Alpine Value HQ @AlpineValue

Valuation Summary: • Fair Intrinsic Value: £7.39 • Current Share Price: £4.98 • Margin of Safety: 32.6% Full 10-year DCF projection and balance sheet audit: alpinevaluehq.substack.com/p/foresight-gr… (Long $FSG. Not financial advice.)

Key FY26 audit highlights: • 82.1% recurring revenue (£135.3M base) • £39.1M Owner Earnings (net of CapEx & SBC) • 5.4% dividend yield (strict 60% payout policy) • £40.4M remaining on £50M buyback runway • Zero net debt after office leases

Deep Dive #2 is live on Alpine Value HQ: Foresight Group Holdings ($FSG). An asset-light infrastructure & regional PE manager trading at an audited 33% Margin of Safety with a 5.4% dividend floor. Full DCF model & teardown below 🧵👇

Tomorrow morning full deep dive on Foresight Group($FSG.L). A clean balance sheet and recurring revenue, that's their game.

@comic And diluted their shareholders like crazy on top of it😂

@BetterIRR That 82% recurring revenue on long-duration AUM is solid, but management actually buying back stock and canceling SBC to stop dilution is what stands out.

1/3 Deep dive on Moury Construct ($MOUR)—a century-old Belgian general contractor trading at a massive disconnect from fundamental value: • Market Cap: ~€291.5M (€736/sh) • Liquid Net Cash: €152.5M (€380.73/sh) • 51.6% of share price in cash• Class 8D public tender moat

@QC_Capitals $ADBE. Trading at a clear discount to intrinsic value right now—nearly $8B in true owner earnings even after deducting stock comp. Hard to beat those economics.

@ChloInvests It is essentially a leveraged holding company with a tiny legacy software business attached, where people happily pay a premium over NAV for Bitcoin they could just buy at spot. Peak financial alchemy.

Our 10-year DCF (10.5% WACC, 2.0% terminal growth, €150.85M net cash) yields a fair intrinsic value of €1,559.72/sh (52.7% margin of safety). Full memo, subsidiary teardown & sensitivity grid on Alpine Value HQ: substack.com/@alpinevaluehq… #ValueInvesting #MicroCaps #FinTwit

2/3 Contracting cash flows are lumpy, so we audited 3 years of primary filings (Geschäftsberichte): • 3-Yr Avg CFO: €34.33M • Maintenance CapEx: €1.97M (5.7% of CFO) • Zero stock dilution (0 SBC) • Normalized Owner Earnings: €32.36M• Implied operating P/E: ~4.1x