Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

What legendary investors actually did. The real trades, the real losses, the real rules. Free daily email ↓ investorsdecoded.substack.com Global Joined March 2026

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Cliff Asness built AQR into a $40 billion fund. In August 2007, every quant model on Wall Street reversed simultaneously. AQR lost half its assets. Asness addressed his team over speakerphones because no room was big enough. AQR rebounded 180% in three years.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Seth Klarman's Margin of Safety was printed in a run of 5,000 copies. Secondhand copies sell for over $1,000. Baupost Group has compounded at 20% per year since 1982. The rarest investing book was written by one of the most consistent investors alive.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

I write about what legendary investors actually did. Sourced. Verified. No fluff. One email a day, free: investorsdecoded.substack.com

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

In 2026, you can backtest a strategy in seconds. Seykota did it with punch cards in the 1970s and still beat almost everyone. The bottleneck was never the technology. It was whether the person running the system could resist touching it when things got uncomfortable.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Ed Seykota turned $5,000 into $15,000,000 over 12 years. He did it with a computer the size of a refrigerator, punch cards, and exponential moving averages. No Bloomberg terminal. No API. No backtesting software.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

93% of goalkeepers dive left or right on penalty kicks. The optimal strategy is to stay in the center. They dive because standing still feels like doing nothing. Fund managers do the same thing after a bad quarter. Montier calls it action bias.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Rob Carver managed billions at AHL before going independent. His conclusion after years of research: "The marginal value of adding additional rules is low." The simplest system that captures the core idea wins. Complexity is a tax on returns.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

David Einhorn published his analysis of Lehman Brothers a year before it collapsed. The CEO tried to destroy him. The SEC investigated him. They found nothing. Lehman went bankrupt. "I'm not critical because I am short. I am short because I am critical."

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Fama and French proved in 1992 that beta doesn't predict returns. The variable the entire finance industry used for 30 years explained almost nothing. Size and value explained over 90% of return differences between portfolios.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Howard Marks: "The pendulum never stops in the middle." Markets oscillate between euphoria and panic. The money is made at the extremes. The problem is that extremes feel like the new normal while you're living in them.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Joel Greenblatt's Gotham Capital returned 40% per year from 1985 to 1994. Then he gave the money back. Not because the strategy stopped working. Because managing other people's emotions was harder than managing the portfolio.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Nick Leeson was 28. He controlled both trading and settlement at Barings Bank Singapore. He hid $1.4 billion in losses in account 88888. When the losses surfaced, they destroyed a 233-year-old bank in one week.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Paul Tudor Jones predicted Black Monday on a PBS documentary — then tried to destroy every copy. investorsdecoded.com/free/tudor-jon…

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Paul Tudor Jones: "Every day I assume every position I have is wrong." He's been doing this since losing 60-70% on a cotton trade at age 24. The paranoia isn't a character flaw. It's a risk management system.

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Investors Decoded @InvstorsDecoded

2 months ago

Stanley Druckenmiller went 30 consecutive years without a losing year. Then he put $6 billion into tech stocks in March 2000, right at the top. "I knew I was dead." The best track record in history was nearly destroyed by one lapse in discipline.