ALWX @ALWXorg

ALWX Today: Lots of sunshine with a chilly north wind, highs in the lower 50s. Tonight: Clear and cold, lows in the upper 20s. Tomorrow: Sunny and warmer, highs in the upper 50s. #ALWX alwx.org

ALWX Today: Sunny and seasonably cool, highs around 62°F. Tonight: Partly cloudy, lows around 33°F. Tomorrow: Sunny and cooler, highs near 49°F. #ALWX alwx.org

ALWX Today: Foggy and damp early, then mostly cloudy and mild with highs mid‑40s to low‑50s. Tonight: Areas of fog, lows low‑40s to upper‑40s. Tomorrow: Warmer and dry, highs lower‑60s. #ALWX alwx.org

Birmingham, AL (5 AM): Cloudy start, breezy winds near 20 mph. Overnight low around 36°F. More Alabama weather: alwx.org

ALWX Today: Cool and dry for much of the state, with highs in the 50s. Tonight: partly cloudy and chilly, lows upper 20s to mid-30s. Tomorrow: milder with increasing clouds and a late-day rain chance, highs upper 50s to low-60s. #ALWX alwx.org

Forecast Update: Isolated showers and storms far southeast this afternoon, otherwise partly cloudy with highs from the low 80s far southeast to near 90 west. Mostly clear tonight with lows in the 60s. Partly cloudy Sunday with highs from the low 80s southeast to near 90 west.

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5:42pm A few storms have popped up and quickly become strong in Jackson County producing winds up to 50 mph and heavy rainfall this afternoon. Another storm or two is possible in Jackson or Marshall Co with the lingering boundaries in place. #HUNwx

NEXT WEEK: Seeing consistent signals from global models that a “cooler” and drier continental airmass will drop into Alabama by the middle of next week (in 8-9 days). Highs in the 80s, lows in the low to mid 60s. Cooler spots could dip into the 50s for a preview of fall.

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A Heat Advisory is in effect for Fayette, Greene, Lamar, Pickens, Sumter, Tuscaloosa, and Walker Counties until 8PM Tuesday. #ALWX

#HurricaneErin

TROPICS: Recent satellite wind data indicate that the disturbance located over the western Gulf (Invest 98L) continues to lack a closed low-level circulation. However, shower activity has increased some over the past few hours and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas this afternoon or evening. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the Gulf for at least the next seven days.

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Hot and humid conditions continue over the next couple of days with temps in the low to mid 90s and heat indices around 105°. Overnight lows look to drop into the 70s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely each afternoon.

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TROPICS: Tropical Storm Erin, with winds of 45 mph, is in the eastern Atlantic moving to the west at 20 mph. No change in the forecast thinking; Erin becomes a hurricane later this week; it will pass north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, and then turn north into the open Atlantic most likely before reaching the Bahamas. We note NHC brings Erin up to major hurricane intensity by the weekend with winds of 115 mph. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet, and no tropical storms or hurricanes are expected near the Gulf for at least the next seven days.

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Numerous showers and a few storms have developed across the area. This activity is slowly drifting to the north. You may run into a passing shower if you’re out and about this afternoon. #alwx

A trough remains in the north central Gulf. There are disorganized showers and thunderstorms and pressures are high. Hence the, "oh we will watch it, but it likely won't develop" outlook by NHC.

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TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORMS: The fifth tropical storm of the season has formed in the eastern Atlantic. Sustained winds are 45 mph; Erin is moving to the west at 20 mph. Here is the NHC discussion... Erin is moving quickly off to the west, with the motion estimated at 275/17 kt. Over the next few days, this motion should continue with possibly some slight south-of-due-west motion. Erin's motion is primarily influenced by an east-to-west oriented mid-level ridge draped across the subtropical Atlantic basin. By the end of the forecast period, this ridge may start to become more oriented to the northeast of Erin, inducing a more poleward (northward) motion by 120 h. The initial NHC track forecast elects to stick fairly close to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA), which is a touch on the south side of the overall track guidance envelope. It should be noted that spread in the track guidance, especially the ensembles, begins to increase markedly at the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast in the short-term is a little tricky. The earlier scatterometer data indicate the system has a small circulation which could be prone to rapid intensity changes, either up or down. While vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to be low, between 5-10 kt over the next 72 hours, sea-surface temperatures are more marginal, around 26-27C, with a decent amount of dry mid-level air along the path of the tropical storm. The first NHC intensity forecast will thus only forecast slow intensification in the short-term, assuming the marginal SSTs and lack of mid-level moisture will keep the small vortex in check. After 48 h, however, the SSTs start to gradually increase and should allow the local environment of Erin to moisten up. Thus, the rate of intensification will likely increase in the second half of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is a little on the high side of the guidance in the short-term, partially due to the initial intensity, but is in line with the HCCA intensity aid. By 120 h, the hurricane-regional models (e.g., HWRF/HAFS), and statistical-dynamical aids (EC-SHIPS/LGEM) show Erin becoming a major hurricane, and that will be explicitly forecast at the end of the period. BOTTOM LINE: Erin is forecast to be a major hurricane Saturday passing north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Global models continue to show a well defined weakness in the ridge north of the system, which will likely allow a turn to the north over the open Atlantic before reaching the U.S. East Coast. No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the Gulf for at least the next seven days.

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TROPICS: A well organized tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic (Invest 97L) will likely become a tropical depression today. There is a good chance it becomes a hurricane later this week, the first of the season (the name will be Erin). A weakness in the upper ridge north of the system should allow for a turn northward into the open Atlantic well before reaching the U.S. East Coast. No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the Gulf for at least the next seven days.

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With increased activity each day this coming week, and outdoor events approaching, this is a great time to remember lightning safety tips. Take 30 seconds to read this, and know what to do if thunderstorms develop/move near you.

08/10/25 5 AM update: Good morning Central Alabama! Isolated to scattered afternoon storms are expected across portions of Central Alabama today. Chances increase further for Monday. #alwx

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08/09/25 515 AM update: Good morning Central Alabama! Isolated to scattered afternoon storms are expected across generally the SE 1/2 of Central AL today. Chances increase further for Sunday. #alwx

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