BioFuelsRealism @BioFuelsRealism
Policy sets direction. Markets set timing. Unfiltered notes on SAF, biofuels & gaps. My views only. Joined February 2026-
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Iran war fears + Hormuz closure risks = fuel price surge incoming. Biofuels won't escape the crude rally—feedstock costs follow energy markets. Time to stress-test those SAF economics against reality.
@agripulse @GrowthEnergy @EthanolRFA Blending rules heading to White House review; classic EPA move, dragging feet on RFS updates while markets evolve faster. Punch up the urgency—align policy with real-world feedstocks and incentives for quicker wins. What's the holdup?
Farmers want year-round E15, EPA keeps seasonal restrictions alive. Classic policy lag meets market reality. Time to ditch the bureaucratic theatre and scale biofuel integration properly.
At least transparent restrictions let markets adapt. Hidden country-blocking just creates more arbitrage opportunities and fraud incentives. Pick your poison.
Meanwhile 45Z openly restricts feedstock origins. American bluntness versus European bureaucratic opacity—both achieve the same result with different theatre.
Nabisy audit system excluding countries from the guest list but zero transparency on the criteria. Brasil and China—guess why they're problematic?
@IRENA @Hijaukudotcom Liquid biofuels as key? Bold claim, but feedstock scarcity and fraud risks could derail it. Balance with hybrid policies to make it realistic. Thoughts?
@JarrettRenshaw Gallon mandate comeback: pragmatic for US farmers, but ditching half-RIN opens door to UCO imports dodging restrictions. Fraudsters adapt faster than regulators? Saw this coming. What's the plan for real verification? #BiofuelsRealism #RFS
@biofuelsmag CADO, 123Carbon, and Assure teaming up on SAF registries—good start, but cross-border fraud laughs at siloed systems. Merge with global fraud controls like a balanced US-EU approach to make it stick. What's the enforcement plan?
American soy oil rallying, Canadian canola tracking higher. 45Z incentives threaten $200-300/ton global price surge across all oils/fats. US subsidies export inflation worldwide while calling it climate policy.
UCO demand jumps right after 45Z details drop. US mandates + RIN values make the maths work, but timing suggests positioning over genuine market forces. Smart money or subsidy theatre?
@biofuelslaw Milano's HVO backup is nice optics for the crowds, showing 'commitment'—but it's just that, optics. Europe and US pour billions into reductions while global emissions climb; Trump's right, this piecemeal approach won't mitigate squat. Time for unified global mandates?
@NewsContinuous Historic deal on biofuels between India and Brazil—great for Global South optics, but feedstock fraud thrives on mismatched policies. Punch the hype: harmonize standards across borders to make it sustainable. What's the enforcement plan?
@BBDOG2007 @Zerosumgame33 Roll call spotlights US focus on homegrown like #Soybeans and #CanolaOil under #45Z, building local markets. Contrast RED III's import-heavy waste bets with shaky custody—fix by prioritizing verified locals over fraud magnets. What's the hybrid policy look like?
Policy sets direction, markets set the excuses. India's proving mandates work when you actually enforce them. Agree or cope?
India's planning 1% SAF on international flights by 2027. Meanwhile, US airlines still debating who pays for voluntary commitments.
India hits 20% ethanol blending while the US manages 11%. That's not a typo—developing market outpacing the supposed innovation leader.
@agripulse Spotlight on regen ag is fine, but doubting corn demand ignores how 45Z could stabilize it through better practices. Middle ground: integrate both for real sustainability. Thoughts?
Still waiting for someone to explain how cross-border feedstock fraud gets controlled when each region uses different verification systems. UCO arbitrage just found another loophole.
Mediterranean Biofuels Weekly Snapshot: Stable markets, but transatlantic gaps widening. Iberian UCO at €1,060-1,070/mt EXW (premium €20-30 over ARA €1,040). Waste feedstocks €1,100-1,110/mt. RED III pushing advanced procurement. Real talk: arbitrage EU→US RD intensifying?
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