Takis D. @Dimitakis

@paulg Also reading about this unique era, while having a discussion with my ChatGPT assistant. For maps I still look for in the literature- but for “probable imagery” it’s doing pretty good. i.e. Birds Eye view of Thessaloniki right before its first fall to the Saracens (904)

Kimi K3 may be an important inflection point for AI. Potentially negative for Anthropic and OpenAI while being net positive for essentially every other company in the world. I mean that very literally. Although the real “Sputnik moment” would be an open-source frontier model that was also token efficient unlike Kimi K3 which is 50-70% more expensive to run than GPT 5.6 per Artificial Analysis. Rationale:   A world where there are only 2-3 dominant frontier labs with 90% inference margins is net negative for every other layer while being awesome for those 2-3 labs. Those labs would become monopsonies for power, data centers, semiconductors and hyperscalers and would obviously vertically integrate over time into all those layers while also completely subsuming the application/software layers.    Anything that lowers margins and increases competition at the model layer is good for every other AI layer: power, semiconductors, hyperscalers, neoclouds and yes even software.   This is why Jensen is so supportive of open-source. An open-source model requires the *exact* same amount of compute to run as a closed frontier model of similar size and architecture. Kimi K3 is roughly the same price as GPT 5.6 Terra on a per token basis, which actually suggests that it is less computationally efficient as I am sure that GPT 5.6 is priced to a higher margin than K3. And given that K3 is a token wastrel, i.e. token inefficient, it is significantly more expensive per task than GPT 5.6 and Grok 4.5, which are much more token efficient. Cost per token and token efficiency (i.e. intelligence density per token) are the drivers of intelligence per unit of cost. The winning AI companies will be those that offer the most intelligence per $ over time.   Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at every part of the infrastructure layer and is a godsend for software. This can happen either through open-source models like K3 at the frontier *or* having a vertically integrated model company like Meta, SpaceX or Google at the frontier. Both outcomes result in a lower margin % at the model layer as vertically integrated model companies don’t really care where the margin $ come from. This is why it was so painful for OpenAI and Anthropic when Google was right there with them from a model competitiveness perspective and why Grok 4.5 and Muse 1.1 were just as important as Kimi K3. 
The reason Kimi K3 is only *potentially* negative for Anthropic and OpenAI is 1) the @ericvishria point that the Claude and ChatGPT products and harnesses may be more important than their models today and 2) the hypothesis that they have much more advanced model checkpoints internally that are already being used for RSI. In the latter scenario, reaching RSI even a few months ahead of other labs might be enough to cement a permanent lead. Time will tell on both points. And likely fairly quickly. Caveat would be that since Kimi K3 is not token efficient and thereby actually more expensive than ChatGPT 5.6, we may need to see a more token efficient open-source model at the frontier or see Grok 5/Composer 4/Muse 2 at multiple points on the Pareto frontier for this potential risk to Anthropic and OpenAI to play out. And I am sure they will both vertically integrate as quickly as possible while continuing the product/harness strength they have shown over the last 8 months.

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@tasoskyriakidi Από 45% NPLs σε 3.4% και πιστωτική επέκταση διπλάσια του ευρωπαϊκού μέσου όρου - το bull market narrative κρατάει καλά!

Amen

DHH @dhh

2 months ago

In fact, Europeans should be even more dismayed by their stalled-out economy, shrinking international relevance, and subservient military position BECAUSE of its other accomplishments. It's embarrassing for a great bloc to be this feeble!

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The rise and fall of wokeness: DEI commitments in corporate securities disclosures filed with the SEC. To me this seems a trailing indicator; most other measures of wokeness take off well before 2019 and peak in 2020 or 2021. But the shape! That's what a moral fashion looks like.

@DanielleFong @sama 👀🍿🍺

@garrytan lol , so true!

@lindayaX @spikedonline Indeed! Australia’s version results are underwhelming so far. UK version risks the same i.e. symbolic wins, enforcement theater, or escalation with even worse consequences

So true! Now the goal is to build around what humans, institutions, markets, and the physical world will still struggle with after the technology becomes cheap. P.S. and some of the additional things that people will continue to stay timelessly important are human psychology, entropy, scarcity, and the need to convert uncertainty into confidence.

Amanda Orson @amandaorson

2 months ago

The faster technology moves, the more I think about Bezos' question What won't change in the next 10 years? Things I've been writing down over time: - Humans will always need shelter, food, energy, and healthcare. - The desire for ownership and the accumulation of wealth. -

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FYI - In case it’s not known: Greece is the heaven of AC. There’s not a single building/house without at least 2-3 ACs.

@levelsio @levelsio

2 months ago

Added an [ ❄️ Has AC ] filter to nomads.com to find places where over 50% of buildings have AC

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@tobi @jbrunelle Totally agree! You can understand what humanity truly cherishes from seeing what types of architecture are respected and maintained/expanded throughout the centuries. I wouldn’t bet that the left building image would survive more than 30-40 years.

@sama Predict wildfires and warn people accordingly.

@levelsio 🤦‍♂️

The numbers are right, but it’s worth taking into account the nuances. While Greece is surpassing pre-crisis levels, the rate trails the EU average of 76.2%, with youth unemployment at 22.5% which illustrates the fundamental and problematic structural issues in education-to-work transition. Also it takes into account tourism rebound (we can covid issues back then), which skews data.

World of Statistics @stats_feed

6 months ago

🇬🇷 In 2020 Greece’s annual employment rate was 61.1%. In 2025’s 3rd quarter it is 71.3%.

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@nntaleb I already can see AI agents, creating private currencies and a wee doze of chaos… but again, what can happen will happen.

Very insightful but humbly i believe the real story is harsher and more complex. China is indeed trying to harvest geopolitical advantage from U.S. overreach (and this may have some benefits), but this is taking place while simultaneously scrambling to protect itself from the oil, shipping, inflation, and regional-instability shock that this war is creating. From this view that looks less an omniscient chess mastery move and more an opportunistic hedging under stress.

@eoghan What’s your take on your partner network of integrators & consultants? What could their role be like in this new era?

@tobi 😂

@dazhengzhang @taalas_inc lol 😂

This bet is For Sure

Jordi Hays @jordihays

7 months ago

BREAKING: France is going ALL IN on AI with their last €30M 💥

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