Dan @Danspiun
Documenting battles/units in Ukraine; Tracking vehicle losses for Oryx list + WarsSpotting, emphasis on vehicle ID/geo-location. Previous Syria + Nagorno-Kara. Joined June 2016-
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Why have Russian forces advanced in multiple directions and what are the implications? What are the future prospects? Today's analysis by Frontelligence Insight centers on Chasiv Yar, Kurakhkove, and Ocheretyne Before proceeding, please like and share to aid visibility. 🧵Thread
🇺🇦92nd Assault Brigade show the extent of RuAF 2023-24 vehicle losses in a rough 3.5 square km box: north of Zelenopillya to east of Andriivka to west of Odradivka. Rough count: 8x tanks, 27x IFVs + APCs, 1x ARV and 4 soft skins. Also 5 soft skins of undetermined affiliation.…
1070.🇷🇺291st Motor Rifle Regt MIA. including 3 transfered/detached to the 70th or 71st regts. 1) MIA near Robotyne in FEB. 2) Transferred end of FEB from 291st to the 71st Regt, MIA in March. 3) Seemingly attached to 71st Regt, 1st Batt, MIA late March. 4) Seemingly attached or…
If you're the praying type, please keep Elizabeth & her family in your prayers. Honestly odds are she would have been at one of these protests. She was a fountain of love & support for the Syrian's fighting Assad, a constant critic of the Israeli gov treatment of Palestinians,
If you're the praying type, please keep Elizabeth & her family in your prayers. Honestly odds are she would have been at one of these protests. She was a fountain of love & support for the Syrian's fighting Assad, a constant critic of the Israeli gov treatment of Palestinians,
HTS saw Azov steal the EW T-72 and went right we'll do that, but this is Syria so it's a clapped out T-55. But I note the thermal DJI overwatch with great interest, TTPs are spreading
26 April 2024 Russian-occupied eastern #Ukraine Destroyed Russian T-90M This appears to be a previously undocumented loss. t.me/zovchuvashiy/4…
Elizabeth Tsurkov is a PhD researcher at Princeton. She was kidnapped over a year ago by Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq. Yesterday, the flag of the sister organization of her kidnappers was raised at the Princeton protests.
Before and after
ready to join me, BMP-3 4S24 "Kaktus"? the warspotting list awaits you
ready to join me, BMP-3 4S24 "Kaktus"? the warspotting list awaits you https://t.co/kGgacBJU2o
Ukraine's fortifications in Zaporizhzia are steadily expanding, with new positions identified weekly and two main lines forming mirroring the Russian defences. The rear line is more complete although it still largely lacks the 'dragon's teeth' used as a secondary barrier.
Def Mon @DefMon3
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Show me war footage from Ukraine below!
A very clear message from Ambassador Kurt Volker on what to do to ensure Ukrainian victory. Here are the steps: 1/n
4/ The US Administration must lift all artificial and self-imposed limits on aid to Ukraine, providing Ukraine with its longest-range ATACM ballistic missiles. It should stop declaring Russian territory as “off-limits” for Ukrainian targeting.
3/ Now that funding is assured, the US military should flood Ukraine with massive quantities of arms and ammunition, as quickly as possible. Russian forces need to feel a bit of “shock and awe” to understand that the battlefield has now changed, and that time is not on their side
2/ The US Administration needs to send a clear message that America’s objective is a Ukrainian victory. This message needs clear and consistent repetition from the highest levels of the government and must be backed up with the policy decisions necessary to make this a reality.
Why have Russian forces advanced in multiple directions and what are the implications? What are the future prospects? Today's analysis by Frontelligence Insight centers on Chasiv Yar, Kurakhkove, and Ocheretyne Before proceeding, please like and share to aid visibility. 🧵Thread
@PacmanNW9000 It's definitely not very positive, but not grim. Remember, these are potential advances, displaying their aims and goals. They might have resources on paper to do it, but it doesn't mean they will succeed. Rather, it just shows that the risk is real, not merely a theoretical one
13/ It's one of the most favorable situations for Russia. Failing to capitalize on it would be an indication of their inability to achieve their goal of seizing the entire Donbas region in the foreseeable future. This, in turn, could force a reassessment of their own end goals
11/ The situation on the frontline is expected to stabilize with the arrival of new ammunition, weaponry, and freshly mobilized but trained recruits. However, it is unlikely that we will see stabilization anytime soon, as it takes time to arm, train, and prepare new recruits
10/ Overall, due to losses in vehicles and problematic frontline logistics, the Russian army is unlikely to conduct deep maneuvers into Ukrainian territory as they did during the initial invasion stage. Instead, they will likely focus on attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces
8/ Trenches provide good protection, but with the excessive use of munition-dropping and kamikaze drones, it's crucial to have proper top cover for dugouts and trenches, along with concrete structures and drone-catching nets. It requires resources that understaffed brigades lack
7/ Russians are trying to exploit the current unfavorable situation to achieve ambitious operational goals. How did Ukraine find itself in this situation? It's the result of several factors: delayed mobilization efforts, delayed Western aid, and inadequate fortifications
6/ In the Vuhledar-Donetsk area, Russians aim to cut off Kurakhove - a key logistical hub. The establishment of fire control over the road might severe logistics to Kurakhove. The loss of Kurakhove can put the entire grouping of forces in the Vuhledar area into a risky situation.
5/ If Chasiv Yar falls to Russia, particularly the southern part, they could advance towards Kostyantynivka, disrupting logistics for the force south of Bakhmut. The situation could worsen if Russians move from Ocheretyne towards the road as well.
4/ Our assessment suggests that Russians are attempting to flank and launch a frontal assault on Chasiv Yar, similar to Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Additional Russian troops are reinforcing the area, likely aiming to take over the southern and northern sectors of Chasiv Yar.
3/ Our team has received reports of poor communication, coordination, and leadership. These problems are rooted in deeper systemic issues, like personnel shortages and challenges in preparing skilled officers for senior roles promptly and in holding them accountable
2/ Ukrainian forces retreated from Ocheretyne and Solovyove. While the 115th brigade was blamed, the core issue is that many brigades are not in a condition to hold the enemy with disproportional advantage in personnel, artillery, vehicles, and air support along the frontline
If you are born or grew up in a country or possess its citizenship, then it is your country, just as much as it is the country of someone who can trace their family's presence there for generations. This is basic anti-racism.
Regarding the ethnonationalist pissing contest about whether Jews or Palestinians are more 'indigenous' in Israel-Palestine: for those of us who are not far-right racists, the q. is irrelevant. UK has a 'non indigenous' PM; he's not less British than the so-called 'indigenous'.