The U.S. SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) will likely fall to fresh 43-year lows when DOE updates the data in a few hours. To put it in perspective, while a 43-year low sounds daunting, another angle is that it stands at ~47% of capacity.
Hormuz uptick remains fragile
Strait of Hormuz crossings rebounded sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 confirmed transits and a weekend peak of 35 on 20 June, supported by the blockade lift and renewed free-passage signals. Commercial crossings recovered with AIS transponder ons, but volumes remain below pre-crisis norms and caution is still clear: many vessels continue using Iranian and Dark routes while demining remains incomplete. With no new physical attacks since 10 June but diplomacy still fragile, the reopening is delivering a recovery, though likely an uneven one.
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@orrdavid I think it’s so obvious now that oil has to go at least below $65, pre war levels. Administration has to have that, and they’ll get it, no question.
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