farhat rassi @Rassi71
amateur developer... surgeon by profession Joined December 2010-
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farhat rassi retweeted
The market-cap-to-M2 ratio at ~270% is elevated, but interpretation requires nuance. First, M2 growth has slowed sharply since 2022 and even contracted year-over-year at points — the first sustained decline since the 1930s. When the denominator shrinks while equities rise, the ratio mechanically spikes. That partly explains the +120 percentage-point jump. Second, U.S. equity composition has changed. Large-cap tech and AI firms generate a substantial share of revenues overseas. Market cap reflects global earnings streams, while M2 is a domestic liquidity measure. Comparing a globally exposed index to domestic money supply can overstate “liquidity excess.” For reference, during the 2000 peak, S&P 500 price-to-sales exceeded 2.3x and forward P/E surpassed 25x. Today, forward P/E for large caps has been closer to 20–22x, with profit margins near historical highs around 11–12%. Valuations are stretched, but not uniformly at dot-com extremes across sectors. International comparisons also matter. The UK, France, and Japan ratios near ~60% reflect different equity cultures and lower tech weightings. The U.S. market cap is roughly 70%+ of global equity market value, far above its share of global GDP. The more telling liquidity signals to monitor are real rates, credit spreads, and corporate earnings breadth. If earnings growth continues to outpace nominal money growth, the ratio can remain elevated longer than historical precedent suggests.
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