Director of Research at O’Keefe Stevens Advisory
Substack: https://t.co/SkPeA1ADBn
Disclosure: https://t.co/vMJlnRo4xMokeefestevens.com Rochester, NYJoined April 2022
@Akshay__Parekh Still think they can get to $1.25+ in EPS by the end of 2027 - 18x = $22.50 - if you think they generate what consensus currently has them at, it's not that interesting.
$CALY - Pays off the remaining portion of the Term B loan. If consensus is roughly right and CALY should generate ~$300m of FCF in Q2, in April they repurchased $37m of stock, assuming Q2 to date they generated $170m of FCF, this means they repurchased another $46m in May. Expecting them to fully use the $200m buyback during 2026, re-up it when they report Q4.
does anyone know someone at @X who can help?
Please retweet for visibility @MinotLightCap@InsideArbitrage@OSA_Rochester
about a month ago, my account @stockspinoffss got hacked and I've been trying for a month to get it back.
I have proof in my original email that:
Potentially very interesting development at $CMP - In talks to contribute its Great Salt Lake land, where they tried harvesting lithium (ultimately shut down due to costs + government battles). Would receive royalty payments, and importantly, would fund no CAPEX. The market should not put much weight on this, given the previous issues; however, it is a nice call option. Mgt continues to execute.
@jonathanrwall Callaway hinted at moving to 2 year cycles. Turns out the difference from one year to the next is minimal. Allows for better inventory management and elongated sales cycle - thus less discounting.
@valu_investor99@Nate93658762 Thesis is playing out better than expected. The true downside ($0) is off the table from the tin building repurposing. 250 water closed. Real estate plays usually are fairly boring. It’s not a 1 qtr story. It’s a gradual build up over the next 7 qtrs.
Think $CALY is an obvious sell-side upgrade candidate. Rev/EPS positive revisions + stock up + potential upside to consensus remains = decent setup for someone to flip from neutral to buy.
While today's move is more than I expected, the opportunity (IMO) turns to the SG&A line. SG&A has kept pace with sales growth since 2018 (same business model/segments). Legal/IB fees should be coming out of the cost structure now that sales are behind them. I have to imagine they can find other cost cuts stemming from technology improvements (AI).
This is a boring, easy story, where management still has plenty of opportunities in front of them. O - and LIV going away at year's end (hopefully) should drive more engagement.
$CALY - Monster quarter, acting on the buyback, keeping the story clean. Once again, Chip leaves out Ogio from his remarks. Increasingly confident that this segment is sold, plow the proceeds into buybacks.
$CMP - After getting kicked from the S&P 600 small-cap index a few years ago, Compass is now borderline eligible to be re-added. They meet all requirements (marginally profitable over the last 4 quarters) but are on the smaller market cap size of current index constituents, which might delay the addition.
@unciacapital Any thoughts on the guidance? I know they talked about the comp vs. last year but trying to figure out how the business decelerated so much.
$LUCK - Good to see them reverse course and begin to close a location. Believe they have now closed 2 centers this year. What was a growth-at-all-costs mindset is now shifting.
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