Shake Pryzby @ForborK

Narrator: It indeed, was *not* enough $CL_F

Shake Pryzby @ShakePryzby1

5 months ago

The fact that this caused crude to dip for a whole 30 mins before getting bought right up tells you everything you need to know about this bite sized band aid. If every drop of the 7 million barrels produced in Russia everyday went to plugging the 20 million/day hole from the

3 0 38 18K 5

Wrote this post a month ago concerning the frightening similarities between now & late 1973 into 1974, notably when Silver finally started running next to Gold and both eventually had climax tops. Got another terrible jobs report today that saw unemployment tick higher. I said "the main difference between now and then was the oil embargo which was the real wrench in the economy." Hey anybody check out crude prices lately? Let me take you back to Oct '73. Things categorically changed for the '73/'74 market once the oil embargo hit the tape. The 1973 oil embargo began on October 19, 1973 (circled/arrowed on chart below). The embargo was triggered by the Yom Kippur War when Egypt/Syria launched surprise attack on Israel on October 6th. The US supported Israel, which prompted OPEC's Arab members to retaliate in which they would embargo oil exports to the US while cutting overall production by 5% until Israel withdrew. Oil prices went parabolic and triggered stagflation. The S&P, as you can see in the chart below was trading just a few percent off all time highs as the market had chopped for months. The oil embargo didn't immediately send stocks lower, even though crude oil prices began their parabolic run that Friday. You can see that they continued chopping around for a week - and then finally broke and 6 weeks later were down 17% before the punishing bear market of 1974. Our entire economic plan was to run the economy pipingly hot to outgrow inflation. Well, one of the biggest CPI components just went vertical with crude running from $65 to $91 in the last week. The missing piece of the unfortunate puzzle may have just arrived. Position accordingly. 🫡 $SPY $QQQ $CL_F $GLD $SLV

Shake Pryzby @ShakePryzby1

6 months ago

I am kind of surprised we're not hearing more about the 1970's in terms of economic backdrop/similar analogs to our current environment. All weekend I spent looking at the different analogs of when gold and silver went on god-like runs, topped, and what happened to equities from

20 14 167 40K 62

Bessent with $1T in BP using the fake Hormuz crossing news as exit liquidity to cover his crude short from $116 into $76 $CL_F

In 2015, we were chopping for months and months. I was trying to short the hell out of $SPY break of 200sma. (1st chart) Breadth and market conditions had been deteriorating for weeks. I had my biggest short position I've had at the time at the first circled area. Took a nice chunky loss on it. Then on August 11th, China unexpectedly devalued the yuan in the largest single day devaluation in decades. This signaled global demand was in trouble, emerging markets got smoked and the dollar ripped. If you notice on the circled/arrowed candle -- that is August 12th the first day the market was reacting to this news. I said, "oh shit the catalyst is here!!" and began to get short once again that morning, only to have my face ripped off. The market initially shrugged off the news thinking we'd remain range bound as we had for months. "We're going to be in this chop forever." The buy the dip crowd had been conditioned for months at that point. Then the following Monday, we took out that August 12th low which perfectly aligned with the 200 day & hit an airpocket in a fast move lower. I missed the fucking short!! Was sick to my stomach. The trading lesson was to attack market shorts with puts and not levered stock shorts with tight stops. ANYWHO, equity markets reacting to this Iran news and the possibility of it sticking around longer than anticipated / what it will do to inflation / Fed's abilities to cut. Couple that with the "we're going to be in chop forever" take... I am not a doom and gloom guy in the slightest, this is all just referencing a past trading structure I traded.. but I am watching out for that air pocket 🧐

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

One day we’ll be in a raging bull market again. They will tell you how seat time does not matter. I want you to remember these times. You will never forget. You NEVER FORGET!

Something that has worked really well for us this quarter has been shorting names where the 10 and 30 week MA's are about to cross or have already done so. The two most recent examples were $PLTR short on earnings and $XLF short on a retest of the 200sma on the daily (coincided with price below a crossing 10/30 week MA) as we can see in charts 1 and 2. Heading into the final day of the week, chart 3, the $SPY has some serious work to do if it wants to avoid a 10 and 30 week cross soon. 10 week now sloping to downside after a stiff rejection from sellers on a retest this week. We can see how the last two crosses lead to drastic moves in both directions. This cross indicates major change of trend as we are seeing play out in PLTR and XLF. Don't shoot the messenger 🏳️

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

The Trader: @ShakePryzby1 Another US Investing Championship 1mil+ bracket top finisher! Founder of @PinpointTrding and also a guest on @TraderLion podcast with @RichardMoglen. A great approach to the market and even bigger passionate and energy that he brings to this game. I have learned a lot from him! I am lucky enough to have not only went to high school with Shake but but to have been his teammate blocking for him as my Quarterback and having him lead the huddle playing football together. Crazy to see where he is now!

