Or Azarzar @AzarzarOr

@KampnerSam @oribech מעוניין!

Full post on substack; summary bullets below: ➡️Trump announced a “peace deal” on Truth Social Saturday afternoon. The post says an agreement is “largely negotiated,” invokes a “Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE,” and declares that the Strait of Hormuz “will be opened.” It reads like the war is ending. It is not. Not even close. ➡️Expect a gap-down in Brent and WTI at Sunday’s 6:00pm ET futures open — unless someone with a louder megaphone than mine debunks the “it’s over” narrative before then. I think that gap-down, if it happens, will be selling into a misunderstanding. ➡️This is April 7, Round 2. The substance — the part that would actually end the war — has again been deferred. What’s genuinely new here is a nuclear negotiation and-Strait reopening framework, not a nuclear deal. ➡️The reported MOU is one page, 14 points: declare the war over, gradually reopen Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, unfreeze some Iranian assets, and kick the hard nuclear questions neither side has been willing to budge on to a 30-to-60-day follow-on negotiation that has not yet started. ➡️The single issue that determines whether this war ends — possession of Iran’s ~440.9 kg of 60%-enriched uranium — was explicitly left out of the text. Iran’s Foreign Ministry wasted no time going on the record to emphasize this key omission the same day Trump announced the “Peace” deal. ➡️Trump insists Iran must surrender that material. Iran says it never will. Iran’s Supreme Leader reportedly issued a directive on May 21 that the stockpile “should not leave the country.” Secretary Rubio, the same weekend, repeated that any deal must include “turning over enriched uranium.” Neither side has moved a millimeter. Everything else is noise until that one core disagreement is resolved. ➡️The “is Iran weeks from a bomb, or has it had no weapons program for 20+ years?” contradiction is fake. Both statements are essentially true. Reconciling them requires understanding nuclear hedging — a concept the mainstream media has been derelict in failing to explain. This post explains it thoroughly. ➡️Enrichment is not a linear process. Getting from 60% to 90% weapons-grade enrichment requires roughly 1% of the effort it took to get to 60%. By stockpiling 60% material, Iran has already done about 99% of the separative work needed for a bomb’s worth of fuel. ➡️That stockpile is confirmed fact — not allegation, not propaganda, not suspicion. It was audited and verified by IAEA inspectors. Nobody on either side disputes it exists. ➡️Stories of a US or Israeli special-forces raid to “go in and grab the uranium” are not credible. Absent Iranian cooperation, every named expert who has spoken on the record calls such an operation somewhere between “unlike any mission the US military has tried before” and “rather fantastical.” That material leaves Iran only with Tehran’s consent — or behind a full ground occupation. ➡️For the crude market, the question that matters is not “is there a deal?” It’s “how much oil actually moves through the Strait of Hormuz?” Watch tanker traffic, not headlines. ➡️The durable takeaway: this can drag on for months. A global economic event tied to energy is, in my view, already a near-certainty at some severity. How much oil flows through Hormuz over the next several weeks will determine whether that event is merely painful or genuinely catastrophic. If the Strait remains substantially closed for just a few more weeks, a catastrophic outcome will become certain. We only have a few weeks left to sort this out, and if the strait remains substantially closed for the full 60 day negotiation period prescribed in today’s 14-point MOU, the global economic impact will be catastrophic and irreversible. If that summary is enough for you, you can stop here. If you want the full argument, read the post on substack.

