The United States Dollar (USD) is the most significant currency because the world merely operate on it for easy transactions. This is why the interest rate by the FED is the most significant to global market because it affects rates of other nations as well
Hence, it matters a lot. This is why there are great macro hedge fund managers/traders out there that had tremendous successes in the market. They understand how the economy of a nation should operate and how that affects liquidity, which is the interest rate of those nations.
If you are in this game and think that the interest rate (Federal Funds Rate) is not important, then you should sit back and have a deeper review. Reason why interest rate significant is because it controls liquidity (how easy money can be borrowed) in the market
In the case that the ceasefire is not reached by next week. The market will likely drop, and this should be a good time to buy if you can time the strong levels. The rest of the thesis is same as above
x.com/KeexePort/stat…
This thesis is still intact. It is clearer than ever now the POTUS (Donald Trump) totally (99%) does not want the war to continue, and the Iranian side seems not to want it to be attacked again.
x.com/KeexePort/stat…
I do really still believe in this thesis and it would be potentially a tremendous gain if you can time the near bottom of the market in the next 2-3 weeks. I genuinely see Warsh's rate hike is pretty low given the fact that Trump appointed him
@blknoiz06@RamenXBT 57 is a psychological level where buyers and sellers are thinking of transacting. You are just trying to catch the 0.10 for the wick of those transactions. Seems like you know this and just tried to outsmarted it but it turned out the market is efficient this time
The situation is so bad that the public/private credit could default after a week the war started again. Rate hike is absolutely in the book at this point, and yields would be substantially high as the inflation expectation is huge.
x.com/KeexePort/stat…
I do really still believe in this thesis and it would be potentially a tremendous gain if you can time the near bottom of the market in the next 2-3 weeks. I genuinely see Warsh's rate hike is pretty low given the fact that Trump appointed him
The chance of hiking rate is in fact low consider Trump appointing Warsh and Warsh's view on shrink the balance sheet but lowering the interest rate. This combine with the news of SpaceX IPO will help to make a long thesis valid in the next week or two after market drops
Seems like the bullish/long is valid if you try to wait for a buy when the market dips, because the meeting is likely to be bullish sentiment with holding rates steady. Even a hold on rates would be a bullish sentiment for the inflation report right now
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