Jim Rasor @Forecaster

FXing for SIL since 1987. Went to college to learn how to help farmers find better weather info. Still pursuing that goal. WKU UNCA jimrasor.com Carterville, IL Joined December 2008

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

23 hours ago

Cooler than normal conditions locally appear in multiple solutions for mid June. The brief drop appears related to an increased chance of widespread rain. Recent rain events delivered record setting rainfall to some locations while others remained mostly dry aligning with a recent posts suggesting the event could be spotty. My gauge caught 0.06" while some locations nearby had more than 1". I have less than 1/2" for the month and ground around me is brick hard.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

3 days ago

Run to run trend is wetter in the 2 week projection. 10 of the 50 solutions are drier than normal. This data solution signaling a solid chance of wetter than normal conditions locally in weeks 2 & 3 of June.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

4 days ago

2 week projection still delivers strong wet signal for week 2 of June and week 3 of June. Locally May numbers did not verify well for the wet projections with spotty verification and widespread dry. This is a post to look back on week 4 of June to see how it verifies. July and August dry signals make the time period and solution of this chart critical for lower Ohio River valley operations IMO. There is sign of convection (thunderstorms) all through this data so spotty verification will not surprise me.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

6 days ago

@LisaCameBack @CNN @jaketapper @JohnBerman @AlexThomp Wrong @ just a farm weather guy over here but I am used to people being mad at me.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

7 days ago

Temperature projection is warmer than normal for the next couple weeks locally. The jump up on the low side to lows in the 70s is related to air you can wear and that humidity could fuel some isolated strong storms in June week 2.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

2 weeks ago

Scattered shower signal through the end of May locally but this data has been trending dryer recently for that period. Second half of the period appears wetter and aligns with 30 day data that continues to present June at normal to slightly wetter than. July and August outlooks consistently dry.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

2 weeks ago

More signal of heat in week 2 of June over the lower Ohio River valley in this 2 week projection. Other solutions display higher temperatures but align with the top side of the probable bar in this multi member data. Lows projected near 70 suggest hot and humid conditions. Need to watch for storm signals.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

2 weeks ago

2 week temperature projection consistent with the early June 'cool snap' lows in 50s but also consistent with other solutions of heat building in for week 2 of June. 90s appear in other data.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

2 weeks ago

2 week temperature projection is strong signal of cooler than normal conditions locally for the first week of June. Continuing the struggle of getting and maintaining soil temperatures. Nice break from A/C as we look at higher utility rates for summer.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

3 weeks ago

Simrad products only delivering part of the story. Rainfall projection for Friday showing local focus of rain in the gauge across SIN and WKY. Parts of SIL could stay dry or only see drizzle. Higher totals (relative) closer to the Wabash and the Ohio.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

3 weeks ago

This is a fair reflection of multiple solutions from 2 week rain projections for the lower Ohio River valley. Overall wet pattern with the period from May19-May25 the focus of the bigger totals. Strong storms are expected with the arrival of the rain chances but temperature projections in the 19-25 window appear more aligned with more general rain showers locally.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

3 weeks ago

Monday rain event looks hit/miss locally with bigger chances to our immediate north. Tuesday event tied to boundary so more consistent solution for rain but still variability in amounts tied to thunderstorm activity and isolated downpours (or not). The increase in the average line from 1.3" to 2.3" from May22-May25 suggests isolated thunderstorm activity could impact some holiday weekend activities.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

4 weeks ago

The dip in projected temperatures on days 1-2 related to another cold front passage. Another dry front leading to lower humidity and increased winds increasing evaporation locally. The projections for the second half of May deliver signs of wetter weather but for the next 5-7 days there is a lot of dry weather in the numbers.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

4 weeks ago

Week 2 data is projecting a wet solution locally and appears tied to an increased flow from the Pacific rather than the Gulf. If you need dry weather, it is in place. If you need wet weather, the chance is in the charts starting around May18 and lingering for a week or so.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

a month ago

10 day rain projection is overall dry for the region. Average is skewed by 1 outlier of the 30 members. 20% of the solutions are 0.10" or less. 30% are less than 0.25". Normal rainfall for 10 days for this period is closer to 1.60" Big warm-up locally is just a few days away.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

a month ago

Medium range projections show consensus in warmer than normal solution returning for 2nd half of May for lower Ohio River valley. Other solutions are warmer than the average numbers in this data but looking at probable solutions in the chart near 90 seems to be a reasonable interpretation starting around May 20. Soil temps and GDD will benefit.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

a month ago

@buchandarr less than 1" here. Week 2 of the data hints at storm activity again with some big isolated cells possible.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

a month ago

There are a couple rain events defined in the first week of the 2 week projection for lower Ohio River valley sites but the amounts run small. Showers around the 9th and 12th may have little impact locally.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

a month ago

@buchandarr Haves and have nots. My location is dry and needs more.

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Jim Rasor @Forecaster

a month ago

There are better growing conditions (temperatures) in the 2 week projections for the lower Ohio River valley but we have to deal with some cool mornings during the next several days. The last 10 days of May are projected (CFSv2) as warmer than normal.