I think it’s cool that funds like Situational Awareness can exist in America and that there’s a market for them.
But the outcome was never about being right or wrong on AI. At ~150% vol, variance drag alone is ~113%/yr, and risk of ruin is roughly a coin flip over the fund’s life. A child can do the math on a napkin (Claude did it for me: “ruin wasn’t unlikely, it was roughly even money”).
Volatility that high pierces every other fact about a portfolio: the thesis, the timing, the talent. The initial success and the margin call are draws from the same distribution.
cnbc.com/2026/07/30/leo…
FYI, Ceuta and Melilla have been part of Spain since the XVII and XVth centuries.
Anybody saying they are a "colony" of Spain has no clue on the matter.
@davmiranda Mistral tiene poco de startup y mucho de empresa estatal promovida por macron para atraer talento a Francia, con poco éxito hasta la fecha. el tren ya salió hace años y Europa ha condenado a sus ciudadanos a la pobreza económica y tecnológica para las próximas décadas
*LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS SEEKS TO RAISE CAPITAL AFTER AI ROUT - FT
*SITUATIONAL AWARENESS SUFFERED STEEP VALUE DROPS AFTER USING BORROWING TO MAGNIFY AI BETS
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