Chris @ChrisORourke

consultant - horseplayer - sports prediction analytics New York Joined June 2019

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Watching everyone debate AI replacing jobs while I'm over here trying to get Excel to stop autocorrecting names to random words. Maybe we're not there yet.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

@KentuckyDerby I can watch this horse move, on loop, all day.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Another incredible effort. What a horse!

At The Races @AtTheRaces

a year ago

What a racehorse he is! Journalism motors late to win the Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell for @umbyrispoli and @mwmracing!

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Analyzed my BAQ bets from Sunday and found a pattern: Strong at identifying contenders, weak at betting them all. Had the top 3 in two races but only bet a 2-horse exacta each time. The gap between good handicapping and good betting strategy is expensive. #BelmontAtTheBigA

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Everyone focuses on xG models in football. But the most profitable insights come from def consistency. Goals allowed over last 5 venue-specific games tells you more about upcoming results than expected goals algorithms. Simple metrics > complex models when money's on the line.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

- Early career: Tried to be the smartest person in every room. - Mid career: Realized being the most systematic person was more valuable. - Now: Focus on being the most helpful person. Different game entirely.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

This looks absolutely spectacular! So excited for the New Belmont in 2026, and the Breeders' Cup in 2027. #BelmontPark

NYRA (🎪) @TheNYRA

a year ago

The New Belmont Park: Coming 2026 Learn more at newbelmont.com

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Rarest leadership trait I witnessed in 20+ years of consulting: Knowing what you need, recognizing the solution when presented, having the confidence to commit and execute. Most either avoided ownership or demanded unnecessary validation. Know. Recognize. Commit. Execute.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Updated my systematic decision-making framework post. The counterintuitive insight: more information often makes smart people less accurate. Framework for knowing when to stop analyzing and start deciding: open.substack.com/pub/pitchandga…

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Three principles from 20+ years in competitive environments: 1. Know when to stop analyzing 2. Framework quality > data quantity 3. Systematic approaches work across domains Most people collect data. Few make better decisions.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

The hardest part of model development isn't the math, it's deciding what not to measure. Every metric you track becomes something you optimize for. Choose poorly and you build something that tests beautifully and performs terribly.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Every failed model teaches you something. Every successful one teaches you more. The key is building systems that capture both lessons.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Had to tear apart months of model development yesterday. The complex framework failed, but the simple fundamentals underneath showed real edge. Hard lesson: overthinking kills execution.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Access to data doesn't guarantee good analysis. The skill is in knowing which questions your data can actually answer.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Learned the hard way that being right for the wrong reasons is worse than being wrong for the right reasons. Sustainable edge comes from process discipline, not outcome luck.

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Real Betis face Chelsea in their first European final. Historically, La Liga clubs have dominated major UEFA deciders. A Chelsea win makes them the first team to triumph in all five UEFA competitions. Added intrigue: Pellegrini faces former player/assistant Maresca. #UECLFinal

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Chris @ChrisORourke

a year ago

Systematic approaches work not because they eliminate uncertainty, but because they remain functional within it. Consistency beats perfection in high-variance environments.