$BTC's upside over the past year has only come from Monday's and Wednesday's.
Thursday has been a big red day on average which is something that has been going on for several years already.
Even though these are just averages, it is still good to be aware if you're trading these intra-day moves. I do find it quite useful myself at times.
$BTC During all this, the range high is yet again acting as a resistance and that $72K remains important to watch.
Lower timeframe trend has shifted bearish again since last week's rejection from $76K though so good to keep that in mind.
Range remains in play for now and expecting more chop in this area.
Only interested the moment we trade back to that low $60Ks support area or properly above $72K for more than a day or two.
Lots of misleading headlines from everywhere. Just be careful with these moves, don't get chopped up.
Stick to the higher timeframe moves only.
Sources don't really matter anymore these days either as a lot of misinformation is coming from highest up as well :)
Today's
Lots of misleading headlines from everywhere. Just be careful with these moves, don't get chopped up.
Stick to the higher timeframe moves only.
Sources don't really matter anymore these days either as a lot of misinformation is coming from highest up as well :)
Today's headlines have been a mess.
$BTC Opened up with a new CME gap this weekend which has been closed straight away. This is what we tend to see a lot early in the week.
So no new gap for now. The gap at $84K remains open but isn't relevant as we speak being, so far away.
$BTC The biggest liquidity clusters in this region sit at $72K & $75K.
On the downside, the $64K-$65K region is interesting.
But honestly it feels like the market is just chopping around in anticipation of the next big move. Which likely will come down to whether this conflict in the middle east gets resolved or escalates.
Currently there's a lot of fear for the latter which is why most markets have been selling off a lot the past few trading days.
The goal isn’t to win every trade.
It’s to survive long enough to catch the big ones.
Everyone that has been in this space for a while will tell you that they probably caught at least 1 or 2 really big wins for them personally.
It's these trades/investments, combined with long term exposure to the market, that make the difference in the end.
The Total Combined Altcoin Market Cap is still consolidating around this same area which it has been for the past 6+ weeks.
Price held the trump election breakout level and April 2025 lows but has failed to push higher.
So far the reaction his pretty lacklustre and I'd want to see more strength from this area before getting excited at all.
This would also mean $BTC being able to sustain above $72K+ which is key.
$BTC Back to the middle of the range and the place where most volume has been traded in this area.
Really no clear direction where every breakout has been slammed back down. Meanwhile price seems to love hanging around this same area.
The majority of the top 100 coins remain in the weak area based on the weekly RSI heatmap.
There is no strong direction over the past 6 weeks and most coins are just chopping around during this headline heavy market.
Not a place to do anything but scalp or invest with a long term horizon. Trying to position for larger swing trades has been punished a lot lately.
$SPX Big level for stocks here. Swept the October 2025 lows.
Now down -7.5% from the all time highs. Nothing major just yet but this is a key high timeframe area to hold next week.
$BTC's Q1 is slightly worse than last year's, which was red too.
$ETH Also had a bad Q1 but it wasn't nearly as bad as last year's start as that one was very brutal for ETH with a -45%. Only for it to touch all time highs 6 months later.
This just show you how choppy the past 1-2 years have been with seemingly pretty random 1-2 quarter runs followed by full retraces the other direction.
This is market where you need to be nimble.
$ETH Important retest here at the $2.1K area region.
The initial break above was a good effort by the bulls. But this retest should be holding if the bulls want to see a further relief bounce. Otherwise price would just start carving out another range in this area.
$BTC Weekend time! Price moved slightly right after the close after Trump's message about considering winding down their "operation" soon.
Market all together not really believing many of these headlines these days so we'll see when something concrete actually happens.
For now I doubt we'll see much price action during the weekend as usual. Absent of any major headline obviously.
Enjoy your weekend!
$ETH Looks pretty good as long as it holds on to that 0.03 level relative to $BTC.
Sign of strength would be retaking the ~0.032 level which should also help alts find some relief.
But for that to happen, I think you'd need to see BTC & ETH both find some low timeframe momentum in USD terms first. BTC above $72K and ETH above $2.2K should help with that. Until then, market is very risk off. Especially with all the recent rejections on BTC from that $72K+ area.
$ETH Was able to make its way back above the 0.03 level which was pretty key in the short term.
It traded down in that mini range we saw for about 6 weeks.
Now eyes on this 0.032 area as the high timeframe level to hold back above.
What an interesting trading day this has been.
$BTC & $ETH essentially flat while the rest of the markets are extremely weak into this Friday close.
The past few weeks/months give me similar vibes as during the April Tariff sell off. Crypto sold off a lot way in advance, only to hold steady while the rest of the markets are selling off.
$BTC It is Friday again. Friday's have generally seen a pretty volatile and poor performance from Bitcoin lately.
Likely cause being Stategy usually doesn't bid much during the weekends as far as I know. As well as people hesitant to hold risk over the weekend in this current market environment and high headline risk.
Today has been pretty flat so far while stocks are having a bad day again.
$BTC This was precisely what the bulls needed to prevent.
These Friday moves into the weekend have not been favorable for the bulls at all.
Price now back into the range so I guess we will just keep patiently waiting. I want to see a sustained move above that $72K+ region first
$BTC Interesting price action all together.
- Price fell a lot before, but has actually held steady since the conflict in the middle east escalated. This is while stocks & metals fell.
- We're seeing these minor higher lows and higher highs surrounding what was a big range. The range itself is a bit messy at this point.
- That $72K+ price levels seems unsustainable to hold for the bulls. A lot of supply still seems to be coming in around that area.
- Good chance that we will see a large move occur from this region soon. Upside target would look for $83K-$84K with the downside taking out that $60K wick. Which of those to expect will come down to how price evolves on the lower timeframes. With where price is trading now it's pretty indecisive still. Above $75K or below $65K would give a good idea of where the next higher timeframe move wants to go.
Morale of the story: Don't get chopped up, try to look for signs of strength or weakness on these lower timeframes. Also relative to what other markets might be doing.
Crypto tends to bottom first and it tends to top first.
During phases in the market like this, I like being deployed a certain way:
- Only focused on high timeframe spot holdings (years).
- Enough exposure that if the market goes up, I'd be content.
- Enough cash on the side that if prices keep falling, I'm not close to running out of dry powder and can capitalize on lower prices.
- Be diversified in other markets. Takes away any pressure of crypto needing to perform and just a general safety measure.
In the end the goal is simply to accumulate as much as possible at the lowest possible price.
$BTC If these range breakouts keep failing then it will be hard for a prolonged relief bounce to happen.
All we're seeing now is a sweep of shorts into further downside since this downtrend began.
Low timeframe price action is very choppy and has been for the past 6 weeks. No rush to do anything else but accumulate spot as low as possible for me.
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