Always bet the break @BreakAlways

Don't bet the break... (Cycling betting, Strategy, Game Theory) Joined September 2020

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 days ago

Now that the dust has settled, can we find a place to buy that Cari anthem from the @giroditalia ? Right now I have to cue up the end of @cycling_podcast episode (stage 17) every time I want to listen to it...

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

6 days ago

Giving combativity to crashers - even if deserved - isn’t exactly a blessing. Seixas will just want to finish the stage and get his wounds cleaned up and rest. Minor ceremonies not what’s needed.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

6 days ago

Wouldn’t Tullett be more helpful pacing Jorgensen than being an anchor on Ayuso?

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

7 days ago

“Even if it’s bad for me, as long as it’s worse for my perceived enemies, then I’m happy with it” is an unhealthy way to live your life, and also to race your cycling team.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

a week ago

@laflammerouge16 I’m mostly talking about Wiebes, I haven’t followed the other stuff as closely.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

a week ago

A lot of “We broke the rules and admit we broke the rules, and it’s unfair we face the consequences for breaking the rules” going on now. The more these teams talk, the weaker their arguments. They just think they can paint UCI as bad and everybody will nod along.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

a week ago

@laflammerouge16 Lorena Wiebes is a pretty big name to disqualify!

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

a week ago

“A message needs to be delivered to a town 28km away. Your team all knows the message. Deliver the message as fast as you can. Fastest wins.” I think the new TTT rules are very intuitive. And a great test of how to use your resources to the last drop.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

Lidl-Trek quickly moving from Gee acquisition to Gall acquisition:

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

@TheDailyPeloton The point of a minimum bike weight rule is for rider safety. It’s in everyone’s best interest to have it. Without it, teams and riders would be incentivized to strip even more away, trading safety and reliability for performance.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

The Wiebes bike weight case sounds like the Froome salbutamol case: “We weren’t trying to break the rules, we were just trying to push the envelope as far as possible. And this time it went over the line and broke the rules. But we weren’t trying to, so it shouldn’t count.”

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

Larry Warbasse, the day after his job was holding off Vingegaard on Piancavallo, learning his job is to chase down Ganna on the flat. If you can try to do both those things, and be a multilingual mentor to young cyclists, you too may be able to be a domestique at a high level.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

I don’t think SD Word deliberately used an underweight bike. I don’t think Sky deliberately pushed Froome over the limit. But I think both tried to get as close as possible, missed, and that’s a risk you run and you have to pay the price.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

Two of the most memorable teammate moments from Giro 21. Now, five years later, the two leaders have become the great gregarios.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

On TCP, @friebos mentioned having talked to Sepp Kuss, who said that he struggled to recover the following year(s) from doing 3 GTs in 2023, even though he performed well that year. Thomas De Gendt said the exact same for himself when he did that program in 2019.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

@chisportzguy @laflammerouge16 Exactly. Ciccone saying "We had an agreement!" Gee saying "There was no agreement!" If team's can't be trusted to share and honor promises, than I think it's hard to make agreements with them. The fault is with Ciccone/Gee not communicating, IMO.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

Even Trek are agreeing with what happened, and the message is clear: If you make an agreement with a Trek rider, you cannot have faith that their team will follow it. It's a bad choice to burn your reputation this way, because there are always little deals in the peloton.

Domestique @Domestique___

3 weeks ago

🇨🇦 Gee-West explains Red Bull KM incident with 🇨🇴 Rubio "I don't know if he [Rubio] had made an understanding with someone else or something, but I thought it was fair game" 📰 domestiquecycling.com/en/news/gee-we… 📸 Cor Vos

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

@EchelonsHub @laflammerouge16 Rubio wanting what for no apparent reason The Red Bull KM is a sizeable competition and prize, and is worth trying to get. And clearly Rubio told Ciccone he wanted it, and Ciccone didn’t tell Gee. Ciccone is making promises on behalf of his team, then not telling his team.

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

So Lidl-Trek wanted Rubio to accept the deal of: “Giulio gets all the KOMs, Derek gets the Red Bull KM, and you don’t get anything and don’t even try”? If Trek says “not a negotiation, we race for everything” then don’t be pissed when Rubio races for it!

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

@laflammerouge16 @EchelonsHub Fine! But then Ciccone can’t make the deal in the first place and also cannot get angry when Rubio sprints for a KoM after Lidl challenged him for RB KM

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Always bet the break @BreakAlways

3 weeks ago

@wielervrspllng He has been correct in all 3 major brouhahas he's been involved with. Why chase Ganna in the Giro and do De Gendt's work for him? Not his job to drag Pinot to a finishing climb Clearly Trek riders were making deals without being able to enforce them within their team.