a prediction - Base is making a ton of money from their L2 (2M compared to 1k to Ethereum — and this is only on 15 TPS!) - companies will use these figures to justify launching their own L2s (this is already happening) - however, they will forget that they are not, indeed, Coinbase — the most powerful crypto company on Earth lmao - you now couple this with the new Rollup-as-a-Service wave and VC markets losing their minds — tada, you have many rollups - but, these rollups will launch faster than the UX can be abstracted - there will be security incidents, fragmentation, and poor UX - the worst part? these companies aren't actually launching the rollups to solve any problems — they are doing it to make money, because they saw Base make money (and I'm told many VCs are telling portcos to do it as well) - in other words, people will keep launching these things to make money instead of actually solving any problems - but since 90% of the industry now relies on selling things to these rollups (DA Layers, restaking, interoperability, for example) — they will keep getting encouraged to do this - meanwhile, still, no problems being solved - for ETH the asset to keep increasing in value, it needs to be used as money by all these rollups however these rollups were built with the wrong incentives in mind as I mentioned above so now you have to rely on a few rollups that do all the transactions because incentives can't last forever — at some point, you need to gather real demand from solving a real pain - those rollups that do this will have to necessarily be the large general-purpose ones (because if they aren't, they can just pull a dydx and do their own thing) - but large general-purpose platforms already exist in the form of integrated L1s! - as a result, integrated L1s grow much larger in comparison + 1-2 large general purpose L2s since the existing asset network from ETH is quite large + a bunch of sovereign chains that do not need ETH (but might use Celestia for example) anyway I just made all this up remilio
put differently: there is no way you can attempt to be the best money, store of value, smart-contract platform, modular layer, and general purpose layer at once you are basically saying "Everyone else is incompetent" that is not how markets work people falsely say things like "well the entire world runs on TCP/IP so everything can also run on Ethereum — it will be the worlds computer" ok, no those are not capitalistic endeavours networking protocols do not have a billion VC funded entities coming after them at all times competing in free markets it is pure hubris to claim the entire world must fall within "eth as the inescapable center of gravity" or "the world's defacto programmable settlement layer"
@0xMert_ That Base is being used suggests it does solve problems. If you launch an L2 that solves no problems, nobody will use it and it will earn nothing. No incentive issues.
@0xMert_ And what happens when the UX does get abstracted and interop tech matures
@0xMert_ bros out here shadowboxing blockchain demons
@0xMert_ Followed this until the part where Solana grows much larger came out of nowhere