Bassem.✪ @BassemOptions

$SPY Hope you all had a great weekend. Here are the paths price can take from here. The lines drawn don’t mean price should go in a straight line up or down, it’s just to help visualise the moves. It’s definitely a tough market to navigate right now (unless you close your eyes and buy calls anyway). 1) That’s the most probable and realistic path. Price needs to reject 713-718 and start correcting towards 690 or slightly lower, then go back up to make a new all time high at 730-732 or higher. Technically, even if price extends the correction to 660 it’s still a buyable dip. 2) Another very likely path. Price rejects 713-718, finds support in the 680s or a bit lower and bounces off hard, but only to make a lower high at 698-703 before rolling over. That’ll be very bearish and risks visiting the March lows. 3) This path is a lot less likely than the previous two but it’s still possible. Price breaks through the 713-718 resistance without a pull back and goes straight to 732-736. Price will then reject there and correct in a very harsh and fast way to the 680s or lower, then eventually finds support above the 200 dma and make a new all time high. 4) That’s the least likely path right now but I will definitely consider it and keep it in mind. We continue a blow off top towards 732-736 without a meaningful pullback, then lights out. An extreme non stop selling wave comes with small bounces in between all the way back to March lows, or lower. The least likely scenarios have been the ones playing out recently so don’t sleep on it. It’s too early to tell which one will end up playing out. I will have to take it one level at a time. It’s good however to keep these scenarios in your heads and on your charts to know how to react around each level (If this, then that).

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#BREAKING: Warren Buffett says U.S. investors are in a “gambling mood” more than ever before.

$SPY Hope you all are enjoying your weekend. We’ll see how futures open tomorrow evening but the plan is simple regardless. The 5 dma is the key, a close below it on Monday without reclamation on Tuesday is a signal for me to get back in puts. If the 5 dma gets tested but holds instead, that’s a signal for me to get calls for the move to 728-732. That’s it. Enjoy your evenings✌️

$SPY Let’s apply what was learned. Shall we ? For me to get back in short I need either a close below the 5 dma or a rejection at 732-736, whichever comes first. A $5-$6 drop from here won’t interest me. If we get a dip early next week, and it looks like we might get it, I want to see whether the 5 dma holds or not. It should be around the 713 fib resistance now support. If price holds there that’ll be an opportunity for calls to ride the move to 728-732. If it doesn’t hold and price closes below it then that’s an opportunity for puts to target 702-695-688. If we get a pullback I’ll look for the 5 monthly sma as a bounce zone to buy calls and profit taking for puts. A pullback and a hold there will be super bullish. For bears to have anything, they have to invalidate the entire monthly candle of April, which will be very difficult, but not impossible, so be open minded about the entire rally fading, it can happen, but it’s not the most likely case anymore. One level at a time. I’ll leave you with that because I’ll log off the screens. I’ll go into the weekend in cash and I’ll see what we get Monday morning. Have a good weekend✌️

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$SPY I can’t believe some people here can’t even buy the idea of a dip. Even if it’s a corrective dip to go higher afterwards, they are like “the market won’t drop again, we are going straight to 750-800.” Tough lessons will be taught to the greedy perma bulls soon. That’s just how markets work.

$SPY What if Donnie T told Scotty B to pump the market as high as possible before the war resumes, so when it does, the market only drops back to 690s or 680s. If Trump attacks Iran again and spy drops back $50 from here or 732 it’ll be in the 680s or worse case 670s. That’ll be a nice dip to buy. This is purely guessing and I’m just thinking out loud fyi.

$SPY A lot, but a very obvious technical one is the 5 dma. If I had just waited for a couple of closes below it to short, I would have lost nothing. Look at the chart. Quants rode it all the way up. What makes it hurt even more is that I knew better. I’m not an amateur. I just couldn’t believe it can rally so much in such a short period of time without a meaningful pullback. Last time this happened was in the 1920s, over a hundred years ago. I still knew better but it’s alright. I’m sharing this so we can all learn together.

Treylorswift @treylorswift

a month ago

@Basssem666 What were the lessons learned ?

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$SPY I lost a little over 20% of my entire trading capital shorting this rally at every resistance from the 670s to 718. The worst drawdown I have ever experienced to be honest. Few lessons learned. Drawdowns teach you a lot more than winning streaks. Actually, the lessons learned from drawdowns are what fuels the winning streaks. Ready to bounce back stronger✌️💪!

$SPY Your boy is monitoring the situation from the bench now. I’m basically waiting for 732 to open puts and 695 to open calls. Not expecting to get any of the these levels today so I’ll likely go into the weekend all cash.

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$SPY $USO Indexes at all time highs and oil holding well above $100. Totally normal price action. Watch spy rip to 732 with oil above 110. Totally normal. @SecScottBessent Kudos to Scotty B for holding it all together somehow. Bro is so good.

