Girish @ConfluenceEdge

MBI reads across the market breadth suggests that broader mkts has Significantly corrected while indices are holding on to their levels. Every time this has happened in the past indices have corrected sharply to match the MBI readings. Just to give you an example, the number of stocks above the 20 MA in the last 5 days have come down from 55% to 42% while the small cap 100 index has just come down by 100 points, less than half a percent. That is the story across MBI parameters. I would be careful from here onwards War has transformed from regime change operation in March to "Free SoH" now. My view is probability of US attemtping "Boots on the Ground" in Southern Iran has increased x.com/ConfluenceEdge…

Girish @ConfluenceEdge

4 days ago

After 2 months of geopolitical theater, I'm finally taking US-Iran ground escalation seriously. The hardliners have convinced Trump that capturing key Iranian islands neutralizes SoH and erodes Iran's leverage. History says they're wrong. Markets don't care. Signal to watch: WTI

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After 2 months of geopolitical theater, I'm finally taking US-Iran ground escalation seriously. The hardliners have convinced Trump that capturing key Iranian islands neutralizes SoH and erodes Iran's leverage. History says they're wrong. Markets don't care. Signal to watch: WTI crude above $88 = real escalation risk priced in. Strategy: • Reduce exposure tactically • Hold conviction positions • No capitulation till crude $88-90 support breaks Actual data point: US targeting civilian infrastructure isn't a threat anymore—it's happening. That's new. Actions > Words. Always. aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/… x.com/i/status/20781…

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

4 days ago

BREAKING: Iran announces the "every port against a port" doctrine in response to the US Chabahar port strike, saying it will strike five specific commercial ports hosting US military infrastructure as retaliation targets, per Fars: 1. Jebel Ali Port UAE, the busiest foreign US

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Daily Soap Opera: Everyday new drama, New topic! I am already feeling sad imagining scenario post 2029.

There is a famous line said by Paul Tudor Jones, "For all the knowledge in the world, I don't understand why any investor would ever buy an asset which is trading below its 200-day moving average." Now with all that has happened for the last one year or so, every time IT sector stocks fall, I see someone or the other write a message saying, "It's a good time or price to buy now that valuations have corrected." OR Somebody says, "This much percent more fall and they will become very attractive with very less downside." Someone says, "If you buy at this price and keep it for three years, no way you will lose money." My point is if you look at the example of Infosys: in February 2025, it crossed its 200-day moving average and closed below it. The price was 1,700. It's been one and a half years and the price is around 1,000 now, still below the 200-day moving average. Its giving no reason why anybody should buy the stock at all. The same story is across the most IT sector service stocks. I didn't buy any IT sector stock in the last two years. Neither does it look like in the next six months I'll get to buy them because something dramatic ({rice upmove that takes them above 200DMA) needs to happen, which means the stock needs to rally 20-30-40% from current levels and close consistently above the 200-day moving average for me to even look at them.

WE all could be watching Walsh's briefcase size at the next FOMC Meet. This is a fun piece of Fed-watching folklore — not a real economic indicator, more of a half-joking ritual that financial journalists and traders kept alive during Alan Greenspan's tenure as Fed Chair (1987–2006). The "joke" logic, as commonly told: **Thicker briefcase = supposedly meant Greenspan was carrying more economic data/briefing materials because he was preparing for a rate change (often interpreted as a hike) — more paperwork implying more deliberation or justification needed for a policy shift. **Thinner briefcase or no briefcase at all = supposedly meant rates would stay unchanged — nothing new to deliberate over, so a "thin" trip to the FOMC meeting. So to be clear: this was never a working market indicator — it's a symbol people use to talk about Fed unpredictability and opacity, both then and (per Walsh) potentially again now.

IT sector Investors buying trough valuations in last 2 years!

@itsTarH Superb Prediction Tariq! And here we were thinking that we won't have to do heavy lifting and can just continue to ride the fruits of labor of someone else.

