Mike Bird @MikeBirdTech
open source AI will save the world // Host @ToolUsePodcast // AI and Engineering Lead @ BoxOne Ventures mikebird.tech Joined June 2018-
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My interpretation of this: Right now, Anthropic and OpenAI are making a killing by selling enterprise FDE services to F500s, building workflows for them on top of proprietary models, then using the traces and context from this to build RL envs to improve the models. This is crazy amounts of leverage - instead of buying this data they're getting paid gigantic consulting fees to extract it. This also goes way beyond typical consulting in scope - organizations are effectively outsourcing key learning curves and domain knowledge to the AI labs. Despite that, it's so far been worth it for them because the value of skilled FDE is so high and the ROI so fast, and orgs are willing to pay a premium for competent AI implementation. But in the long run, one of two things happens: either orgs are gonna get hooked on this and end up paying for the model training that replaces their business, or they find a way to build and own their own model ecosystem. What that looks like is developing some combination of AI models, evals, RL envs, and workflows. Initially probably the model will still be an off-the-shelf frontier model from a top lab. But as firms build out more sophisticated eval / RL env (increasingly the same thing) infra, it starts to become viable to post-train an custom model on top of an OSS base. Cursor have done this successfully with their Composer model RL'd on top of Kimi. Sidenote, this is the same conversation that a lot of national governments in Europe are having in the past week. When we look at what the rhetoric about 'sovereign AI' in the UK actually boils down to, it's doing custom post-training on top of an OSS model, and then running it on local GPUs. Ultimately, the current feeding frenzy for AI services in all of its guises - FDE, AI consulting, etc - should raise questions about long-term sustainability. If consulting services are truly a value add and competitive advantage, then in the long term you want to in-house.
@file_mutex people who dont read the code are not serious people and it takes a serious person to ship production software
“The boy who cried wolf” is a powerful fable
@dexhorthy It’s not even close to being true
When you rent your artificial intelligence, you have no control, and no choice. This is why sovereignty and ownership matters. Whether it means using your own hardware, open source, or deep customization. Own your AI, own your future.
Tin foil hat time Once anthropic can make money from their own software without selling the model but selling services created by their model they will stop being a model provider. They are using you and selling to you as a stop gap before "AGI"
NEW: malware developers added nuclear & biological weapons text to to their spyware. Goal? To trigger LLM safety refusals... so that their spyware wouldn't be analyzed by an AI security scanner. Cleanest practical example I can think of for why over-indexing on first order safety alignment is risky. When closed (and open) models ship with aggressive refusals, they will be sprinkled with second-order blindspots that attackers will discover...and exploit. We are only in the earliest days of attackers leveraging these features, and it wouldn't surprise me if users systems that need to handle complex cybersecurity issues demand that models be less safety-blunted. In the weeds: @SocketSecurity's post also shows why intention matters in how you design a malware analysis pipeline to avoid prompt manipulation. H/T to colleagues that shared this with me socket.dev/blog/mini-shai…
Concentration of power, capabilities and economic wealth is the biggest risk in AI. We need open science and open-source more than ever!
@cosine_distance @karpathy I think pretty high. Especially now that Anthropic has really highlighted the stakes. They have, at least, put a real fire under the global research community to ensure they don't break democracy.
@TheMingjie "well intentioned" is being very charitable
@RebeccaTorrenc5 @NMasc y'all know handy.computer is free, right?
@yacineMTB Parents should take responsibility. We don't need the state to tell us what we can and cannot watch
GitHub is becoming unusable Has anyone tried @useblacksmith?
@0xSero Just need to build counter measures
Try an open model today
The last month, Anthropic: - Quietly nerfed their flagship model harness (Claude Code) without telling anyone - Banned corporate customers of Claude - Silently changed plans for customers with certain files in their repo All evidence that closed models are *massive* risks.
the new race to the bottom
the aura loss of anthropic is imminent and some of you still don’t see it
@vultuk @useblacksmith Thanks for the insight Simon!
GitHub is becoming unusable Has anyone tried @useblacksmith?
I am increasingly bullish on open source harnesses (like OpenCode) not because they will be better than SOTA closed harnesses, but because they will never pull shady stuff like what Claude Code and other closed harnesses can and do, regularly. Every incident like this a reminder
THIS GUY LOST $200 IN ONE DAY BECAUSE THE STRING "HERMES.md" WAS IN HIS GIT COMMITS HERMES.md is a real convention used in AI agent projects. it's a system prompt specification file. not some obscure edge case he's on claude max 20x at $200 a month. yesterday claude code hit
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