1/x Long tails in #exploration If you invested 100K AUD into each of 110 #ASX #discovery announcement containing "significant" or "major" discovery between 2010-2021 and held them for 1 year, you would have made 4.06 MAUD in profits. Sounds great right? #mintwit #mining
2/x In april 2014 your strategy is 500K below water. You get up in the morning to make a strong cup of coffe and smash another 100K on the table on the next "significant discovery". The investment you just made will go on to lose 98.8% of its value over the next 12 months.
@StrategiesQuant @PilbaraWandy Da fuk, what am I missing, 100k x 110 is $11m. Either way this strategy with that kind of drawdown is absolutely not feasible.
@StrategiesQuant Interesting numbers! What did you use as the entry price? Normally immediately after a major discovery NR is released, price jumps tens of % points, and basically none gets to buy before the new plateau if you weren’t in since before the NR. That can have huge impact on final 💰
@StrategiesQuant wats the index universe?