@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch The broader context is not "Economics no longer matters in politics" but "People who aren't specialists have gotten used to gender divides having a near-zero effect on political behaviour, even if it *only* shifted to gender having half the impact of inc. that wd be a big deal!".
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch (I think there's a legitimate question over whether this is a shift in how *public attitudes* divide by age/gender or whether it's that political divides have shifted to reveal something that was always there)
@MariosRichards @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch All I'm curious about is why* these trends are appearing, and not imply anything. In UK women outnumber men significantly now in university education, maybe it has nothing to do with it, or maybe there is some cultural marker, esp if as you say income is less significant.
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch It's reasonable to wonder whether it's mediated by education but when I add it into a regression the gender effect doesn't disappear.
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch FWIW, education differences appear to be *downstream* of value differences (uni doesn't make ppl socially liberal so much as being socially liberal makes you more likely to want to go to uni).
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch > why* these trends are appearing Contra @jburnmurdoch I start from the position that gender gaps in political support are a long-term feature of radical/far right parties as far back as they've been studied.
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch So, to explain a gap appearing in *political support* you don't need something new to be happening *among voters*, you just need something new to be happening in politics - e.g. centre-right parties getting closer to radical right parties/radical right parties growing.
@MariosRichards @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch Some would argue that where 'radical' right parties such as Reform are is just where 'conservative' parties would have been a generation ago. Which would bring scrutiny on what exactly constitutes the 'centre' parties. Assuming left-right spectrum is still a useful model.
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch > would have been a generation ago That's like saying "I'm not prejudiced, I just have normal opinions on race/homosexuality for someone born 200 years ago". The relevant baseline - even for specific cohorts - is where people are *now*.
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch > Assuming left-right spectrum is still a useful model. Political attitude space is two-dimensional. So, yes, lazy use of "centre" is misleading (could mean the exact centre of the square, could mean any of the points along a diagonal between the two major party corners ...).
@jjcharlesworth_ @jburnmurdoch @ProfTimBale @BESResearch But characterising radical right parties is not particularly hard - they sit in the same space they've always sat in between far right parties and centre-right parties.