Frankie Aviles @AvilesAnalysis

@sizzle_sarah If you wanna kick anyone you need to face the consequences of your actions!

@DrClownPhD Hahahahaha!

Your adversaries don't need to beat you if you're already fighting yourself. Russia, China, and Iran all run the same play: widen the divide that already exists. That's not politics. That's a structural vulnerability. New Short breaks down the intelligence read.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

@DrClownPhD Morning!!

@DrClownPhD I hate this post! So freaking accurate!!! Hahahaha

@DrClownPhD You are not. There seems to be something pretty screwed up with the algo.

One thing I want to expand on here. Hemmati’s NDB play only works if the bank itself is willing to absorb the political risk of admitting Iran. The NDB was designed to avoid exactly this kind of entanglement. Its founding charter emphasizes creditworthiness and development impact, not geopolitical solidarity. Brazil, India, and South Africa all maintain complex economic relationships with the United States, and admitting Iran would expose the bank to secondary sanctions risk that could compromise its ability to raise capital on international bond markets. Hemmati has announced accession as though it is imminent, but the NDB has not confirmed that timeline, and every previous expansion (Egypt, UAE, Bangladesh, Uruguay) involved countries with significantly less sanctions exposure. That gap between Hemmati’s public framing and the NDB’s institutional incentives is the variable to watch. If the bank delays or conditions Iran’s entry, Hemmati loses the political shield he is trying to build at the exact moment his domestic opponents are escalating. His survival strategy depends on an institution whose own survival logic may not align with his.

Iran says it’s joining the BRICS bank. But the real move isn’t economic. It’s one official betting his political survival on a single institution he can attach his name to, while hardliners close in around him. The NDB bid is a power play dressed as diplomacy. Everyone’s covering Iran’s BRICS bank bid as an economics story. It’s not. It’s about who controls Iran’s post-Khamenei order. Analysis. Not Opinion. Source: @GPMonitor

@DrClownPhD 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

🚨First kinetic action in a month. That's not a lull breaking by accident. US forces hit two IRGC rocket launchers on Larak Island after they were observed preparing to fire rockets loaded with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM had just finished clearing the international shipping lanes days earlier. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims it retaliated with missiles at US bases in Jordan, that claim hasn't been independently confirmed yet. Here's the pattern. Iran doesn't need to sink the tanker fleet. It only needs to keep the risk premium high enough that traffic stays a fraction of pre-war levels. Cheap rockets, mines, and a contested casualty count on one island is enough to keep pressure on a chokepoint carrying roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade. Watch three things: • Whether this stays a one-for-one exchange, or the IRGC starts seeding mines again at scale • How many hulls actually transit this week • Whether Gulf partners treat the Jordan claim as a new red line, or just another night of sirens The strait isn't open until insurance rates and routing behavior say it is. Right now, they're still saying otherwise. Analysis. Not opinion. Source: CNN.

@DrClownPhD That does it!!

Switzerland. A 22-year-old woman is dead. Five others wounded — some seriously — after multiple shots were fired into a crowd at the Aarauer Rave shortly after 02:30. ~3,500 people at the Schachen racecourse in Aarau (Aargau), west of Zurich. Witnesses first thought it was fireworks. Shooter(s) still at large. Full manhunt. German police assisting. Motive and circumstances unknown. Switzerland has high civilian gun ownership and very few mass shootings. That is not a guarantee. Soft targets stay soft until someone proves otherwise. Facts only. No motive assigned until police do. Analysis. Not Opinion. Source: CNN.

@RigoIrizarry Felicidades!!

@DrClownPhD British narrator voice: NatGeo style! “With the change to the Lake of America we are now seeing for the first time…. The Trumpus Duck” “They resemble the only President in American history with impecable hair” 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Israel just appointed its first ambassador to a country most of the world doesn't recognize. That country is Somaliland. It sits beside Bab al-Mandab, one of the most fought-over shipping corridors on Earth. This is Stage 1: overextension. And it's rarely visible this early. Analysis. Not opinion.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

@ronsterd89 The way the lord made it!

@xRedPillNPCx @WallStreetApes I gotcha! completely in agreement there. That is part of what I talk about in my book. The reset certainly needs to happen. Are we talking economic reset within the confines of the current system? Or within our educational system?