DeFi_Machine @DeFi_Machine

🚨 THE FED IS ABOUT TO EXPOSE WHAT IT DEBATED BEHIND CLOSED DOORS. FOMC MINUTES DROP TODAY. FOMC Minutes (September 15-16 meeting), out at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). Three ways this can go: → Hawkish: many officials want more hikes and the Fed is not done. Hike odds jump back up, market dumps. → Dovish: a split, with officials saying one hike may be enough. Odds fall even lower, market pumps. → Neutral: nothing new, and all eyes shift to Thursday 30 year auction and the October 28 meeting. The Minutes are the official record of the Fed debate before the hike. They show who wanted more tightening, who wanted to stop, and how strong the conviction really was. Markets reprice on this within minutes. And the setup is explosive. The September vote was unanimous, 12-0, and 16 of 18 officials expected another hike this year. But since then payrolls printed 29K, Core PCE cooled and consumer confidence collapsed. October hike odds fell to 19.4%. The Minutes cannot show the weak data that came after the meeting. But they will show whether the Fed is still ready to hit harder. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

DeFi_Machine @DeFi_Machine

4 days ago

🚨 FOMC MINUTES AND THE 30-YEAR AUCTION DECIDE THIS WEEK — OCT 5-9 MONDAY, OCT 5 🟡 US S&P Global Services + Composite PMI Final (September) — 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET) 🔴 US ISM Services PMI (September) — 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET) 🟢 China markets closed for Golden Week (through Oct

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🚨 FED HIKE ODDS JUST CRASHED FROM 70% TO 19.4% IN ONE WEEK. HERE IS WHAT CHANGED. A week ago the market priced an October hike at around 70%. Now it is 19.4%. What killed it: → NY Fed President Williams said there is no need for urgency and the Fed has time to gather more information → Williams also said only one more hike may be needed this year, and late this year at that → Consumer confidence collapsed to 81.9 vs 89.2 expected, and JOLTS job openings missed → Core PCE came in at 0.2% vs 0.3% expected → Payrolls printed 29K, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and August was revised down to 133K → Wage growth was just 0.1% on the month → ISM Services missed at 54.9 vs 55.7 expected → Vice Chair Jefferson said the committee may need more time to reach its own judgment But do not celebrate yet: → A hike before year end is still around 84% priced in → The Fed is delaying the next hike, not cancelling it And here is the strangest part: → The 10Y touched 5.35%, the highest since 2002 → The 30Y hit about 5.70%, a 24 year high Hike odds collapsed. Long yields did not follow. When the Fed turns dovish and yields still go up, the problem is not the Fed. FOMC Minutes drop Wednesday at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). Watch how much appetite is left for more hikes. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: ISM SERVICES PMI COMES IN COOL — 54.9 vs 55.7 EXPECTED → ISM Services PMI (September): 54.9 → S&P Global Services PMI (Final, September): 58.8 vs 58.7 expected Services activity is slowing more than expected. Last week payrolls missed at 29K and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Now the biggest part of the economy is cooling too, at least in the ISM survey. That is two signals pointing the same way, and it takes more pressure off the Fed to hike in October, when the odds had already fallen to 14%. Market pumps. Over 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

DeFi_Machine @DeFi_Machine

3 days ago

🚨 SERVICES PMI DROPS TODAY. THE FIRST TEST AFTER THE WEAK JOBS REPORT. S&P Global Services PMI Final (September), 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET). Expected: 58.7. ISM Services PMI (September), 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Expected: 55.7. Previous: 55.4. IF ISM > 55.7 → market dumps IF ISM

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@jeffroartxrpl Welcome !

🚨 SERVICES PMI DROPS TODAY. THE FIRST TEST AFTER THE WEAK JOBS REPORT. S&P Global Services PMI Final (September), 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET). Expected: 58.7. ISM Services PMI (September), 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Expected: 55.7. Previous: 55.4. IF ISM > 55.7 → market dumps IF ISM = 55.0-55.7 → nothing changes near-term IF ISM < 55.0 → market pumps The flash S&P Global reading hit a 59-month high, with services input costs at the highest since November 2022. If ISM confirms that strength, it undercuts the soft payrolls story and puts the October hike back on the table. Over 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

DeFi_Machine @DeFi_Machine

4 days ago

🚨 FOMC MINUTES AND THE 30-YEAR AUCTION DECIDE THIS WEEK — OCT 5-9 MONDAY, OCT 5 🟡 US S&P Global Services + Composite PMI Final (September) — 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET) 🔴 US ISM Services PMI (September) — 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET) 🟢 China markets closed for Golden Week (through Oct

