BTCharged @BTCharged

After a predictable move to neutral on Ultimate Fear and Greed in the time frame we'd expect it, the next logical move is back to extreme fear. From this point, F&G usually does this 2 more times before the cycle bottom is in.

Gold looks right on track to start its 4 - 5 year bear market according to the 10/4 Cycles Theory. It had a perfect 10.5-year bull market with a parabolic top in January of this year. Gold and other precious metals are set up to start recovering just before the predicted recession period of the Quartcent Cycles Theory (2034 - 2041). For now, precious metals should take a back seat. But in 5 years from now... it could be a good pivot during the 10 year market pause.

Bitcoin's 2026 bear market performance is now closest to the first bear market in 2014. The unification zone (where all bear markets have lined up) starts in just 10 days, which means Bitcoin would need to be at least 50k by June 18th. Everything's right on track.

This is how I see $BTC over the next months June -> flat July -> mini alt rally during bear August -> dump to $50K September -> fake bounce October -> $40K bottom November -> real bounce December -> start of bull market Bookmark this and come back at the end of the year.

Kalshi @Kalshi

2 weeks ago

JUST IN: 90% chance Bitcoin falls below $60,000

281 285 3K 1.0M 64

No new lows yet, and already the bottom calls are starting to pop up. If you're wondering about cycle bottom data... no major updates to report. Like SOPR, which is still in bear market development mode. Waiting on a move to high loss. Even from people who are bearish, they appear to have a very optimistic perspective of how this will play out. A soft fall in the short term, followed by powerful new ATHs into next year. I think what might surprise a lot of people is how low price can get. Sub 30k is not off the table. For the cycle to stay on track (and of course I believe it will), a curveball is coming.

@CryptoCon_ By a failed cycle do you mean no new ATH? I’d love to see more details in future posts that state a failed cycle. Thank you!!

The cycle bottom target for the Golden Ratio Multiplier is dropping, currently at about 36k. We're watching Level 1, which has been very accurate for previous cycle bottoms. This is slightly below the Realized Market Cap bottom of 42.5k. I think the real answer is probably something in between.

I’m still waiting for the cycle bottom.

A simple observation for the cycle bottom using the TRIX indicator on the Monthly. Good accuracy, just waiting on a crossover.

Bitcoin transaction volume is plummeting, which is a good thing if you're looking for the cycle bottom. But, we're not quite to cycle bottom territory, and the difference does matter. 2014 spent 10 months at these same levels in the channel. Crosses into low transaction volume have been pretty accurate for pinning the cycle bottom, usually within one month. A lot of data is in a similar position. Close, but not quite there.

Long-term Bitcoin holders (people holding for 1 year or more) are moving in the direction we want. The metric is about 60% way to high long-term holder interest/maximum long-term holder stockpiling (blue). The more interested they get in buying, the more interested I get. There's still plenty of ground to cover!

It's just your average Bear Market May on Logarithmic MVRV.

@deedydas Let’s see the numbers behind that 50x

On this day in 1999, Marshall McDougall put together arguably the greatest individual game in baseball history 🤯 The Florida State slugger went 7-for-7 with: ⚾ 6 HR ⚾ 16 RBI ⚾ 25 total bases All NCAA single-game records. After singling in his first at-bat against Maryland, McDougall homered in his next SIX plate appearances, completing a “home run cycle” with a solo shot, 2-run HR, 3-run HR and grand slam in a 26-2 win.

@SidKhurana3607 @TicTocTick Nice, most of those degrees are worthless and create narcissists in the process.

THE WORST MONTH FOR $BTC JUST STARTED This pattern repeats in May EVERY 4 years: May 2014 - 61% wiped May 2018 - 65% wiped May 2022 - 63% wiped Today is May 1, 2026 - start of a new downward cycle And this time the setup is worse than ever Because this cycle comes with extra bearish pressure on top: 1. Fed Chair transition incoming 2. FOMC meeting was yesterday 3. UAE just exited OPEC Every single one of these is bearish for $BTC So what would I advise? Sell in May and go away - or find out the hard way FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!

bee🐝 @0xbeehive

2 months ago

FACT: New Fed Chair = MARKET DUMP Look at this closely: Every time a new chair came to the Fed, the market entered a downtrend Yellen - major drawdown Powell - same story, TWICE This isn't just a hypothesis - we've seen this happen THREE times in a row Now we’re approaching

206 534 3K 1.0M 2K

📈Bitcoin April close: $76,310 BTC will go up long term (debasement + scarcity) but mixed signals short term: 2 charts left show RSI and %_BTC_in_profit🔵already at bottom levels -> BTC up? 2 charts right show Realized Price and Drawdown🟢not yet at bottom levels -> BTC down?

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Bitcoin's at tough resistance here, just one example of many being the Simple Bands Midline at 78k. Common mid-bear market stuff, also seen in June 2014 and April 2018. 2022 stayed below without retesting. The cycle bottom band remains at 42k.

Think you're bad at timing the market? So are CEOs:

Introducing... my cycles theory for Gold, which I am calling the "10/4 Cycles Theory". It says that Gold operates around a 15 year cycle. The bull market takes 10 - 11 years, while the bear market takes 4 - 5 years. In February of this year, the bull market would have ended, which begins the 4 - year bearish phase of the cycle, set to last until 2030 or 2031. The cycles have incredible accuracy when viewed this way, with one interesting example of a failed bull market period between 1985 and 1996. You can see where the two cycle top events (red dots) landed and fell flat during that time in their appropriate places. The cycle begins with one bottom event and is followed by two top events, which are the major points. These come during precise 1.5-year windows in the peaks and troughs of the sine wave cycle. This is my latest major cycles theory to join the Halving Cycles Theory (Bitcoin) and the Quartercent Cycles Theory (S&P 500). All of which remain accurate to the current date. For the 10/4 Theory to be successful in the near term, the bull market must end by July 2027 at the latest, which is at the end of the 10 - 11 year window. It seems highly probable, though, that February 2026 fulfilled this.