LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro

#gold #gc #xauusd #gdx My gold model have triggered an alert. The 4100 support defended, The 4H bullish engulfing candle emerged on GC, the momentum reversal on GDX is forming, the panic/capitulation volume spike last two days --> we are facing a major reversal here on GOLD. I scaled in positions on GDX and GLD with 20% NAV. Let's see if this set-up holds.

@TheApeOfGoldST An interim bounce could happen anytime soon for sure. But the long term structure is still bearish bias

#GDX #GLD Closed my GDX puts for a 130% gain. Its been a great run, but gold may be carving out an interim bottom here. I'll flip to the long side once I see impulsive upside momentum.

#SMH #semis Semiconductors got hit hard this week, with SMH down 15% in just five trading days. However, the 1D 20EMA and the 4H 50EMA both held, even with yesterday's heavy volume. The current SMH setup looks like a déjà vu of February 4, 2026: two consecutive selloff candles → market panic → capitulation → reversal → retest of the previous highs. A very similar pattern also played out in the gold market earlier this February. I scaled into a small SOXL position to trade this setup. My stop loss is the recent low. Let's see if it holds.

SPY 4H volume exceeded 7M, the highest since March. Volatility is coming back to life. great.

@cryptorover short-duration Treasuries.

@maneco1964 LMAO, some algorithms must be getting liquidated right now.

#gold #xauusd #gdx Gold and gold miners (GDX) is tanking. GDX down another 3%. The GDX/GLD ratio finally filled the 0.1946 gap today after 3 attempts over the past 3 months, almost exactly following the path outlined in our analysis: lljquantmacro.substack.com/p/weekly-cap-g… I'm still holding my GDX puts and will wait for a clear momentum reversal before taking profits. Next, gold will likely retest the next key inflection level around $4,100, which corresponds to the lower end of the March 23 candle. How price reacts there could tell us what comes next.

@wallstengine US is good at inventing and China good at scaling. It would be interesting to see how this AI infrastructure racing end up with.

Gold, stocks, and Bitcoin all suffered brutal selloffs as rate-hike expectations surged. I run analysis and got some interesting statistics: • Gold is approaching a major support zone near the March lows • QQQ just triggered one of the rarest bearish setups in 26 years of history • Bitcoin and USDT dominance are reaching historically extreme levels that have often preceded sharp relief rallies The big question: Are we seeing a September 2020-style shakeout... Or the first crack of something much bigger? Free analysis below: lljquantmacro.substack.com/p/weekly-cap-g…

@zerohedge First VR, then AI. I don't know why Zuckberg were so easily fooled by Alexandr Wang and burnt 100B dollars for nothing.

@wallstengine More pain is coming. Google and AI IPO are fighting for the last drop of liquidity. Can't wait to see who wins eventually.

@Mr_Derivatives lots of shake outs happening this month. It's basically 2011 Deja-vu again, gold will probably hit the lower shadow (i.e. 4100) of the March low soon, then bounce again.

$QQQ just printed one of the rarest bearish set-up in its entire history: Just three trading days ago, QQQ made a fresh all-time high, then today we are already nearly 6% below that ATH. I screened 26 years of QQQ history for similar events and found only two similar technical patterns in history. • April 2000 (Dot-com collapse) • September 2020 (Post-COVID tech correction) For me, it says the market just entered a regime that is historically very uncommon... The interesting question is, are we heading to which future/history:? A) another September 2020 style shakeout before many many ATHs or B) the first crack in a much larger correction just like 2000? History says these events are rare. Unfortunately, we're already living through a rare timeline, aren't we?

#bitcoin Bitcoin formed a hammer candle with a long lower shadow on the 4H chart last night, accompanied by decent volume. We are now approaching the $60K lifeline, marked by the February 5, 2026 low, where I expect at least a short covering rally. Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin has fallen back to 2024 price levels, while the weighted RSI (Money Flow Index) is near historical lows. The probability of a short term relief rally appears quite high. I am allocating 0.5% of NAV to long IBIT call options expiring next week. It is either a 10x return or a complete loss. A perfect use of my lunch money. 😉

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Surprisingly, the bitcoin is holding pretty well around 65-66k. I closed all my puts just now and I'm waiting for momentum reversal to get in IBIT longs. It may take another day for the trade to materialize, but the reward risk ratio is pretty good here, if the signal triggers.

#BTC #IBIT Bitcoin is in free fall as both the narrative and marginal liquidity continue to weaken. From a technical perspective, the structural damage that began in October 2025 remains intact. The market's reaction around the 65,000 support zone will likely determine the next major move. My IBIT puts are currently up 50% to 70%. I'll likely take profits on the June contracts if I see signs of a momentum reversal. Longer term, a decisive break below 65,000 could open the door to a move toward 58,000. I will be holding August puts until that hits, or any major recovering signals.

@cohamizu1 I have the same wave counts. Also there is a bullish engulfing candle this morning, which usually is a strong signal in this type of structure.

@BTCBreadMan Don't worry, you are not left behind. Your imaginary friends will lose their AI money soon enough.