Decamp @LSinnv

Healthcare investor New York Joined May 2015

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Decamp @LSinnv

a day ago

@Biohazard3737 For me some part was shift in long term yields, first arriving in April. The sub $1b bios in particular, always canaries in coal mine, started their downtrend, many now -50%+. Sector also had a big run, and AI sucked out the air from everything. Now hopefully other way for a bit

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a week ago

@clinmean I’d say that the 2 CD122 stocks, $FBRX and $TRAX, are the most asymmetric near-term bets I’ve seen for a long while. Feel v high chance FBRX shows a clean signal, week 12-24. Meanwhile all vitiligo (and Alopecia) out of price, and investors waiting for overhang to get out of way

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a week ago

@chaotropy Chill, there were many institutional investors who sold $ABVX near or at bottom. A generalist, who asked for a view, said that markets could not be that inefficient, all the information was in public. Wouldn’t even listen to the 3-day rule of doing nothing in a biotech crash

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a week ago

@A_May_MD @SylvainGariel The panic really started when the dunce KOL on $ABVX call said the cancer number and mix was not a problem for him, but maybe the FDA would call an adcom because the MoA was new. I think he felt he sounded scholarly and objective. He was not a stock market wiz for sure.

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2 weeks ago

@a_a_free nice list. Feel $FBRX unlikely to ‘fail’, per se, in vitiligo. It’s signal-seeking study and much shorter than TEVA’, but adjusting for time its potential should become clear. Mgmt talking down trial is one reason for price volatility, but could be a case of over managing street

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4 weeks ago

@jayg327 estimating closer to 15-17mths myself. Been surprised by relative limited sell side light on this. $CELC.

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4 weeks ago

@Biohazard3737 long believer in “the trip is the treatment” for psychedelics at least of the 5-ht2a axis (NMDA?). Can’t imagine roll back of centuries of writing. But equally interested to understand if the hallucinations can be dialed out significantly (eg Glilgamesh). newyorker.com/culture/annals…

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2 months ago

@AppleHelix Calypo’s MAbs 2017 paper was for me a starting point into the IL15 space. Very good work especially after AMGN 714 development almost derailed the field pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC55…

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2 months ago

@A_May_MD @oakazaki There’s a creeping narrative, at least for $ORKA and $SYRE, that by delivering higher, prolonged, drug exposures they may deliver greater efficacy -that ABBV and TAK left “efficacy on the table”. There are some stray empirical findings of this but the mechanism is not clear.

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Decamp @LSinnv

3 months ago

@AB1001_disciple @peter_mantas yea but value peace of mind. But on this specific point the Roche HD trial suggests pbo response vanish by year 2, so longer natural history needs regulatory deliberation, while acknowledging residual bias (if one believes in flexibility; + nfl and high vs low dose findings)

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3 months ago

@AB1001_disciple @peter_mantas Probably because many glad to see this crazy period over, and tired. Arguments about evidentiary standards always good, but institutions can’t survive ad hoc personality-driven process, ill-defined regulatory frameworks, and poor leadership

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3 months ago

@BiotechAnalysst Whoever this official it would make sense for the FDA to review the entire AMT-130 program before arriving at such a judgement (not the top line 1-yr CT that Makary blanketedly judged). Would then be more palatable and less arbitrary. $QURE

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3 months ago

@BiotechObserver all that we have been seeing -across rare diseases including amt130 & bitopertin recently- isn’t random noise, its a clear articulation of views that the AA pathway itself, as it stands, is not very valid (although an argument that its way overused can have merit)

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3 months ago

@BiotechObserver $QURE for me is (yet) another example of technically defensible FDA positions but misses the philosophy of AA and reg flexibility. Demanding something like the 1-yr control to be met is a circular evidentiary standard that makes AA structurally impossible for many rare diseases

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3 months ago

@BrianSkorney @BentheFidler @RxRegA @peterbachmd abs. It’s ad hoc regulatory science unmoored from policy and philosophy, whatever the individual decisions. Then a FDA commissioner points to disgruntled investors without regard to any coherent policy around how or why (or not) investment might play a role in shaping innovation.

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4 months ago

@Biohazard3737 It’s been impossible to get my tech investor guys understand the biology bottleneck for AI in drug discovery. They see the world in software terms with “scaled” emergent solution that will ‘disrupt’ the industry. Last couple of weeks though they’re running in for bios to buy.

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4 months ago

@Biohazard3737 A couple of other Abs and contracts with Novartis and Amgen, but GB is still stuck protein engineering stage, with ‘me-too betters’. My guys on tech side keep lecturing me on AI-biotech disruption (words like “singularities and non linear” abound); and Gen B is my fave rebuttal

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5 months ago

@Prof_Oak_ yea but the $RAPT slides at JPM were pretty good. It included a highly dense page on the commercial opportunity. At the time I wondered why show such a slide, despite the solid accompanying narrative - but, of course, they had made it earlier for GSK!

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5 months ago

@doepke_michel been great to see $IONS strategy maturing. If there’s any major hiccup on ‘horizon’ it’s the Lp(A) outcomes in 1H. Real chance it doesn’t cross 15% RR in pop >70mg/dl with improving standard of care/time delay. Strong believer in Lpa but trial exigencies may not fully capture it?