AfterHoursWire @AfterHoursWire

Supply Chain mess is here again.

Unicus @UnicusResearch

3 months ago

🚨 We flagged this supply-chain inflation thesis in September 2025 (remember the de minimis repeal?) when most people were not paying attention. The Hormuz shock has now made it impossible to ignore. The consumer was always going to feel it. Now they will feel it twice.🧵

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@ChrisManc9 U6 is 8%. Unbelievable.

BREAKING: US Bonds Fall as Strong Jobs Data Undermines Fed Cut Outlook. Treasuries fell as a solid reading of the US labor market prompted traders to reduce bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year. The latest employment report offered a positive picture of the US employment market in March, showing an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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BREAKING: Japan’s government bonds fell on Monday morning, pushing yields back toward multi-decade highs, as concerns mount that the widening conflict in the Middle East will stoke inflation.

🚨Last week was NOT a slow news week. Before we kick off week 13 of 2026, let us recap what happened last week. All macro analysis, FOMC section, including the hike discussion, and higher-for-longer private credit implications. Full private credit stress narrative: Pimco, Goldman/JPM/BofA short products, S&P/Cliffwater, Stone Ridge LENDX, including SEC filing analysis, Blue Owl/Century. See below.

🚨 An AI software company just opened applications for someone's dream job: Professional AI Bully- is the title. @thejobchick "You'll spend a full 8-hour day interacting with leading AI chatbots and your only job is to be brutally honest about how frustrating they are," the listing says. Who is going to buy this crap OpenAI or Anthropic? The role pays $100 per hour for an eight-hour shift. The day will involve testing and critiquing the memory of popular AI chatbots. The candidate will be expected to ask chatbots to remember information, see what they forget, and query them again, all while documenting their interactions. businessinsider.com/startup-is-off…

Weekly wrap up.

Unicus @UnicusResearch

4 months ago

🚨 The Fed held rates and discussed hiking. A $32B fund got a negative outlook, a $2.4B fund honored 11 cents on the dollar, and JPM/Goldman started selling shorts against the PC industry. This week is a wrap...breakdown here for the subs. (S&P ratings below)

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🚨 Banks in trouble. Private credit in trouble. All at the same time, is not a coincidence.🧵 Early this month, the FDIC released data that shows that as of end of 2025, banks in the U.S. lent approximately over $1.4 trillion to NDFIs. In just 15 years, bank lending to NDFIs has grown 2,320%. The private credit is a major subset of the NDFIs.

BREAKING: Vietnam moved to cushion consumers from a sharp jump in fuel costs as the Middle East conflict stoked growing concerns over global energy supplies. The government began disbursing money from its fuel price stabilization fund from midnight Tuesday, using as much as 5,000 dong ($0.20) per liter to soften retail price increases, according to a statement on its website. As a result, the price of RON-95 gasoline rose 7.66%, while diesel increased 1.58% and kerosene fell 7.71%, respectively.

After Close Chaos: Cliffwater LLC is facing redemption requests in excess of 7% from its flagship private credit fund, according to people with knowledge of the matter. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

ICYMI

Unicus @UnicusResearch

4 months ago

🚨 $OWL has a £36 million ($48 million) exposure to Century Capital Partners Ltd., a London-based property lender that filed for administration last month. Watch $OWL implode in slow motion: methodical, inevitable, and dragging everything it touches down with it. Both Century

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Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei is making a last-ditch attempt to strike a deal with the US defence department after the breakdown of negotiations last week left his company at risk of being frozen out of the military’s supply chain.

$HOOD has opened its platform for retail to short. And now, this? Robinhood Markets Inc. is seeking to challenge American Express Co. with a credit card it’s calling the “actual” Platinum card as the company pushes beyond the retail-trading platform. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Troubled Brazilian sugar and ethanol producer Raízen SA said it could go into an out-of-court restructuring process as it looks for a solution for its debt woes. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Our thoughts on: Why Blue Owl’s private-credit shocker has investors seeing shadows of Bear Stearns is published in @MarketWatch . bit.ly/4b0HiSh

BREAKING before the open: BYD’s February sales fall by most since pandemic. BYD's February sales dropped 41% on year to 190,190. The decline was driven by a 65% drop in domestic sales and came despite export sales surging 50%. ft.com/content/e4cd4b…

“What really matters about this disconnect, is that it means the U.S. economy won’t experience a “clean, single-event collapse.” Millions of Americans, in other words, could find themselves in a continuous tumble off a cliff, without the flashlight.” aol.com/finance/week-a…

ICYMI: BofA sharpens focus on private credit, despite rising fears. Key insight: Bank of America is putting more focus on private-credit lending as the sector's needs continue to grow. What's at stake: Banks are getting more entangled with asset managers in the $1.8 trillion private credit market at a time when the tide may be shifting for the business. Supporting data: As of the third quarter 2025, banks with more than $100 billion of assets held about 86% of the industry's loans to nonbank financial institutions, according to a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. analysis. americanbanker.com/news/bofa-shar…

This is bad.

Unicus @UnicusResearch

5 months ago

🚩 $OWL 's decision underlines the risks facing retail investors, who have ploughed hundreds of billions of dollars into funds with limited liquidity rights. The $1.4bn portfolio includes loans to 128 companies across 27 industries, with 13 per cent of the loans made to internet

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