FF @FF_1983

BREAKING: Iran is now threatening to directly strike the UAE and target undersea internet cables, data centers and AI facilities across the region if the U.S. and Israel resume the war, warning the next conflict could extend far beyond military targets, per Press TV. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaee warned: “If another war breaks out, many cables, data centers, artificial intelligence facilities, and other sites in the region will be destroyed and we will confront the enemy with a much broader and more extensive plan.” He added that U.S. assets in the UAE and around the Strait of Hormuz remain “extremely valuable” but are not yet on Iran’s target list, claiming regional cables, data centers and AI facilities are worth over $2 trillion. The threat puts major U.S. tech firms including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle and Nvidia in focus. AWS has reported damage to facilities in Bahrain and the UAE, while the IRGC has already designated 18 U.S. tech companies as “legitimate military targets” in the Middle East.

From Axios: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells Axios the announcement "was news for me. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree."

Trump says Russia and Ukraine have agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.

The Eurotards have a brilliant new plan.

youtu.be/D9JSxCk7F4w?is…

BREAKING: Ukraine will escalate drone and cruise missile strikes on Russia's energy and oil infrastructure through the winter, with Ukrainian military sources saying the Trump administration's attempt to use Russian diesel to lower US prices before the midterms "will bear no fruit," per initial reports. The US lifted sanctions on Russian diesel hours ago, authorizing imports through April 2027, after Trump announced Russia would supply a total of 4.8 million tons of diesel. Russia's refineries are the supply those strikes would be aimed at, and more than 51% of Russia's total oil refining capacity is already offline.

Since the start of the war, and despite the infamous capital raise, Kosmos has traded as pure beta to the oil price. Recently, however, this relationship has started to diverge, just as the physical market, reflected in Dated Brent, is signalling increasing scarcity. Kosmos sells its West African barrels at a premium to Brent futures, a distinction I believe the market is overlooking. As the gap between paper and physical prices widens, Kosmos benefits from stronger realised prices than the headline Brent futures price suggests. Q3 and Q4 will be very strong. On top of that, the company has continued to deleverage throughout this period, while the recovery in the forward curve creates an opportunity to hedge 2027 production at higher price levels. Both developments strengthen the balance sheet outlook and should help mitigate refinancing risks, while improving cash flow visibility for the coming years. There are, of course, other negative factors weighing on the stock. Recent developments at Tullow, the operator of Jubilee, suggest that its equity could be worth close to zero. Meanwhile, higher interest rates are making debt refinancing more expensive, potentially fuelling concerns that Kosmos might need another, albeit smaller, equity raise. My view is that a further capital raise will not be necessary. The market appears to be focusing on financing risks while underestimating the value of Kosmos' physical barrels, the progress on deleveraging and the benefits of a stronger forward curve. If this assessment proves correct, I expect the stock to recover above $3 in the near term, and may even be very conservative. $KOS

Trump announces a big Diesel supply agreement with Russia. About that Russian sanctions bill? Yeah Trumps not going to do anything …

El pasado domingo estuve con @MomentumFinanc3 repasando la evolución de los fondos y las principales tesis de inversión youtu.be/n5QbYe71uZY?is…

Querida familia: Como cada mes, comparto con vosotros la composición de la cartera. En el tercer trimestre de 2026, Castañar IF obtuvo una rentabilidad del 2,51%, acumulando una rentabilidad del 6,31% en 2026. En los próximos días recibiréis nuestra carta trimestral, donde explicaremos con más detalle la evolución de la cartera. Como siempre, quedo a vuestra disposición para cualquier consulta: Jesús Asesor de Castañar IF 📩 Recibe nuestra carta trimestral gratis: castanarfund.com/newsletter/ #NFA

$KOS It’s encouraging to see the market's surprising resilience: Kosmos remains relatively flat, only slightly down, while Tullow is down over 40%, despite premarket indications that Kosmos might be heavily impacted. I wanted to increase my already sizable position, taking profit on the market's ignorance, but the opportunity faded quickly. That said, the current stock price is quite disappointing given oil market conditions—with dated Brent trading at a substantial premium—and the assets performing strongly. Over the coming months, we expect the company to clean up the balance sheet by refinancing all upcoming maturities through 2030 and generating high FCF numbers that will drive the company to beat its leverage guidance. Tullow's stock has plunged after losing an arbitration over $196.5 million in Ghanaian taxes, adding pressure to an already highly indebted company. Its market capitalization now falls short of the arbitration amount it owes Ghana, with net debt around $1.4 billion. Tullow’s situation is widely recognized as unsustainable, prompting plans for either a sale or a capital raise in the coming months. While both options would significantly affect shareholders, a recapitalization appears to be the more favorable outcome. Conversely, credit holders are likely to favor a sale—though this would probably mean minimal proceeds for shareholders, as the only potential buyer with meaningful synergies, Kosmos, isn’t currently in a position to make an offer. Regarding Kosmos, the key issue is ensuring that all parties remain committed to investing in Ghana. Tullow, especially the creditors, Kosmos, and the Ghana government, recognize the importance of ongoing investments in the fields, as returns are realized within roughly 6 months, and just 2 to 3 months given current oil prices. Significant investments have already been made in 4D and OBN seismic surveys, and there is a commitment to a rig for drilling 10 wells, expected to arrive around mid-year, leveraging the prior seismic investments. I had the pleasure of meeting Tullow's CFO, who assured me that all parties are now aligned. Despite potential financial difficulties, neither the creditors nor the government wants to halt investments or repeat last year's mistakes. Therefore, we can expect high production levels from the assets, even if a Chapter 11 scenario occurs. It remains uncertain whether Tullow will manage to recapitalize the company or sell it to a strategic Asian buyer eager to secure high-quality oil. I can envision a scenario where Kosmos becomes the operator, given its proven ability to operate to high standards in some fields in the Gulf of America—unsurprisingly, those that perform best within its portfolio.

