Matt @Matthewagi

Is it possible to spot a good forecast by its rationale? We used LLMs to score the reasoning behind 55,000+ forecasts and test the link between forecast accuracy and written rationales. We found that: • Causal reasoning is much more prevalent than statistical argumentation •

1 11 36 3K 21

0 0 0 83 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

22 hours ago

@robinhanson I can't read the full article but the hantavirus outbreak is more an indication of market behavior overriding prediction (which is expected). Which is kind of the point of the article but should be highlighted explicitly (apologies if it is later)

0 0 0 140 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

23 hours ago

Well that's the heart of the problem. Globally neutral from human to deer (animals in general) does not seem to be "extremely odd" to me in terms of the emotional feel of neutral. Culture appears as a relatively small perturbation unless you are already considering constrained space in which case sure you can create a relativistic "extreme" but you are now already greatly constrained so this extreme feels disingenuous

0 0 0 8 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

a day ago

@Grad62304977 You get signal scaling in RL that's quartic with horizon which kind of forces your hand at 128k

0 0 0 210 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

a day ago

@theandrewsiah A lot of these are for power users which train the automatic system. I'm not a user enough of these but I am a user enough to see it getting implemented behind the scenes

0 0 0 18 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

a day ago

@samswoora right on

1 0 2 9 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

a day ago

@kramerposts hell yeah

0 0 2 107 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

a day ago

@hopes_revenge are we getting the version where instead of more fit the hamster gets more mdma? would be nice

0 0 2 68 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

a day ago

Nerds should buy fruit gushers to make cluster gushers

0 0 0 15 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

2 days ago

@sasuke___420 I'm trying to do something monotonous via goal and the hidden assumptions are killing me

0 0 2 478 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

2 days ago

@iScienceLuvr What does the medical literature say on showering?

0 0 0 43 0

View Details

Matt @Matthewagi

2 days ago

@_fracapuano This is mostly an intelligence problem. Similar idea with shoddy manufacturing 20-30 years ago. Over time you apply more intelligence to every decision and it gets better. End state is single use software/good quality so cheap you throwaway and buy new.