Will the ACC survive? The easy thing to say is yes or no without any explanation or data behind the answer. When the Pac-12 was struggling to land a TV deal, and I always said no TV deal no Pac-12, they still had football programs that could draw a reasonable TV viewership - OR, WA, WSU, Or State, Utah, Stanford, but the networks decided there wasn’t enough value without the LA market. If the Pac-12 had taken up CW’s offer, the Pac-12 would still exist today. The CW is now the home to some ACC football games. Last summer the ACC had to decide if they wanted to add schools or not. No additions would have led to the death of the conference. The ACC chose to add Stanford, Cal and SMU. Three schools, among others too, that I argued for months that the ACC had to add to survive. I always knew for over two years that Florida State was leaving the ACC. It was just a matter of how and when. I then learned in the springtime about the 7 ACC schools before anyone else on Twitter knew about them. I knew from that day that the clock was ticking on the ACC. Fanbases of any ACC school want into the P2. That is just noise. There aren’t enough spaces or value among all the ACC schools to be added to the P2. Therefore, schools are going to be left behind in the same nature as Oregon State and Washington State but not the same level of dire straits. There was no time to wait for a time of strength to add schools to the ACC. Florida State was looking/talking about submitting the lawsuit in August. If the lawsuit was filed then, would the schools in the ACC have added Stanford, Cal and SMU? Not sure on that answer. The exit of Clemson, Miami, North Carolina and Florida State from the ACC is coming. There are two big questions that will impact if the ACC survives or not. If Notre Dame dissociates itself from the ACC, will the conference survive? If ESPN decides not to extend the TV contract beyond the 2027 date and exits, will the ACC survive? The ACC can survive the departures of Florida State, Clemson, Miami and North Carolina and ESPN extends the TV contract beyond 2027. Currently the ACC has 18 members after adding Stanford, Cal and SMU. All they would need to do is add 1 school to fulfill the number of schools required to be in the conference for the ESPN/ACC TV deal. But what value remains for ESPN to extend the TV contract beyond 2027 without Miami, North Carolina, Florida State and Clemson. If Notre Dame disassociated itself from the ACC after any of those schools left for the P2, what would be the point of ESPN continuing the current TV payment values? ESPN would either arrange a new TV contract or exit all together. IMO, what the ACC can not survive is the departure of those 4 schools and also losing Notre Dame. At that point, the ACC is no better or worse than what is left of the Big 12. In order for the ACC to survive at this point is to add academic based schools and accept the reality that they are not that far from being a G5 conference in terms of overall value to a TV network and also accept that the G5 schools like USF would be on the same level as the rest of the ACC on the football field. What is not sustainable is having Cal and Stanford alone out west for the next 20 years. The ACC will need to decide if adding Big 12 schools, USF, UCONN, and some western based schools over the next 10 years is a priority or watch the ACC wither away into non-existence over the next 10 years. Without the most valued ACC schools, the ACC is now just a Big 12 Twin of Tier1 rejects and an overgrown AAC. The ACC has its own network (well, technically ESPN has it because the ACC leadership was too busy kissing the feet of ESPN employees to setup things the smart way like FOX/Big Ten did) and the Big 12 does not. But that will not matter in the end since ESPN is already just throwing Big 12 football games on ESPN+ to live and die from the lack of viewership. Notre Dame pushed as hard as anyone to have the ACC add Stanford and Cal. In fact, if it was not for Notre Dame, Stanford and Cal would not be 2024 members of the ACC. But keeping things real for what is most likely to happen in the coming years, that Notre Dame 20 percent partnership in dollar value with 100 percent of a vote will end up being the first step in a plan to get out of its commitment with the ACC in football. Such a move would weaken and splinter the ACC. The damage is going to be done. The days are coming when Florida State, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson and Notre Dame football are no longer a part of the ACC. The ACC will survive in “name only” and live just above the current G5 level. The only way the ACC will be able to regrow in stature in the next 20 years is to add a western wing that contains AZ, ASU, Utah, Cal, Stanford, and Kansas. While technically we may not see a death of the ACC in terms of the conference no longer in existence, the death of what is known as the ACC is 100% certain to happen. What is left over may only be 20% of what it is today. Welcome to the world of the P2.
P2 has a lot of dead weight. Need to jettison bottom half, play a short conference schedule for seeding in the CFB Invitational, and pad the rest of the schedule with non P2 schools. Sometime in the future consolidate into a P1. We don't need 30-50 schools involved in a P2 structure when none of those schools add media value or has a chance against the top 12.. Just let the top 12 compete in an media-drive invitational and have an open division championship for rest of the schools.
@Genetics56 You seem awfully certain FLorida State is going to win this lawsuit and the the ACC is not going to sue the B1G for tortious interference. You would probably even be subpoenaed if that happened. I agree this is a fight to the death and there are a lot fewer chairs than teams.
@Genetics56 2027, ESPN and the ACC could put together a deal to keep Clemson, FSU, UNC and Miami. The Big 10 and the SEC have their own cultures, it would be better for the sport to stay beyond the P2.
@Genetics56 The ACC will survive and be home to schools that are comfortable not playing in the P2 but want to still play football. For all the criticism the ACC has been better at the top than even the BIG the last 10 years. That will go away.
@Genetics56 You can survive Clemson FSU Miami and UNC by simply adding Memphis and UConn and a couple more It was a basketball league once don’t forget
@Genetics56 This chart makes GT look actually like they will probably be the new front runners with lameford. Although i would prefer GT to the b1G with fsu over fsu and miami. for rivalry reasons.
@Genetics56 I think everyone overestimates the value UCONN football brings to the table for any conference.
@Genetics56 18-TEAM MAJOR CITY FOOTBALL LEAGUE Louisville, Atlanta (GT), Pittsburg, Dallas (SMU, TCU), Boston (BC), Houston, Denver (Colorado), Cincinnati, Pheonix (ASU), San Francisco (Stanford, Cal), Miami, Orlando (UCF), Philadelphia (Temple), Tampa (USF), New Orleans (Tulane), Memphis.
@Genetics56 This data is wrong,,. Since it excludes most of the games. If these were the real numbers per game, the ACC would make a fortune.