Using our framework, 2023 KC had the most win prob added via luck of any playoff team since 2018. Most significant plays for KC: - BUF missed FG with 1:47 left (+18.7%) - BUF dropped 54 yd pass with 8:23 left (+18.3%) - Recovery of SF muffed punt with 2:42 left in Q3 (+15.6%)
Highest WPA via luck plays from 2018-23 postseason: - PHI dropped pass which was intercepted with 2 mins left in 2018 (+32.7% WP for NO) - NE dropped pass which was intercepted with 8 mins left in 2018 (+28.7% for KC) - CIN made game winning 52-yd FG in 2021 (-27.8% for TEN)
@DataWithBliss How did KC finish in the regular season in this metric
@DataWithBliss KC 3 times in the top 10. Can you still call it luck or already method?
@DataWithBliss What was so unlucky about the 2021 Titans FGA against?
@DataWithBliss Are dropped passes weighted by the degree of difficulty of the catch? Some drops are obviously harder than others, and can be made more difficult by the defense.