What they don’t tell you is how differently $SPY $QQQ downtrends act from up. It’s designed to have violent moves off lows to suck longs in as liquidity traps to still eventually push price lower as we saw in the first 20 minutes today. Every other post on here last night was how oversold this 🐶💩market is. Good luck with that. We off to Hawaii. 😂🫡

It's another week, which means I will s/o 5 of my follows who consistently add value to my timeline here on X. I've said it many times, but my feed is intentionally curated, and the people I follow shape a lot about how I think about the markets and process it every single day. This week’s shoutouts include: @CFlanders7 – No introduction needed... the TL interview with @RichardMoglen was outstanding, and the results speak for themselves: USIC 2025 2nd place +167%. Incredible work and shares without expecting anything in return! @TLAMB91 – I’ve been following him for years, and Taylor is a genuinely good guy who loves life and shares real, actionable education without overcomplicating everything. @GnT_Trades – I’ve watched him grow over the past 2 years, and he is continually sharing gems every week. USIC 2025 #1 with +2115% is only part of the story... his consistency and process are inspiring to all who follow along! @investingluc – Luc’s dedication to his craft is untouchable. The depth he brings to technical and fundamental analysis is next level, and he’s a genuinely great guy who loves the markets. @ShakePryzby1 – His energy is infectious, he's wise beyond his years, and I've personally learned an extreme amount from him. Loving the markets, loving his family, and inspiring everyone around him, great guy to learn from! Also, USIC ’24 2nd place, $1M+ (legendary). This is just the tip of the iceberg, but each person brings a unique perspective that I study intentionally every day. More shoutouts coming next week! I'm grateful to have a feed full of people raising the bar for younger guys like myself. God bless, and I hope you all have a fantastic weekend!

iain @ohiain

5 months ago

Starting this week, I’m going to make it a habit to give credit where it’s due and shout out 5 of my follows each week! I’m extremely intentional about who I follow because my feed has completely shaped how I think about markets, process, and discipline. These people have

9 12 144 35K 84

📍

21 Mar 2025: On the 'bullish camp' argument, I noticed that one of the reasons cited are technical indicators suggests RSI is oversold and should bounce... I have something to say about technical indicators (having used multiple ones myself in the early beginnings like MACD, Stochastics, KST, RSI, etc.), they are merely a technical tool to stack odds in your favour in conjunction with price action and volume. If you plot an RSI on the $QQQ, you will notice that oversold can stay more oversold in good trending periods (RSI > 50, Year 2024). Similarly now that RSI for the $QQQ is at 40, so long as the level stays below 50, the reading can stay (and get) more oversold during weak market periods. Focus on what the individual stock setups are telling you, does price action and volume look like things are being accumulated? Look at multiple groups, are they all telling you the same story (use a weight of evidence approach)? This was a huge learning lesson for myself when I first started out. Hope it helps!

Clement Ang @Clement_Ang17

a year ago

@jfsrevg Asked Grok a little something based on historical past 5 days activity on X! To give you a sense of the proportion of X users in the "this market is oversold and should start to rally" camp versus the "this is a bear flag and should move lower" camp based on activity over the

