@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch FWIW, education differences appear to be *downstream* of value differences (uni doesn't make ppl socially liberal so much as being socially liberal makes you more likely to want to go to uni).
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch > why* these trends are appearing Contra @jburnmurdoch I start from the position that gender gaps in political support are a long-term feature of radical/far right parties as far back as they've been studied.
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch So, to explain a gap appearing in *political support* you don't need something new to be happening *among voters*, you just need something new to be happening in politics - e.g. centre-right parties getting closer to radical right parties/radical right parties growing.
@MariosRichards @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch Some would argue that where 'radical' right parties such as Reform are is just where 'conservative' parties would have been a generation ago. Which would bring scrutiny on what exactly constitutes the 'centre' parties. Assuming left-right spectrum is still a useful model.
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch > would have been a generation ago That's like saying "I'm not prejudiced, I just have normal opinions on race/homosexuality for someone born 200 years ago". The relevant baseline - even for specific cohorts - is where people are *now*.
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch > Assuming left-right spectrum is still a useful model. Political attitude space is two-dimensional. So, yes, lazy use of "centre" is misleading (could mean the exact centre of the square, could mean any of the points along a diagonal between the two major party corners ...).
@MariosRichards @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch To pretend that things move around an apparently unchangeable 'centre', or a fixed spectrum between two historically stable political paradigms, is a fallacy. People who voted for the post-Brexit Tories are disillusioned with the Tories' failure and are looking elsewhere.
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch > To pretend that things move around an apparently > unchangeable 'centre' Nobody does that. Not political scientists, not even non-specialists who use the term far too loosely!
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch The 'constants' are that human political attitudes stably vary in two dimensions - e.g. a socially liberal/economic left position in the 1960s UK is not the same as one in the 2010s UK - but the axis of variation is the same.
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch Democratic parties move around in this space of human attitudes - sometimes *a lot* (US is an obvious example - Republicans were the party of abolition and the federal state, Democrats the party of confederate slave owners).
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch In any given state at any given moment you'll have a major axis cutting across the political compass between the two largest parties/blocs - there's no guarantee that'll be the same Lib-Left - Auth-Right axis that applies in the UK right now.