🇮🇱 NETANYAHU: ¿GUERRA CON IRÁN PARA EVITAR DERROTA ELECTORAL? The Jerusalem Post, prensa de Israel. 🔮 Crece la especulación de que Netanyahu, anticipando una derrota electoral, podría buscar otra guerra con Irán. 🗣️ Netanyahu: "Tenemos indicios de que, a medida que se acerca la fecha de las elecciones, nuestros enemigos intentarán atacar." 🕵️ Se reunirá esta noche con el líder de la oposición, Yair Lapid, tras "nueva inteligencia" sobre "indicios de enemigos israelíes preparándose para atacar". #Israel #Netanyahu #Irán #Elecciones #Geopolítica

📉 Tullow Oil plc $TLW shares plunged as much as 52% after the company lost a crucial arbitration case over taxes tied to its Ghana oil fields, which account for the majority of its production. The ruling is a major setback for Tullow Oil plc $TLW, which has been relying on cash generated from its core Ghana assets to reduce its heavy debt burden. Shares were still down around 50% in London, sharply reversing a rally that had taken the stock up more than 300% year-to-date earlier this month. 🇬🇭🛢️ #TullowOil #Ghana #EnergyPolicy

📉 Fair Isaac Corporation $FICO cae un 25% después de que la FHFA anunciara que Fannie Mae y Freddie Mac adoptarán una cuadrícula unificada de precios hipotecarios que situará a VantageScore junto al FICO Clásico. El cambio permitirá que los prestatarios evaluados con VantageScore alcancen la banda superior de precios a partir de 780 puntos, igual que con FICO, eliminando la diferencia previa de 20 puntos. 💳 Según la información proporcionada, VantageScore cuesta aproximadamente $0,99 por puntuación frente a unos $10 de FICO, ofreciendo a los prestamistas una alternativa de menor coste dentro del mismo marco de precios. #FICO #Mortgages #CreditScores

BREAKING: Iran has now started launching anti-ship missiles toward US Navy-escorted vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with initial reports indicating missile launches from the direction of Qeshm Island and violent explosions heard in the Strait. The launches mark a third straight night of IRGC Navy attacks on shipping through the waterway, coming hours after UKMTO reported that a Kuwaiti VLCC was struck by a suspected unknown projectile while transiting the Strait, triggering a large fire.

BREAKING: Trump administration urges the EU to draw down its emergency diesel reserves to lower global prices, and says several EU member states have not released as much oil and refined products from their reserves as they promised, per Reuters. It comes hours after the US announced a release of up to 40 million barrels from its own Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which sits at 283 million barrels, about 31 million above the congressional minimum. The US is asking Europe to empty its emergency diesel reserves while preparing a 90-day ban on its own diesel exports, of which Europe is the largest buyer, and where the shortage is already the worst in the world.

¿Alguna small cap global (market cap<2,5bn) con catalizador o situación especial interesante de analizar?

Sweden wants #uranium. That does NOT mean it wants Häggån or Viken. That distinction is getting harder to ignore. When I looked at Sweden in June, the uranium ban was being removed, but Aura Energy and District Metals still had a separate problem: both of their big Swedish projects sit in alum shale. Since then, the uranium reforms have come into force. Laramide Resources has now entered Sweden too. But it bought conventional uranium exploration ground, not alum shale. At the same time, Aura’s Häggån still has no material permitting breakthrough, while District has continued advancing its Swedish work. Politics also moved. The Social Democrats won 99 seats and are now trying to form a government. They campaigned against alum-shale mining and for a municipal veto. Important caveat: there is no new alum-shale veto yet and no new government programme. But Sweden is already running a separate inquiry into stronger municipal powers over shale projects. So Swedish uranium is starting to split into two very different stories: uranium itself is becoming easier to invest in, while alum shale still carries its own political baggage. I went back to our June thesis and looked at what actually changed for Aura, District and the new entrant Laramide. The full article digs into whether Sweden’s reopening really improved the investment case for Häggån and Viken, or whether investors now have another way to get Swedish uranium exposure without taking the same shale risk. @LaramideRes @district_metals @aee_auraenergy

John Galt @FreiburgCoffeeC

2 weeks ago

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The oil market manipulation continues... We are being flooded with fake news reports that a deal is near... even though Iran has already denied them. The Houthis blowing up Saudi energy infrastructure doesn't seem to matter. This shitshow will become much worse before it gets better. Brace for inflation.

💳 PayPal Holdings Inc. $PYPL is reportedly attracting fresh takeover interest from an unnamed West Coast technology company evaluating an all-stock acquisition, reviving M&A speculation around the fintech group. Shares rose about 1.2% from $53.03 following the report. The new interest comes after the previously reported Stripe–Advent consortium abandoned discussions over a potential $53 billion cash takeover, which had considered a price of up to $68 per share before talks reportedly stalled over a $2 billion break fee. The latest suitor is said to be considering stock consideration, while PayPal Holdings Inc. $PYPL reportedly favors an all-cash transaction, creating a potential hurdle to any deal. With PayPal’s market capitalization around $45 billion, confirmation from the company or the unidentified bidder would be the key next development. 📈 #PayPal #Fintech #Mergers