Hermanator @leadfollowlive

focused on our own lane building overcoming every obstacle that comes our way 😭 Crying official links: tg: t.me/loudlycryingfa… website: cryingfacesol.com CA: 2dmkb3i6A3QJ43aZ2C27sXjYHtpgqJWqBPPiz73mpump

@CryingFaceMeme We will not go quietly 😭😭😭😭

@CryingFaceMemes The charts are bleeding, my "alpha" is dead, I’m thinking of selling my organs instead. The bulls are all ghosts, and the "tech" was a lie, So I bought a coin that’s just meant to cry. It’s the only project that’s hitting its goals: Providing zero hope for our shattered souls. I’m buying the bottom (or so I keep saying), While looking for "Waitress" jobs and praying.

@DonnyDicey Let's not get all teary eyed shall we, there are members of the community who held, and is still holding, cause you know, "there is a big plan." Maybe what should be taken from Crash is "he who shils one coin a thousand times....." or however the story goes.

@mikealfred As simple as that 👌🏼

@DonnyDicey @flyingkethorse There are clues everywhere, and it's difficult to ignore what looks to be something like "crony capitalism". Only time will tell I guess.

@astronomer_zero I hope more will find you soon before their savings get drained by influencers. I'm a proud participant in the Codex training, a system which value should not be underestimated. God bless you @astronomer_zero

@DonnyDicey @flyingkethorse So, are you saying I should transfer my entire $Bucky stack to $FKH ??

$BTC - is the bear market here? Why using MA's is essentially gambling. Alright, the is about the 7th time I get tagged of someone telling me the following: "We closed below the 50W MA and are far below it, so the bear market started". Okay, I like your thinking. Using actual data to predict price. However, have you thoroughly fact checked this data? Who brought you to the idea, did you come up with this yourself? All power to you, regardless of the answer, but just a simple check, can help you very far. So I will quickly present you here why using MA's is something only "chartists" do, but has 0 use in trading as it is essentially gambling. Indeed, I will simply and effectively show you how, it has no merit to use a random average price of the x most recent candle closes, as a metric whether price will go down or up. The data MA's are broad, so let's use something truly relevant right now as an example. Since so so many people are confidently and loudly preparing for the bear market, almost as if they have their limit orders ready to buy $BTC at 50k/40k/30k... wouldn't it be great to present how most of the data I have to debunk time after time (the one of the 50 W MA), is a pure myth of fairy dust... So as mentioned, the argument goes: Astro, we closed below the 50 W MA and are significantly below it, that has "always" been a bear market trigger. Well, let's check, and let's check properly (non cherry picked). On the chart below, I highlighted every single weekly swing low that has formed each time $BTC fell under the 50 WMA. And I did that throughout its entire history (no cherry picking) What's a swing low? It's per classic institutional definition: a candle where the low of the candle to the left and right are both higher than the candle itself. Indeed, the very definition of a low, in its most simple and fundamental form. To eliminate even more noise, I only counted the swing lows where also a candle close below the 50 W MA has been placed (otherwise, a wick into the 50W MA, would also be counted as a bottom, and the data would look even less favorable for the bear market callers here, so, I choose your side wherever I can). The times of the first weekly swing lows after which $BTC went from closing above to closing below the 50 W MA are: ➡️17 Oct 2011 ➡️18 Aug 2014 ➡️18 Jun 2018 ➡️(25 Nov 2019) ➡️9 Mar 2020 ➡️19 Jul 2020 ➡️13 Dec 2021 And today: ➡️17 Nov 2025 For each of the occasions, price headed lower, 3 out of 6 times. And 3 out of 6 times, price printed the absolute bottom. Yes, I left out 25 Nov 2019 (covid crash, if it didn't happen, it would have been a bottom, otherwise, technically price heading lower, although it went so quick, that it is hard to call it a prolonged bear market, so let's skip it. The results do not change much). So in essence, if you are using this as a sole argument to call whether the bear market is in or not, then you are essentially betting your money on a coinflip i.e. you are gambling. The problem with MA's I don't really have an issue with MA's. They can be useful, but they are purely descriptive. So, they are nice to see on charts, and "chartists" often use them to describe price: "Price is below the MA, price is above the MA, price is far below the MA, price is far above the MA" But they are not predictive. If price is "far" below the MA, it doesn't mean price will perform a mean reversion => followed by a reversal i.e. a bottom Or a mean reversion => followed by continuation lower As I have just shown with this example. To use them whether they have the power to call a bear market or not, is a complete toss-up. And that is because of their core problem: they carry no logic. They are simply the average price of the most recent x candles. No one cares what that price is. Institutions don't care, the trend doesn't care, the macro economics don't care, the whales don't care, no one cares. If a trend is "riding" the 20 ma, that is just a description of the steepness of the trend. If the trend changes, then all the 20 ma buyers will get rekt. If the trend steepens even ever so slightly, then the 20 ma buyers will all get front run and have to fomo in higher. They just describe the steepness of the trend, they don't define the trend, and the same is true for bear markets, they don't define bear markets (or bull markets either). Conclusion The 50 MA, and MA's in general, have no statistical power (not even negatively i.e. in counter sense), nor do they care any logic. They are completely descriptive, and completely random in predictive power. To call whether the bear market has started, or we just printed another bull market bottom, it's best to use other, more logical and statistically powerful data. Let this be clear. IMO anyone using MA's should just be classified as a chartist with no implication on stakes. Or he or she is just trying to describe price and has no ability to predict price, at least not using those metrics. So all power to them, but best not to mix both up, even if said influencer tells you how "perfectly" price bounced off his or her ma. Great, but not great for consistently being successful in this game. Successful trading and investing is just as much about using the right data, as avoiding the wrong data. Especially the latter, so here is another piece to your puzzle of mastery. Take it, or leave it. This is just my view. It's up to you if you believe it.