Adani Group leading momentum: Bullish Thesis Most Adani group stocks are in Stage 2 after multi-yr bases + Jeffries hosted Adani day recently whr many investors attended (which generally leads to investements if thesis holds) + SBI mf/capital and few more large Institutions recently entered Adani stocks for 1st time via block deal => this generally leads to other instituions evaluating the thesis and incr probability of conversion than before (unfortunately its a herd show with one entry leads to many more) I m bullish on adani group stocks esp ADANIENSOL & ADANIGREEN

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New IPO releasing soon to a broker near you 🎉 ZEPTO! Experience the thrill of: ✅ 10-min delivery ❌ Never-recover price discovery Paytm. Honasa. Ola Electric! The holy trinity of "More Hype Less Substance". These three and a few more IPOs were force-fed at insane valuations to gullible investors (institutional as well as retail) who never saw those prices post listing again. To continue the tradition, Zepto is getting ready. Zepto just applied for membership. ₹66,000 Cr valuation. Losses: ₹3,367 Cr per year. Enjoy 🍿

x.com/ConfluenceEdge…

Girish @ConfluenceEdge

2 months ago

Same War. Different Market. Different Outcome. Why context — not just catalysts — determines market direction. Cast your mind back to late March and early April. Missiles were flying. US strikes on oil facilities. Israel opening a new front in Lebanon. Daily headlines designed

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Girish @ConfluenceEdge

2 months ago

US markets were down big.. but that's not important.. the thing to note are:- **the day closed at absolute lows for SPY & Nasdaq without any profit booking **One down day negated 11 days of positive price action **VIX was up 40% and most commodities corrected incl Gold, silver,

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Same Clown, Same Threats: Different Outcomes: In April, markets were ignoring threat and closing at highs everyday & today, similar threats are making us bleed and close at day's lows. Why? Because the market microstructure is way different coming into day vs coming into April.. Its worth investing time into understanding this in more detail!

x.com/ConfluenceEdge…

Girish @ConfluenceEdge

2 months ago

Same War. Different Market. Different Outcome. Why context — not just catalysts — determines market direction. Cast your mind back to late March and early April. Missiles were flying. US strikes on oil facilities. Israel opening a new front in Lebanon. Daily headlines designed

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x.com/ConfluenceEdge…

Girish @ConfluenceEdge

2 months ago

US markets were down big.. but that's not important.. the thing to note are:- **the day closed at absolute lows for SPY & Nasdaq without any profit booking **One down day negated 11 days of positive price action **VIX was up 40% and most commodities corrected incl Gold, silver,

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x.com/ConfluenceEdge…

Girish @ConfluenceEdge

2 months ago

Same War. Different Market. Different Outcome. Why context — not just catalysts — determines market direction. Cast your mind back to late March and early April. Missiles were flying. US strikes on oil facilities. Israel opening a new front in Lebanon. Daily headlines designed

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US markets were down big.. but that's not important.. the thing to note are:- **the day closed at absolute lows for SPY & Nasdaq without any profit booking **One down day negated 11 days of positive price action **VIX was up 40% and most commodities corrected incl Gold, silver, Crude, Al, Cu etc. So this was not an event/war driven downday which can be negated by a headline but in my view start of a downswing/Risk Off in US triggered by economic data ahead of Fed Meet Implications for our markets: We had already seen divergence in main indices where in Nifty firmly below key 21MA while Small & Midcap indices just about hanging on above it. We will definitly have an ugly open. I would be keen to see our markets gap down, trade there and recover to close around day's high on Monday if our upswing is to continue. Else some more days of pain should be welcomed after 2 months of rally

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Same War. Different Market. Different Outcome. Why context — not just catalysts — determines market direction. Cast your mind back to late March and early April. Missiles were flying. US strikes on oil facilities. Israel opening a new front in Lebanon. Daily headlines designed to trigger fear. And yet — the market refused to make a new low. Every dip was bought. Every pause became a launchpad. The tone was unmistakably bullish. Why? Because the market came into that uncertainty wounded. The small-cap index had already corrected ~15% through March. The pain was priced in. Pessimism was thick. So when uncertainty merely sustained rather than escalated, relief buying took over. Markets climbed a wall of worry — exactly as they're built to do. Now cut to today. The same war. The same unresolved peace deal. SOH still closed. Trump still hinting at a breakthrough. Iran still denying. Missiles still striking energy infrastructure. The headlines are eerily familiar. The background is not. Small-caps have screamed 25% higher through April and May. The market had already front-run a peace deal as the base case. Optimism is thick. And now, as uncertainty resurfaces with no resolution in sight, there is no cushion of prior pain to absorb the shock. The asymmetry has flipped. This is the part most traders miss: two identical catalysts can produce opposite outcomes depending on the market's prior journey. It's not just what happens — it's what the market was expecting before it happened. My read: as long as a formal peace deal remains unsigned, June sets up for a meaningful pullback. Not a crash. A reset. The kind that cleanses the optimism that got baked in too early. Markets don't just price news. They price news relative to what they already believed. That gap — between expectation and reality — is where alpha lives. open.substack.com/pub/thechartkn…