly 1,324 GWe, clears the COP28 tripling target by 2050. · The Current Trends Scenario lands at 619 GWe, an approximately 600 GWe gap against tripling, and even the Ambitious Scenario at 883 GWe falls around 300 GWe short. · Getting on the Transformative pathway would push OECD financing needs toward 200 billion dollars per year in the 2030s, up from about 12 billion per year over the last decade. OE READ Momentum is not the same as delivery. The tripling pledge now has an official OECD scorecard, and current trends miss it by roughly one and a half times the entire existing global fleet. The variable that decides which curve we ride is boring on purpose: licenses, supply chains, and financeable project structures, not announcements. Which scenario does the 2030s project pipeline actually resemble?

Oil and gas are far from dead: "US fossil fuel power investments are outpacing China's for the first time in decades.." 👀🇨🇳🇺🇸

After Selling Off Due to Russell Rebalance, $BE Inks Large $25 Billion Partnership with Brookfield Bloom Energy shares rise as much as 9.5% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the company expanded its partnership with Brookfield from $5 billion to $25 billion to help grow the fuel cell partnership globally. “Scaling this partnership further strengthens Brookfield’s position as one of the leading global AI infrastructure investors, capable of delivering end-to-end solutions, from electrons to tokens, for some of the world’s most sophisticated customers,” Sikander Rashid, head of AI infrastructure at Brookfield, said in a statement The expanded partnership is part of Brookfield’s AI Infrastructure Fund, which launched in November 2025 with a target to deploy $100 billion.

LNG now accounts for 55% of global gas trade. Its lead over pipeline trade should continue to wide until Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe return in more meaningful volumes. Qatari losses will temporarily stall this trend, even as US #LNG exports grow. @ColumbiaUEnergy

Just a quick reminder that analysts *already* expect the next 5 years of earnings growth to be the most extraordinary in history. And just how implausible the macro reality has to be to get there. h/t @thedailyshot & @Callum_Thomas x.com/BobEUnlimited/…

Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

2 months ago

AI Mania Hopes vs. Macroeconomic Reality Equity investors are extrapolating the recent quarters of strong earnings growth to expect the strongest 5yr earnings growth in history, requiring increasingly implausible future macro outcomes. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/ai-mania-hop…

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