The BTC chart looks primed pre-FOMC meet. Lets get this show rolling — we know all-time-highs are coming soon, regardless of the immediate/short term scenario. Though, even for that I'm leaning bullish. Price wants to snap back towards that bull-run line. We'll see if a sweep comes first. Don't care. Clear that green line + equities in price discovery + DXY nuking + MOVE index nuking. That's your signal that it's happening. Continue to stack if you see things like I see them — one candle changes everything, as you've seen and felt many times over. Charts are just waiting for the green light. All micro-fluctuations are noise.

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Donny @DonnyDicey

6 months ago

The "bear flag" looking quite good here for BTC. Green dotted line amounts to copious levels of liquidity waiting to be torn through. I gave you the context endlessly for this entire exaggerated dip. If the range low is reclaimed by MSTR — it indicates JP Morgan has finished

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22 27 208 24K 8

@decodejar "Your education, experience, and overall aptitude and ability remain the most critical components of your toolset." There you have it folks👌

@DonnyDicey "especially when it’s increasingly clear that it’s becoming a U.S. financial weapon" This statement alone 🫰. If you think the world is unaware and uninformed, you are mistaken. New style of economic warfare = new strategies. Not fact, only my 2c.

I'm having a fat scroll through X to see what people are thinking regarding the technicals for BTC now that we've bounced somewhat. From my point of view, majority are once again ignoring macro signals and looking for rejections at basically every single level on the chart — calling for reversal to one of these points: 93K, 98K, 100K, 102K, 108K, 110K, 111K, 112K, and then a roll over to goblin town. We’ve heard this same rhetoric after every correction this cycle — the only difference is that this was the first correction that has flashed major bearish technical structures, especially if basing it off "historical" BTC price action. Which I believe is why this shakeout in particular is extremely effective and will leave a large majority sidelined and hesitant to get back in, until they capitulate long once the velocity of the move overwhelms them. I’ve already given context for why this cycle is evidently much different — price structure, timing, adoption, catalysts, macro. All of it feeds the same setup. The same playbook. Even a cyclical drawdown has the inclination to now look much different to historical crypto examples. It can still fit similar time cycles, but the prices will likely be far different to expectations, again if basing it on historical examples. The other popular scenario on the bullish side is: "one final leg up". That leaves us with the most offside trade being once again: Higher for longer. But it seems many have one foot or both out the door, even with bullish risk asset tailwinds ahead. Macro supports this massively. The market is not prepared/positioned for Fed Funds to head toward 2% or lower, nor the implications of that move. Continued fiscal largesse, some form of yield curve control, and every incentive for policymakers to dampen AI-driven labour shocks and juice the midterms. Layer on top the increasing signs of a structural DXY bear market, which all of the above adds to. And then there’s crypto being weaponised through stablecoins to create more buyers of U.S. debt. You can already see the banking cartel moving fast on this front. To increase stablecoin demand, the landscape is engineered for an environment where risk will do well. The debt based fiat ponzi scheme has needed more ways to roll the debt over time, this is a new, very effective mechanism being implemented. Pump risk (BTC) → attract global capital → increase demand for USD denominated assets → increase stablecoin demand. The hotter this gets, the more BTC outpaces Gold — unless all of this adoption side stuff from the financial elites of the world is all for shits and giggles (near zero chance). Even if we get a sharp, deep drop after the next leg up (it will likely be from much higher levels, firstly), financial authorities will do what they always do: catch the falling knife with the liquidity bazooka. BTC will act as a sponge. BlackRock has made the playbook around BTC and currency debasement very clear. Also, for the ones saying BlackRock ‘wants lower prices to accumulate’… calls for sub 60K & 50K.. They actually need higher BTC prices to drive institutional and sovereign adoption. Sovereigns do not accumulate illiquid, shaky assets. Higher prices accelerate adoption — not lower ones. From micro to macro, I genuinely don’t understand how people are so deeply bearish on BTC and crypto — especially when it’s increasingly clear that it’s becoming a U.S. financial weapon. The debt monster must be fed. Not saying don’t protect against downside — play your own book. But this idea that we’re about to enter some prolonged doomsday bear market.. when things are moving faster than ever.. I just don’t see it — and nothing in the data suggests it and not just surface level data, my entire world-view opposes the idea. BTC ripping into a fifth year breaks every mental model traders anchor to, and that mispricing alone is going to be enormous amounts of fuel. "Where does it top out?" Never??".

