Rubicon Satoshi @crypticjeeper

Bitcoin is now hovering at the exact level where EVERY bull trap ends. Next week, another bearish rejection will send $BTC back to ~$53,000. $60K → $53K → $47K → $87K → $151K Next stops: → $53K next week → $47K by July → $151K by January I called the recent Bitcoin dump publicly, $126k top in October 2025, and even $15k bottom in November 2022. If you missed those calls, don't worry. I'll call the next one too. Follow now. I'll call every major move.

Kabuki🔴 @kabukistory

a week ago

The final Bitcoin Bull Trap is almost over. We’re perfectly following the bear cycle right now, and $BTC will dump to $47,000 in 12 days. $77K→ $61K → $47K → $55K → $151K Next stops: → $47K by July → $151K by January I called the recent Bitcoin dump publicly, $126k top

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@PeterSchiff If you think that’s cult-like behavior, would you agree that being bearish from $0 to $126,000 over more than 10 years and saying you were right every 4 years would also be cult-like behavior?

Saylor won't go bankrupt. The dividend will continue to be paid. If he has to raise the coupon to 15% to get to par, he will raise to 15%. And in the unlikely scenario he can't, he will either sell BTC or more shares of MSTR. And in the even more unlikely scenario that fails, he will just suspend the dividend and wait. There is no liquidition scenario.

The AI buildout is absorbing capital at historic scale, creating temporary pressure across global markets. That does not weaken Bitcoin. It strengthens the case for scarce, liquid, digital capital. Bitcoin remains the premier asset for the long term. $BTC

@PeterSchiff I am just waiting for your "Don't make the mistake" tweet. Then we will know the low is in.

JUST IN: Bitcoin falls below the 200-Week Moving Average for the first time since June, 2022 –– exactly 4 years later.

@jimcramer It’s just a flesh wound, Jim.

x.com/i/article/2062…

More than half of all $BTC in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss. 10.5M BTC are underwater. Only 9.8M are in profit. This crossover has coincided with every major bear market bottom in history. BTC also just touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300, a level reached in every previous bear market cycle, though it broke below it for 9 months in 2022. If $60k breaks, the next support is $54,000, the average cost basis of every coin in circulation. History says we're near a bottom. History also says "near" can take a while.

So basically Bitcoin does this thing every 4 years where the entire market thinks bitcoin is dead because the price gets shitted on over and over and over and then it goes back up and everybody forgets about it and gets mad they didn’t buy when it was getting shitted on.

ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd youtu.be/ctJSV8aTDSk?si… If you've enjoyed this Bitcoin Journey over the past 8 years, appreciate a Retweet and sharing on other forums. Thanks,.

Capital markets are funding the AI buildout at historic scale: ~$400B over 6 months. Bitcoin ETFs have seen ~$4B of outflows since May 14, pressuring $BTC. This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment. Volatility creates opportunity.

"Bitcoin isn't backed by anything." Let me stop you right there. Bitcoin is backed by energy. Real energy. Kilowatts. Heat. Physics. The kind of backing you can't print, fake, or vote into existence at an emergency Fed meeting. Every block mined is a thermodynamic proof of work. Not a promise. Not a policy. Proof. The issuance schedule has never been amended by a committee. Not once. Not ever. Because there is no committee. There's just math. Cold, indifferent, and immune to political theater. The network is secured by more raw computing power than anything humanity has ever built. Hundreds of exahashes per second standing guard. Every single day. Now let's talk about what is backed by nothing. The dollar. It's is backed by confidence. Specifically, confidence in the institution that printed $6 trillion in two years while telling you 3% inflation was healthy and you should be grateful for the soft landing. In the same people who can't pass an audit. Who fund wars with a credit card. Who promise solvency while sitting on $39 trillion in debt and accelerating. "Backed by nothing" isn't an attack on Bitcoin. It's a confession about the dollar. Follow if you're serious about building wealth they can't print away.

In a few months profits will temporarily flow out of TradFi (cool off phase after IPOs). People will want to know where to put their money because everything already went up so much. And there Bitcoin will be, ready to begin the next four year cycle.

I have been in Bitcoin for 10 years. I have NEVER seen sentiment this bad, on all fronts. Not 2015, not 2018, not the 2022 collapse. Something is broken this time, and I think I found out why through 9 charts... 📉

My own theory, which yesterday confimed - at least in my mind - is that this is all about Iran IMO any coins that could be linked to Iran/IRGC have been dumped to avoid possible sanctions (i.e. tainted coins), buy weapons, resources, etc.. OFC not only Iran was selling, but it explains the feeling of constant sell pressure even at obvious support levels and it being quite BTC specific

History of the “Greed vs Fear” Index with Bitcoin Price

This work is just an extension of the power law work by @Giovann35084111, the upper and lower tail regression fit I did back in 2020, and the recent work done by @TheRealPlanC on price quantiles. I just simply extend the work to asymmetric tails by letting upper and lower tails have separately estimated curvatures (b_HI vs b_LO) and showing the asymmetry Δb = −0.302 is statistically significant. Would recommend following both of them

Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen

a week ago

Just published a working paper: "Asymmetric Tail Curvature in Bitcoin Price Quantiles" benjamincowen.com/reports/asymme…

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Just read Stephen Perrenod's Substack and I'm blown away! 🤯 He explains why there was no Bitcoin bubble in 2025 and it's not because anything went wrong. It's because most people have been using the wrong model. The popular "4-year cycle" assumes bubbles repeat on a linear schedule. But Bitcoin is a power law asset, which means time itself should be measured logarithmically. When you do that, the fundamental bubble peaks land here: 6 Jun 2011 👉$32 30 Nov 2013 👉 $1,127 16 Dec 2017 👉 $19,665 NEXT> May 2027 👉 $300k–$500k? Each gap is roughly twice as long as the previous one. 2021 wasn't a fundamental peak just a harmonic echo sitting between the real beats. The maths points to the next major bubble peaking around May 2027, approximately 6,720 days after the Genesis Block of 3 January 2009. No bubble in 2025 wasn't a failure of Bitcoin. It was the model working exactly as expected. 👀 The chart shows Bitcoin's full price history on a log scale since the Genesis Block, with: The blue line as actual BTC price. Red dots for the three fundamental peaks (2011, 2013, 2017) The green triangle for the predicted May 2027 peak around $400k Notice how on a log scale the power law is a straight line, and the bubbles are the dramatic spikes above it, each one bigger in price but spaced further apart in time Full credit to Stephen Perrenod: substack.com/@stephenperren… & @moneyordebt Thanks Stephen 🙏

Holy shit man Take two minutes to listen to this