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🚨 FOMC MINUTES AND THE 30-YEAR AUCTION DECIDE THIS WEEK — OCT 5-9 MONDAY, OCT 5 🟡 US S&P Global Services + Composite PMI Final (September) — 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET) 🔴 US ISM Services PMI (September) — 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET) 🟢 China markets closed for Golden Week (through Oct 7) 📊 Earnings: no major reports TUESDAY, OCT 6 🟡 Fed speakers: Williams, Bowman 📊 Earnings: Constellation Brands, RPM International and others WEDNESDAY, OCT 7 🔴 FOMC Minutes (September 15-16 meeting) — 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET) 🟡 Fed speakers: Logan, Williams 📊 Earnings: Levi Strauss, Applied Digital and others THURSDAY, OCT 8 🟡 US Initial Jobless Claims — 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET) 🔴 US 30-Year Bond Auction — 17:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET) 🟡 Fed speaker: Musalem 📊 Earnings: PepsiCo and others FRIDAY, OCT 9 🟡 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (October) — 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET) 🟡 Fed speaker: Collins 📊 Earnings: Delta Air Lines and others Why it matters: Weak September payrolls pushed October hike odds from about 70% down to 14% within days. The FOMC Minutes will show how the committee debated the September hike and how much appetite there is for another one. Thursday's 30-year auction lands with long-end yields near 5.2-5.3%. A weak result would put the bond market back in charge of the week. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 "SAFE" BONDS JUST LOST 35%. "RISKY" CRYPTO KEPT WINNING. WHERE ARE THE EXPERTS NOW? Five years ago, every analyst on TV, YouTube, and in books was preaching the same thing. The 60-40 or 70-30 portfolio was the safe, sensible choice. Bonds were the responsible pick before retirement. Crypto was the reckless gamble you'd regret. Fast forward to today: → TLT, the 20+ year Treasury ETF, is down roughly 35% over the past 5 years, even with dividends reinvested → Crypto has done the opposite, grinding higher through the same period So where are all those analysts now who swore bonds were the safe bet and crypto was the risk? 30-year Treasury yields are sitting near 5.2-5.3%, the most sustained period of elevated long-term borrowing costs since the early 2000s. The 20-year is even worse, trading at 5.64-5.67%, actually higher than the 30-year. That inversion is rare, and it happens because the 20-year never found a natural buyer after the Treasury brought it back in 2020, so the market demands extra yield just to hold it. Buyers ARE still showing up, they're just demanding a much higher price to do it. Every auction at these yields locks in massive borrowing costs for decades, right as the government has to keep issuing more debt to cover the deficit. At this point, the rating agencies should already be cutting further. All three have downgraded the US once, S&P in 2011, Fitch in 2023, Moody's in 2025, and debt has nearly tripled since the first downgrade alone. The current AA+/Aa1 ratings look generous against that backdrop. The next 30-year auction lands October 8. A weak auction here, on top of levels already near 2007 highs, could be the moment this whole thing cracks wide open. Over 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

@JordanLucilus Welcome !

🚨 BREAKING: UNEMPLOYMENT COMES IN COOL — 4.2% vs 4.1% EXPECTED → Non-Farm Payrolls: 29K vs 90K expected → Unemployment Rate: 4.2% The labor market is cracking more than expected. This chips away at the Fed's main argument for staying hawkish, right before the October 28 decision. Market pumps. Over 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

DeFi_Machine @DeFi_Machine

6 days ago

🚨 PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT DROP TODAY ! Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate (September), out at 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET). Expected: 90K payrolls, 4.1% unemployment. IF unemployment < 4.1% → market dumps IF unemployment = 4.1% → nothing changes near-term IF unemployment >

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🚨 PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT DROP TODAY ! Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate (September), out at 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET). Expected: 90K payrolls, 4.1% unemployment. IF unemployment < 4.1% → market dumps IF unemployment = 4.1% → nothing changes near-term IF unemployment > 4.1% → market pumps August came in at a huge beat, 162K vs 55K expected. This is the first real test of whether that strength holds or fades. The unemployment rate matters more than usual this time. Warsh has leaned heavily on labor market resilience to justify staying hawkish. If the rate ticks up even slightly, it chips away at that argument right before the October 28 decision. If it holds or falls, it hands the Fed one more reason to hike again. Over 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