The final point Rory cites from Iran in the below tweet is the most critical one. Iran has been crystal clear since the conflict began that they are unwilling to give up possession of their ~440kg of 60%-enriched HEU. That's the central "risk" that Trump and Netanyahu started this whole war over. When Trump said Iran was "just weeks away from a nuclear weapon", what he really meant is that it would only take a few weeks to enrich that 60% HEU to 90% (weapons grade). That's what the whole war was started over in the first place, and it will always be the central issue that has to be resolved before the conflict can end. It's plausible that Trump is giving up to save face, declare victory, and move on. In that case this whole conflict will have been for nothing. Far more likely, Trump is buying more "negotiations occurring under ceasefire" time to avoid congressional approval requirements. It's also plausible that Trump incorrectly believes that Iran will allow its 60%-enriched HEU to leave Iran, and when he finds out they refused (consistent with exactly what they've repeatedly said they would do), he may accuse them of breaking the agreement. It's crystal clear that Iran sees that outcome coming, and is "in damage control mode" now, making it publicly clear that they have not agreed to hand over their HEU. They don't expressly say here that they will never turn it over, but they've made clear in other statements in the last few days that this exact order was given by the Supreme Leader this past week. I therefore conclude 1 of 2 things has to be true: 1) This is another "fake news" peace deal that's intended to buy more time before facing congressional approval challenges, but will ultimately prove just as meaningless as the last several similar "peace deals" that never panned out, OR 2) Trump is giving up and will try and save face by declaring victory, taking credit for reopening the strait, and might then pivot to Epstein-files tactics to brush minor details like Iran still has the nuclear material that could be enriched to weapons-grade in just a few weeks and Iran will begin charging massive tolls for traffic transiting the Strait under the proverbial rug. But #2 is very unlikely, because Rubio has already made public statements (Saturday, from India) reiterating the nuclear materials hand-over red line. He wouldn't be pushing that message if Trump was giving up and looking to save face. I lean toward #1 above, considering that Iran has already emphasized that Trump's formative MOU "does not in any way mean free passage thru the Strait". Remember, Trump needs to avoid any "resumption of the war" because he's already well beyond the 60-day deadline for congressional approval to continue the war. So this whole thing looks to me like a tactic to defer the nuclear materials negotiation (i.e. the real "red line" substantive matters that were the main reason the war started) into a 30-day drag-this-out phase, where we get at least some traffic through the strait and stay immune from congressional approval demands. If that's right, it will prolong this until both sides eventually reach the obvious conclusion that neither is willing to bend on its red-line demands, which all center on the nuclear material hand-over that hasn't even been discussed in the negotiations that precipitated this weekend's "peace deal" announcement from @POTUS. If you're tempted to say "But...They are talking about opening the Strait NOW, and that will solve the global energy supply problem, so this is still massively bearish oil prices", think again. Better yet, follow @CommodMkt. Even if the Strait were fully re-opened to pre-war traffic levels (very unlikely), it would take 6-8 weeks for the tankers to reach their destinations before energy supply could begin to recover. By then we'll have reached the next red-line challenge in this negotiation. Bottom line, this ain't over till it's over. And it's not over nor can it or will it end this weekend. I'm working on a Substack post going into more detail on all this now. It will explain what the MSM have consistently failed to explain: Why the 440kg of 60% HEU is so important, and why there seems to be such a disconnect between Trump, Lindsay Graham and others insisting "Iran was only a few weeks away from a nuclear weapon" vs. Tulsi Gabbard insisting "Iran doesn't have and hasn't had a nuclear weapons program for over 20 years". Believe it or not, they're both right, and the explanation is nuanced. Follow my substack now if you want to be notified. Should be posted by early Sunday morning.

Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston

4 months ago

Pro world: mention of *pre-war* Hormuz transit levels Pro Iran: Hormuz transits “exclusively under the authority” of Iran, nuclear file has not been discussed

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@KampnerSam @VladiSandler נראה לי סופר רלוונטי

תעזרו לי לעבור את ה-2,000 🤠 מה שקורה היום בעולמות החלל זו מהפכה היסטורית ומרגשת שרוב האנשים פשוט מפספסים. אני כאן כדי להנגיש את הטכנולוגיה והשינוים הכלכליים שקורים בכל יום (ולתבל מדי פעם עם קצת אסטרונומיה ואסטרופיזיקה לפתיחת הראש 🤯). אם אתם נהנים מהתוכן - אשמח שתשתפו 🙏