0 0 22 12K 4

Should have stayed in Hawaii another week looking at this market action!! 🙃 Covering 20% of my $SPY puts into today's weakness to pay for some risk with constant TACO risk to the short side knowing its a mid term election year. Tough to be short relatively big size in this market with trump watching every tick. We may start see the selling pickup next week as I had anticipated in the referenced post. My philosophy in these type of markets -- try to make a little bit, don't lose a lot, and above all else keep your mental strong so you're ready for the turn whenever that may be. I'm not levering up with super short term put expirations because as we've seen in this chop, those positions become 100% losers quickly if market doesn't immediately flush. If you are trading for a living, i.e. for income, you understand there are markets to thrive and markets to survive. '23, '24 and much of '25 were markets to thrive with a constant trend to comfortably hold names for months when you had some distance from cost basis. In these markets I want max risk, the tightest of stops and to be in as many names as possible within my risk parameters. I am focused on aggressively moving my equity curve higher in these environments because frankly we don't know how long it will last. When we shift to these survival markets I completely transform my thought process. I have seen hundreds of traders blow up with this sort of backdrop so it's all about making a little, not losing a lot, and primarily keeping the mental strong so you're ready when it's time to push risk. It's easy to get overly pessimistic like the market will never trend or give us 'easy' environments again when we go through prolonged periods of market digestion. The reality of our situation is that we will likely be in chop or a bear type market for next 2 months at least. We have been spoiled with direction the past 5 years. Things can always change on a dime with this administration. I like to equate the importance of doing the 'boring things' to keeping your tools sharp in whatever sport. You have to keep up with charts akin to how you have to take jumpshots everyday in the offseason. $NVDA began its 1000%+ run at the end of '22 when the $SPY needed 3 more months to make an official bottom. If you get disinterested in a bear market, you don't understand the type of relative strength that is brewing and focus on names just beginning to rise with the market. The greatest long term opportunities are always born out of bear markets. Keep the faith and the mental in tact right now and understand there are times to thrive and times to survive. 🫡

Shake Pryzby @ShakePryzby1

5 months ago

In 2015, we were chopping for months and months. I was trying to short the hell out of $SPY break of 200sma. (1st chart) Breadth and market conditions had been deteriorating for weeks. I had my biggest short position I've had at the time at the first circled area. Took a nice

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

21 20 262 45K 82

I vividly remember in the beginning of '23, before the roaring bull market kicked off and $SPY needed a couple more months of consolidation + a final higher low to form, $NVDA just took off. We joked, no matter what happens, $NVDA will rise. Little did we know at the time this initial relative strength it was showing would be the start of a 1000%+ move over the next 30 months. This reminds me so much of the current $FSLY action, just goes up every single day no matter what ayatollah is calling the shots. If market is stable, $FSLY is probably $40+ right now. Can only imagine where this thing is headed over the next 30 months. 💡

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Haven't dealt with any trolls in a while, miss you guys. So here you go: Shorted a starter position in $LITE today for potential double top. Reminds me so much of $IREN double top last quarter. Let's look at the qualities: -424% move in 5 months and 1617% move in less than a year. The bigger the prior run, the more violent the eventual unwind. IREN was up ~1000% in prior 5 months and around that 1000% market for prior year as well. -Widest weekly candle ranges always appear near climax tops with exponential steepening into the top. Weekly chart shows this obviously and vividly on chart #4. -Who is left to buy besides you on twitter?! 112% institutional ownership is flat out stupid. Everyone who wants some of this guy surely already does. I am probably early, that's why I only hit a starter position. If we needed to take out highs before another failure begins the true leg down as in $IREN's case last year, I am positioned for it. So please trolls go ahead and tell me why I'm an idiot for looking to short a name that has 16x'd the past year and a super cycle is about to begin 🫡

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Even shorts are getting difficult to play out here! $LITE $AXTI. @ShakePryzby1 One day they squeeze me out of $PLTR the next they are retracting the whole move

In December '23 I decided it was time to begin taking steps 'out of the shadows' in order to get my name out there to start my own fund, which has been my dream since I first achieved profitability in 2015. I saw @traderlion, who is the premiere educational space in the financial world, would interview anybody who won the US Investing Championship. So I made a little plan, win the '24 USIC. Earn my TL Interview, join twitter Jan '25. Launch Fund '26. I did not win so I had to resort to plan B which was bothering the shit out of my guy @RichardMoglen all year 😂. I will tell you, there is nothing sweeter in life than delayed gratification. This is a big full circle moment for me. I do things a little different than most, but at the end of the day it's what simply works for ME, and that's all I can hope to accomplish. Check this out. 3 hours of gems. I hope you learn something. 13 years of blood, sweat & keyboards lead me to this moment! Thank you again to my friends over at @traderlion!

Richard Moglen @RichardMoglen

10 months ago

I just posted my interview with @ShakePryzby1! Tons of golden nuggets in this one! ✅Using intraday entries to trade weekly patterns ✅Friday Swings Concept ✅Reading Price action ✅Themes & Market Health ✅Rollover Short Setup ✅Trade Walkthroughs youtu.be/iu2gdI1cO88

30 31 298 320K 269