$TDW Rayjay takes target to $118 from $97. We continue to see $150-200 per share as our midcycle target. We believe the OSV (and offshore rig) cycle will sustain rates that are a premium to newbuild economics for a sustained period of time. The reason we prefer $TDW is (1) shorter contracts so you get to spot rates sooner vs. drillers (2) management / board with Robbotti (3) M&A story... Hornbeck possible now ... (4) all the other big OSV players are weak (5) biggest fundamental change from prior cycle as NB costs went from $30 mm to $60+ and suddenly this is a "chunkier" asset now that "feels" better. We think $25+ of annual FCF per share is likely...and likely to be sustained for years. Our memo from 2022: drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg… Podcasts: youtube.com/watch?v=2DzTG7… podcasts.apple.com/ee/podcast/jud… $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $BORR $DO
@CorneliaLake This is an S-tier post… recapped thesis, linked memo and podcasts. This post should be on the lot with a six-figure dealer tag, but drive away yesterday