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$SPY 3 different routes, one ultimate destination. That’s how I see the price action for the next 2-4 weeks. 1- A move up towards 660-663, followed by a move down all the way to 631 minimum. 2- A stronger move up towards 666-672, followed by a move down all the way to 631 minimum. 3- No more room for a move up and the path to 631 minimum starts immediately from here. Obviously the drop to 631 doesn’t necessarily have to be in a straight line, wherever it starts going down, although that’s possible, for sure.

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I think your definition of fraud is a bit off and I’ll tell you why. I took a couple of shorts right under the 200 dma that I closed for a 40% loss after the ceasefire squeeze, then I started a much bigger position that I currently have open. If I just get a 40% or 50% on it I’ll make up all the losses and be very green on the whole thing. How ? Because of position sizing. I had a much smaller size in the 650s so the loss wasn’t big. Now I have a significantly bigger position because the risk/reward is better, so I’ll make a lot more. That’s the real edge in this business. You limit your losses when you’re wrong and maximise your gains when you’re right. No problem with calling out frauds but the problem is calling out someone for being wrong, because everyone has been wrong before and will be wrong again. Everyone.

Yan Gao @YanWGao

2 months ago

@Basssem666 You need people to call other's out though. It's essential. For instance lots of accounts which entered puts around the $667 and $676 mark who are DEEP underwater, 40 to 50% and then all of sudden we get a rejection from $682 to $679 and they're like (TOLD YOU I'M IN PROFIT NOW).

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True. You’ll never see me share something for someone I disagree with to mock them. If I don’t like someone’s content I just ignore it.

John @market_sleuth

2 months ago

Psychology Tip: The folks who screenshot or share your posts only to ridicule you are highly insecure & immature. They do this for validation from their followers (they crave the backslapping). Successful & confident people don’t do this. Remember that. 💯

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$SPY the ceo of $PLTR has been getting doggystyled by @michaeljburry for a while now that he probably asked Trump to pump his stock out of desperation 😂 It still didn’t work😭.

Barchart @Barchart

2 months ago

Love the stock symbol addition 😂😂😂

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$SPY Nailed it today and I’m swinging🎯 La remontada comienza ahora. Vamonos🔥

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Bassem @Basssem666

2 months ago

$SPY Expecting all of this to fade by the end of the day even if it went higher. If not I’ll cut.

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$SPY I really hate stating the obvious and I thought I won’t have to, but here we are. This is not a cool CPI print by any means. It’s below expectations but it’s hot as hell. They raised the expectations so much that it came slightly below it, but inflation came in EXTREMELY HIGH nonetheless.

$SPY Finally got the rejection candle and I’m back green on my puts. I want some follow through next, not necessarily today but the sooner the better.

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$SPY Kinda makes sense 🤔🤔

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$SPY From a technical standpoint, all signals are flashing red, and not just on one timeframe. We currently have bearish RSI divergences on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. This kind of triple divergence is extremely rare and historically has preceded major market tops. Price has continued to climb while momentum is weakening across all timeframes, a classic sign of exhaustion. If you zoom out to the monthly chart, the picture becomes even more compelling. We’re sitting right around 657, which is the 50% Fibonacci extension drawn from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis bottom, a level that often behaves as a golden resistance zone in macro bull markets. Historically, during a healthy bull cycle, pullbacks tend to respect the 21-monthly moving average. But once a market enters full bear territory, those corrections deepen into the 50-monthly moving average. $SPY hasn’t touched the 50MA since the COVID crash. It almost did at the end of the 2022 bear market. If this rally fails to hold, that could be the next gravitational pull. I think we are currently in a topping process. Now, can we grind a little higher? Sure. Technically, $665-$666 could be the final squeeze zone. And if we blow past that in a blow-off top, then the last line in the sand is at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at $728, which is still visible on the chart. What makes this even more critical is the macro backdrop. We’re in stagflation territory. Inflation is creeping back up due to tariffs and supply shocks, unemployment is rising, the jobs market is deteriorating, and banks are deeply exposed. This is not the environment for continued risk-on behavior. The Fed is cornered, and even if Powell softens his tone, it may be too late. Liquidity is drying, credit is tightening, and consumer resilience is cracking. All the signs, technical, macro, and sentiment, suggest this is the turning point. Whether the fall starts now or squeezes one last time to 720s before falling, I believe we are witnessing the end of a full market cycle. I’ll pin the post until the thesis play out.

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$SPY Good morning. I really hope this gap down holds or open lower. My plan is basically the following: If we open red i’ll scale back in calls. Selling on the spike after hours was the right move and now I’ll get a much better re entry, if the gap down holds, this market is wild and anything can happen. Although we may drop below it intraday, i’ll be looking for a close above the 50 weekly sma, if we close below it today I’ll get out. I’m only targeting 652 for calls, nothing crazy. If we get a gap up instead, or if we hit 651-653 intraday I’ll scale in puts. It won’t be a very big position like the one I’ll get in the 670s, but a rejection in the 650s is worth a shot right now.

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