@CrashiusClay69 You know, now that everyone is calling on governments and large corporations to pump their bags, perhaps Monero still represents what Decentralised Capital was meant to be, so yes, strawberry smoothy loving Crash might be onto something here.

lmfao

The top is not in. The market is not over. Anyone who is parroting this does not understand the macro and global liquidity situation. We have been in a deep liquidity constricting environment for years, and Crypto has not pushed overall because it is a vehicle of that liquidty we have not had. BTC has pushed on institutional adoption and global acceptance. Stocks are only pushing because of AI. GOLD has been pushing because of financial and trade uncertainty. There has not been an overall bull market. It is only BTC and a select few others, and the exact same in the stock market. Most stocks, like most crypto, are under-performing... And that is because of how the macro has been for years. BUT that is literally about to change, and we are leaving the liquidity constricting phase and re-entering expansion. Let me explain guys. - TGA is at $1tn(the highest in 4 years). As soon as the US Gov reopens a lot of this will be emptied into the reserves, increasing liquidity and lending, pushing M2 about $1tn, adding large fuel for risk assets. If we were entering a bear market this would be bottoming out, not peaking. - ON RRP is at near zero The Overnight Reverse Repo is at near zero which shows us that all money is parked in private markets. If we were entering a bear market and a liquidity constricting environment this would be accelerating aggressively, just like it did in 2021/22, as Money market funds stop fucking with treasuries and seek safe haven from liquidity constriction. - QT is ending The FED has been reducing their balance sheet for 4 years, from $9tn to $6.5tn, reducing liquidity and stifling lending, which fucks growth entirely. December 1st this stops and liquidity begins to enter expansion again. $25bn/mo stops falling off the balace sheet/reserves. If we were entering a bear marker this would not be happening. - Interest rates are coming down Interest rates coming down makes lending cheaper, promotes business and growth and increases liquidity in risk markets. If we were entering a bear market, rates would not be coming down alongside all these other factors. - China and Japan stimulating China have been stimulating all year, and Japan have announced a further $93bn fiscal package and are keeping interest rates at 0.50%. This Yen stimulus enables the Yen carry trade to continue which creates a risk on environment, funelling capital straight into riskier assets. You CANNOT compare this current market to 2021 in any way shape or form it is worlds apart. You cannot compare it to 2019 either... the financial landscape was in crisis then and the FED stopped QT because liquidity was getting so low SOFR rates were hitting 10% and the system was cracking. Right now the financial situation is controlled and easing, and the liquidity is about to flow in a big way. We literally have a super cocktail of liquidity on the very near horizon, better than anything we have had in years. The markets are not going to enter a bear market just as they are about to receive huge liquidity injections. It's impossible. And this is all happening whilst BTC is about to hit its 1W 50SMA and everyone is capitulating. Coincidence? No. Understand where we are, understand the macro, and understand how this game works. You are being shaken out on the eve of liquidity xmas and no one is looking at it properly. The ONLY thing that matters for Crypto is liquidity, and we have been in a liquidity starved environment for years. This is why Alts have suffered so greatly... they are the highest risk asset in the world, and need positive liquidity to run. This cycle has played out longer because this process has ben delayed and the FED have held rates too high for too long... But it has to change, and it is about to change. Don't fuck it up here.

@CryptoNobler Go flip burgers, honestly.

Taurine + Ginseng = Based Farts 🟦💨

Determined and full of gas 🟦💨

Most of you don't understand $BUCKY or why it's moving first in the meme market: The market's whales have shown their thirst for a "Pepe on Solana" through $FWOG in Q4 of 2024 ($720M MC peak). But there was no written lore. It was the same colour as Pepe, but not "better" like the bright green glow Bucky has. $BUCKY is hard coded to go to billions in market cap. The supply ensures that 1 Buck is equal to 1 Dollar which equals 1 Billion. The market wants the simplest reason why price needs to go higher, and why they should all bid towards that goal — so long as the market continues to trend higher. This is the easiest layup I've ever seen. Wave 2 for memes is typically the one that explodes in market cap as whales fight for supply in a memecoin that actually made it past Wave 1, and didn't die in the re-accumulation phase. You saw the horrible market conditions that we just had. Bucky didn't break. Now it's pricing in what's ahead. $BUCKY is the $PEPE of @bonkfun. $BONK and $BUCKY both emerged from the 2019 meme renaissance — the “new age” 4chan wave where the absurd and chaotic humour defined the tone of the memes. $BONK is the modern DOGE — playful & super bizarre. $BUCKY is the modern PEPE — bright green (a shade lighter than Pepe), origins to Pepe, and inherently bizarre as well. That comparison is exact. The market will bid this to infinity.

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