@Tamishsh ענק! מקווה שיצא סרטון המשך, זה אירוע חריג כל כך

@Tamishsh כן ש7 משם ההתפעלות מהוידאו המטורף הזה

@Tamishsh כן, האפקט הרבה יותר גדול. לפחות במודרניים שאני מכיר. התת לחץ מבקע בדרך כלל את הגוף. וחדרי מכונות לרוב בירכתיים בכלים כאלה, יכול להיות שהוא היה עם סיב אופטי וממש כיוונו אותו לאיזור ספיציפי. מה שכן שאפו למפקד הצוללת, לירות טורפדו מעומק פריסקופי ולצלם, איזה ביצים

@KampnerSam כן לגמרי זה מודל שעובד אצלנו יפה, 3 ג׳וניורים עם 2 סניורים ומנהל פיתוח מה שכן, רף הסינון בגיוס עלה משמעותית אתה רוצה מקסום של הפוטנציאל

@AsherAharonov @ZuckermanRoy אם ככה אין התכנות במודל עסקי ל LLM סגור אני חושב שיש ערך גדול מאוד במעבדת AI שהיא in house הוא לא תלוי בביצועים של מודלים open source הוא יכול להתאים אותו לחומרה וליוז קייסים של המוצרים שלו יכול לאמן אותו על מידע שמתאים לו והכי חשוב מחזיק בנכס קריטי בעולם שבו מנסים לפרוץ ל agi

@ZuckermanRoy @AsherAharonov גם לשלם ל Anthropic ו OpenAI

@AsherAharonov @ZuckermanRoy למה להיות תלוי ב Anthropic או OpenAI אם אתה רוצה לשלב LLM בשאר השירותים שלך? בטסלה, בהמשך באופטימוס ואולי עוד מעבר לזה שSpace X פותח לו אפיק לאנרגיה זולה, כרגע לא קיים אצל המתחרות והן שורפות המון מזומן על ה DCs נכון שהכל על הנייר אבל יש היגיון

$LUNR at $18 at a $3B market cap puts them about a forward 3.5 P/S. Pretty attractive...

@madar_noam זה יוביל כנראה לעליה בתוחלת החיים אבל ישנה לגמרי את תחום הפארמה וביו רפואה וההוצאות הרפואיות, גם של ממשלות אבל גם של הפרט.

@madar_noam לא יודע אם זה נופל בדיוק בהגדרה של ההצלחה אליה אתה מכוון אבל כנראה שפתרון למצבים קיימים או בעיות שלא נפתרו עד כה. במצב שבו חברות הAI פורצות לשלב הבא של AGI - יכול להיות שנוכל במהירות לייצר תרופה לסרטן או מחלות אחרות שהיום מושקעים מיליונים במחקרים שלהם ועדיין לא מגיעים לפתרון.

בלוג נהדר של @balerionspace על המיזוג המתבקש של @SpaceX עם @Tesla או @xAI: open.substack.com/pub/balerionsp… מציין את אפשרויות הסינרגיה ואת הפוטנציאל הגדול שבמיזוג כזה. כמובן שכקרן הון סיכון שחשופה ב-100% לתחום יש לה הטיה ברורה לטובת המיזוג, שכן ה-upside לפורטפוליו גבוה מאוד.

@Tamishsh @SpaceX @blueorigin נשמע כמו הכנת שווי להנפקה, כמה זמן לוקח לייצר ולשגר מיליון לווינים? אם יצא לפועל מעניין מי יהיו המרוויחות העיקריות

@ZuckermanRoy כרגע, בפוטנציאל יוכל להטיס רובוטים שמריצים גרוק לחלל להתקין dc לטובת xai עם קישוריות סטארלינק דמיוני? כן, אבל על זה אפשר לגייס הרבה כסף, גם בציבורי וגם בפרטי