DeFi_Machine @DeFi_Machine

2 weeks ago

🚨 GET READY FOR A BRUTAL WEEK. CORE PCE WEDNESDAY. PAYROLLS FRIDAY. — SEP 28-OCT 2 MONDAY, SEP 28 🟢 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September) — 14:30 UTC (10:30 AM ET) TUESDAY, SEP 29 🟡 US Consumer Confidence (September) — 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET) 🟡 US JOLTS Job Openings

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🚨 BREAKING: ISM MANUFACTURING PMI COMES IN COOL — 54.5 vs 54.8 EXPECTED → ISM Manufacturing PMI (September): 54.5 → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final): 55.9, also came in cool earlier today Both major manufacturing surveys missed today. That's a much stronger signal than one alone, factory activity is actually slowing heading into Friday's jobs report. Market pumps. Over 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

DeFi_Machine @DeFi_Machine

7 days ago

🚨 BREAKING: S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI COMES IN COOL — 55.9 vs 57 EXPECTED → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final, September): 55.9 Factory activity slowing more than expected. This takes some pressure off the hawkish case heading into Friday's jobs report. Market pumps.

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🚨 BREAKING: S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI COMES IN COOL — 55.9 vs 57 EXPECTED → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final, September): 55.9 Factory activity slowing more than expected. This takes some pressure off the hawkish case heading into Friday's jobs report. Market pumps. Over 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

DeFi_Machine @DeFi_Machine

2 weeks ago

🚨 GET READY FOR A BRUTAL WEEK. CORE PCE WEDNESDAY. PAYROLLS FRIDAY. — SEP 28-OCT 2 MONDAY, SEP 28 🟢 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September) — 14:30 UTC (10:30 AM ET) TUESDAY, SEP 29 🟡 US Consumer Confidence (September) — 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET) 🟡 US JOLTS Job Openings

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@brymat26 Not sure what you mean, guess we will find out in the announcement

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP TO MAKE A MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE COMMERCE SECRETARY TODAY 3:30 PM ET (19:30 UTC), Trump appears with the Secretary of Commerce for what the White House is calling an announcement. No details released yet. This comes one day after Trump outlined the rough shape of his AI policy following a private lunch with top tech executives, and launched a new government platform, America.gov With trade, tariffs, and AI all active storylines right now, this could move markets fast depending on what gets announced. Over 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

@DHARMENDRA0562 Yes, cooler inflation takes real pressure off the Fed heading into October

🚨 BREAKING: CORE PCE COMES IN COOL — 0.2% vs 0.3% EXPECTED → Core PCE MoM (August): 0.2% → Q2 GDP Final: 2.2% Inflation cooling more than expected. This takes real pressure off the Fed, building the case for a hold in October instead of another hike. Market pumps. Over 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

DeFi_Machine @DeFi_Machine

a week ago

🚨 CORE PCE DROPS TODAY. THIS IS THE FED'S REAL INFLATION GAUGE. Core PCE (August), out at 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET). Expected: 0.3% MoM. IF Core PCE > 0.3% → market dumps IF Core PCE = 0.3% → nothing changes near-term IF Core PCE < 0.3% → market pumps This is the Fed's actual

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@LuciaClips Agreed, one print does not confirm a trend yet

@OnTwitchChatter Plenty of people think that. Either way, markets trade the headline regardless of whether everyone trusts it

🚨 CORE PCE DROPS TODAY. THIS IS THE FED'S REAL INFLATION GAUGE. Core PCE (August), out at 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET). Expected: 0.3% MoM. IF Core PCE > 0.3% → market dumps IF Core PCE = 0.3% → nothing changes near-term IF Core PCE < 0.3% → market pumps This is the Fed's actual preferred inflation number, more important than CPI for the October rate decision. July's reading came in at 0.2%, so any acceleration here confirms prices are heating back up. Also today: Q2 GDP final estimate, same time. Over 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

DeFi_Machine @DeFi_Machine

2 weeks ago

🚨 GET READY FOR A BRUTAL WEEK. CORE PCE WEDNESDAY. PAYROLLS FRIDAY. — SEP 28-OCT 2 MONDAY, SEP 28 🟢 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September) — 14:30 UTC (10:30 AM ET) TUESDAY, SEP 29 🟡 US Consumer Confidence (September) — 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET) 🟡 US JOLTS Job Openings

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@JordanLucilus Core PCE tracks a broad basket, food and energy excluded. This just means prices rose slower than expected, not that nothing went up