Eric Mbulwe @ericmbulwe
Investments | Projects | Risk | Wealth Management Lusaka, Zambia. Joined August 2015-
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The persistent depreciation of the Kwacha against major currencies as well as elevated food (maize and maize products) and energy (fuel) prices continued to push inflation up in the fourth quarter of 2023. #MPCDecision #BoZ
The Bank stands ready to take appropriate action should inflation persist above the 6-8 target band. The next Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will take place on February 12 and 13, 2024. #MPCDecision #BoZ
Decisions on the Policy Rate will continue to be guided by inflation outcomes, forecasts, and identified risks, including those associated with financial stability and external debt restructuring. #MPCDecision #BoZ
The build-up in geopolitical tensions, including the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and the recent Israel-Hamas war, further tightening in global financial conditions as inflation remains elevated, and weather-related shocks are the key upside risks to the inflation outlook.
The effects of tightening global financial conditions, working through the exchange rate and expectations channels, as well as elevated food and fuel prices are expected to drive inflation during the forecast horizon and push it further away from the 6-8% target band #MPCDecision
Inflationary pressures are expected to intensify over the forecast horizon covering Q4 of 2023 to Q3 of 2025. Inflation is projected to average 10.9%, 11.4% , and 9.6% in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. #MPCDecision #BoZ
There was a modest build up in gross international reserves in line with the ECF arrangement. Reserves increased to US$2.9 billion (equivalent to 3.2 months of import cover) at end-September from US$2.7 billion (2.9 months of import cover) at end-June. #MPCDecision
On November 13, 2023, #BoZ increased the statutory reserve ratio (SRR) by 300 basis points to 14.5% . Noting the persistence of pressures in the foreign exchange market, on November 21, 2023, the SRR was adjusted by a further 250 basis points to 17% effective Nov 27, 2023.
To moderate volatility and help meet critical import requirements, #BoZ had to sell a large proportion of the foreign exchange from mining taxes paid directly into the Bank in US dollars. In Q3, US$173.0 million was sold against the US$256.4 million received as mining taxes.
Sustained excess demand for foreign exchange, amid low supply, especially from the mining sector, and the strengthening of the US dollar on the international market have been the key factors explaining the observed depreciation of the Kwacha against major currencies. #BoZ
In Q3, the Kwacha depreciated by 5.8% against the US dollar and the pressure has persisted in Q4. Between end-September and November 21, 2023, the Kwacha depreciated by 10.9% to K23.30 per US dollar. #MPCDecision #BoZ
Constrained supply due to adverse weather conditions amid high regional demand largely explain the sustained rise in maize grain prices. High international crude oil prices and a weaker exchange rate have been the 2 key factors in the increase in retail fuel prices. #MPCDecision
Inflation rose to an average of 11% in Q3 from 9.9% Q2. In October, inflation increased to 12.6% from 12% in September. Higher food and retail fuel prices + the depreciation of the Kwacha against the US dollar have been the major drivers of these inflationary pressures.
The #MPCDecision was informed by the current and projected inflation moving further away from the 6-8% target band. Inflationary pressures have persisted since the last MPC Meeting in August, 2023. #BoZ
The Monetary Policy Rate has been raised by 100 basis points to 11.0 percent. This decision was arrived at by the Monetary Policy Committee at its Meeting held on November 20-21, 2023. Governor, Dr. Denny Kalyalya, is currently delivering the Statement. #MPCDecision #BoZ
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