Markus @BreakinDa_Rules
Cooking up bangers right here on the TL. Support my work via my betrecaps link below, there's auto generating play sheets including NCAAB, ATGS ping bot, etc. betrecaps.com/mark Joined September 2019-
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a question ill know i will get which is perfectly fair "but you combined chet and d'angelo, chet and white, but not deangelo and white?" I combine all combinations of all players just too much work to paste everything, in the beginning I'll try to, but we can collectively get…
5 more - notice the frequency that a same player is used because their base build combo is solid? This is why with the alt strat you'll want to size smaller across the board. If there's 7 eligible players, I want to do 7 choose 2, which is 21 combinations.
I have been extremely picky with homers and threshholds lately as the metrics have yielded fairly historic lows and poor results, here's two I like that meet my criteria on FD:
3 singles parlays for the KC game! All calcs pictured. (lineups not out yet) I played all at EK.
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EV: 11% QK: .98U FV: +242 Raised my threshhold for HRs recently and this one makes the cut at +280
Running these, two-way comps non-existant and some offline success for awhile. I might start these within SGPs just gotta crunch some correlation numbers. In for a total of 1U - straight 4+/RRx2/3, just sprinkle 2s for the 5+ TB variant.
Wyatt Langford single x Colt Keith Single +323 buff, both confirmed in lineups as of 10 sec ago EV: >12% QK: >.96U FV: +270 (visual glitch)
Played straight, RRx2 and sprinkled parlay (FD) all > 5% to MA Total exposure ~ 1.5U
Slim EV so no straights here, but good looks in RRx2/3. btw - when I talked about importance of having access to HR openers - Adolis opened at +350 and pinged with a DK comp.
if 👑 Boo got the short odds play covered... O'Connor (QK .75) and Nicholas (QK .25) straight, but all solid for 4 leg RR and parlay
if 👑 Boo got the short odds play covered... O'Connor (QK .75) and Nicholas (QK .25) straight, but all solid for 4 leg RR and parlay https://t.co/m9H9h4HW9I
The variety of popular approaches to a market nowadays is fascinating, like homers for example. Top down A - Pure EV calc same-day or openers, which breaks down into Synth/MA/single sharp approaches Hybrid B - EV calc with rare analytical omissions C - EV calcs enhanced by…
Longer lay as promised, only Weegar is good straight and Armia isn't a good leg from value POV but I'm running this for 1U across mostly RR and a sprinkle.
Here's a strong lay for tomorrow, good for straights and RR/sprinkle parlay. Building a longer odds variant to put out shortly... night before prices are 👑 Cashed RRx2 of one of the two hits lays, very close to more on both... just getting started there.
While we're waiting on the night games (Ohtani 1/2❌) and Chapman (2/2 ✅+280), I'm adding another 2+ hits lay into the que: 1U spread across RRx2 and parlay, no straights on these as below EV threshhold to MA at current odds 🤝
While we're waiting on the night games (Ohtani 1/2❌) and Chapman (2/2 ✅+280), I'm adding another 2+ hits lay into the que: 1U spread across RRx2 and parlay, no straights on these as below EV threshhold to MA at current odds 🤝 https://t.co/yzKEFyX61u
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@MSUKB_Bets @BreakinDa_Rules Yeah @MSUKyleBrown summed it up well but the “compounding” edge thing is a bit of a misnomer cause your edge itself is the same, you’re just putting more risk into it. Therefore stake needs to be lowered accordingly and with proper staking you make less money in the long run by…
@BreakinDa_Rules @EVBetsCanada Basically you're not increasing your edge but you are increasing your variance (and compounding your edge) Still edge from game A x edge from game B = compounded overall edge (with higher variance)
@SkylineBets @BreakinDa_Rules Yeah like Pairing the Paulo SGP with the Chet SGP
@BreakinDa_Rules I’ve also been experimenting with this. I agree with you that a big edge seems to be in the positive correlation of pts & 3’s rather than the SGP as they are extremely volatile. FD SGP odds can change without the individual odds changing. Their correlation seems wonky.
@BreakinDa_Rules I was at Nats Park last night. Got to explain to my wife how Joey Gallo does two things: Strikeout and homer.
The MLB killed the baseball. I'm not arguing with you guys anymore. Sub to the youtube youtube.com/@heavyhitterme…
STOP SCROLLIN STUPID This is the most useful thread you'll see this week 'Everything I've bookmarked for the past year from a bunch of different awesome accounts' MAKE SURE TO CLICK THE LINKS, MANY OF THESE ARE THREADS
Ryan Garcia Is On That Bugga Shuggga & I Don’t Know If It’s Gone Work vs. Devin Haney🕺🏾😂😂😂🥊🏆🔥 youtu.be/mzwVz4KZM0c?si…
Dustin Poirier’s live reaction to Max Holloway’s knockout over Justin Gaethje at #UFC300 😮
This throw by Mookie Betts is so satisfying to watch
@WhopIO @CappCollective No favorite baseball team but am I huge fan of Rachaad White and James Cook
Look what @125illust just did
Michael Porter Jr better do the right thing and have him on his podcast
NBA has leveled a lifetime ban on Jontay Porter for gambling.
@CappCollective @spartans0454 I thought we were keeping slips in pocket for the left one @BreakinDa_Rules (what a hit though)
why do i keep doing this to myself… prob a homer in most other parks
@BreakinDa_Rules Carter nerfed from earlier but similar line of thinking 🤝
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