Clime @ClimeAM

Australia’s 2026 Federal Budget may go down as one of the most consequential economic moments in recent history. In this special edition of The View, John Abernethy, Michael Baragwanath and Paul Zwi break down the deeper implications behind the headlines, from housing affordability and inflation, to negative gearing, taxation, interest rates and the growing risk of stagflation in Australia. The discussion explores: • Why housing affordability continues to deteriorate • The real impact of tax and trust changes • Inflation forecasts and RBA pressure • Risks facing the Australian economy and share market • Why younger Australians could be most affected • The long-term outlook for investors and businesses This is a serious conversation about the future direction of Australia’s economy and the policy decisions shaping it. Watch the full video here: youtu.be/6nSacu7v2CA?si…

Australia has a real crisis. Our productivity has collapsed. For years I argued the Aussie dollar was undervalued. Now? It’s looking fairly valued… and that should scare you. We’re running a reasonable budget. Government debt isn’t extreme. We have a current account surplus. We have a trade surplus. On paper, the dollar should be stronger. But it’s not. Why? Productivity.

Australia has a productivity crisis and nobody in government wants to admit it. Billions are being spent every year but not to fight inflation, not to boost productivity, and not to run the country like a business. Instead it’s spending for votes, spending for optics, spending with zero long-term economic strategy. We are falling out of sync with the rest of the world and unless productivity becomes the national priority again, Australia’s standard of living will keep slipping while politicians keep pretending everything is fine.

AI may drive inflation down… but at what cost to jobs, outsourcing and global growth? A major economic shift is underway.

THE COMPLIANCE ECONOMY A principle-based system rewards judgment and long-term thinking. A rules-based system rewards box-ticking. History shows compliance-heavy economies deliver lower productivity, weaker innovation, and poorer outcomes for capital. The macro consequences matter.

Japan’s bond yields aren’t the story. Japan’s debt is. When government debt reaches 250% of GDP, even small interest rates become dangerous. Zero rates masked the problem for years — but once normalisation starts, the budget impact accelerates fast.

Trump's Dollar Devaluation Plan

The Global Money Machine: The global financial system is being driven less by real investment… and more by speculative capital chasing policy shifts, sentiment swings, and hedge-fund-driven trading cycles.

Australia is stuck in a system designed 125 years ago — imported from England, never built for us. Career politicians sit in Parliament for decades with no real accountability. Productivity? Efficiency? Forget it. Three days of “Productivity Talks” ended with one policy: taxing EVs. That’s their idea of progress. It’s time we stopped accepting this nonsense. Our nation deserves leadership with vision, not empty debates. Do you think Australia needs structural reform in politics? 👇

Western governments often overlook a key factor: declining birth rates and family challenges are not only about economics. They are also shaped by culture. Bringing different communities together without proper integration creates difficulties. Europe shows us why getting this balance right matters.

Migration is sold as the solution to Australia’s problems. But what happens if the tap is turned off? Aging population. Pension blowouts. Economic slowdown. Yet — at the same time — lower housing prices and a correction in living costs. This isn’t about left vs right. It’s about asking the question politicians won’t touch: 👉 Are we building a future that works… or just kicking the can down the road?

Politicians set the rules on housing while quietly benefiting from them. 30% of MPs own more than three properties. Some sit on 5 or 6. Negative gearing. Capital gains discounts. Tax breaks. They profit while young families struggle to buy their first home. If company directors must declare conflicts, why not politicians? Housing policy should serve Australians—not investors in Parliament. 👉Do you think MPs with multiple properties should be barred from voting on housing laws?

In this special Clime roundtable, Michael Baragwanath (Managing Director), John Abernethy (Founder & Chair), and Leo Economides (CIO) dive into the deep structural challenges holding back Australia’s productivity. From housing affordability and intergenerational wealth divides to immigration policy, infrastructure planning, superannuation, and government inefficiency, our panel unpacks why Australians feel like they’re going backwards despite headline GDP growth. WATCH FULL VIDEO: lnkd.in/gbuT8nUE

💰 Australia sits on $4 TRILLION in savings. 🚨 But instead of building homes, jobs, and industries—we park it in banks, miners, and overseas markets. That’s why wages are flat, housing’s unaffordable, and opportunity is disappearing. We don’t have an immigration problem. We don’t just have a government problem. 👉 The truth is: our financial system is failing us. Until we connect our own savings with real opportunities, we’ll stay a country that’s rich in capital but poor in prosperity.

Markets are always shifting—sometimes growth stocks lead, other times value plays catch attention. 📊 These rotations highlight how dynamic investing landscapes can be.

Australia doesn’t have a work ethic problem — we have a productivity crisis. The private sector isn’t investing, the economy is stalling, and yet the ACTU thinks cutting the working week will magically fix it.

America’s turning gas into gold — exporting LNG to Europe and cashing in big. Meanwhile, Australia ships it out… and makes next to nothing.

Tariff revenue in the U.S. has plummeted to 2-2.5% of government revenue, with imports barely covered. Will new tariffs balance the budget or just fuel inflation? American consumers may bear the $500B cost. #Tariffs #Economy #Inflation

📱 What happens if Apple leaves China? Trump once pushed Apple to “bring the iPhone home” — to manufacture in the U.S. But the economics don’t stack up. Apple’s manufacturing in China isn’t just about cheap labour — it’s about access to a world-class supply chain, precision capabilities, and scale that’s nearly impossible to replicate elsewhere. If Apple were to walk away from China, it wouldn’t just be a logistical challenge — it would create a vacuum China would waste no time filling.