Konstantin @cziugas
Opinions should be taken with a grain of salt until I have grey hair which will happen in about 2043. Stay tuned tho. Lithuania Joined June 2017-
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@ThierryBreton @X @DigitalEU Unelected bureaucrat trying to censor free speech, how more orwellian can you get without realizing it @ThierryBreton
Too many people think in labels.
Late night Mathematica! trying to estimate second moment of Poisson Distribution. Can't make to many points of function since the squaring will make big difference for big vlaues therefore you will have a_1*1=not close zero, and the true asnwer is λ^2+λ.
The biggest lie is to expect people to be honest and open. People tell you the truth they want you to see. Not the truth you want to see.
I'm planning to travel to US with a friend for summer to work random job like dishwashing. It's called Work and Travel program. I hope everything goes fine. app.interexchange.org/cooperators/29…
Lately I discovered a heuristic: if the statement is intuitive/obvious skip the proof. I hate proving for the sake of proving. But the notion of intuition should be extremely concrete and honest.
ETHICS: in politics, be JUDGE, never advocate. Best news: to get msgs, DMs, & mail from imbeciles from every side in every country telling me I *betrayed* them because I didn't line up. F***k off; all of you I am so independent I never cluster positions & I am proud of it.
ETHICS: in politics, be JUDGE, never advocate. Best news: to get msgs, DMs, & mail from imbeciles from every side in every country telling me I *betrayed* them because I didn't line up. F***k off; all of you I am so independent I never cluster positions & I am proud of it.
@engineers_feed For $12 million, should look like this…
Best way to to pass(with a decent grade) boring subjects is to PROCRASTINATE and people do get it. I am able to study for 10 hours because I am forced by lack of time.
Just learned about Cantor’s Set. Where’s the trick? It’s so mind bending. Something is off here. A set of length 0 has as many elements as the Real numbers? That’s funny
Reading books in english on a daily basis, but can’t speak fluently.
Mathematics. So let us journey, hearts afire, Through iterations, never tire. In Mandelbrot's embrace we find, A world of wonders, for all time. Art by Sue Chait, @suechait, Used with permission.
Study something old but not visibly useful (classics), something modern and useful (accounting, coding), never something new and not visibly useful.
Calling someone smart has no meaning and it’s annoying. Better say one is honorable, worthy, disciplined, curious, non-boring, street-smart.
When someone refers to psychology "results" for backup, ask: what is the SINGLE significant result psychologists have discovered that is both correct and not well known (and used) by ancients, used car salespeople, magicians, & swindlers. Ignore psychologists. #Lindy.
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87.3M Followers 51 Following 45th President of the United States of America🇺🇸Imagine for a moment a thought experiment: A coin flipping contest that started out with 1,000 contestants. After the first round there’d be 500, then 250, then 125, then… Eventually, there’d be a small cadre of super flippers who would go on to write learned articles on the…
Double Fooled by Randomness du Jour. 1) Diversification is not aimed at raising returns but lowering variance ACROSS possible histories. What if MSFT went to 0? 2) Cherry Picking: Consider the 000s of entrepreneurs who DID NOT diversify. #Hindsight #Imbecile
When I was a junior trader I had a PM that used to force all the juniors to put in screen time for hours (sitting and watching markets intraday), despite the bulk of our trading being completed before 12pm ET. At first I found it a bit annoying. As I grew older I realized how…
People spend way too long searching for that one amazing strategy or until they are better at quant before they put anything live. Just try to put something live with a little bit of money asap. The learning experience will be so much more valuable than what you might loose.…
A list of some of my favorite youtube channels related to quant. 🧵 1/n
What is the fair price of insurance? A simple application of geometric expectation. Short thread 🧵: 1/
Straddle cause unsure which side vol rises Based on @zero2quant answer, Delta being 1 or close to 1 (limited returns) I think it's a protective position to short dividends? @BlackSwan_ptf????
Jr options trading interview questions: 1\ which strategy(\ies) would you implement using both a call and a put, if you expect volatility to rise? 2\ do you recognise the following payoff at T? if the stock reaches 150%K: are you long or short dividends?
Charlie Munger on Stoicism.
This gets an A+
@quant_questions Not spectacularly shown work nor the most efficient, but 14 flips. Also included a snippet of Python code that runs 1M simulations of the scenario and comes to the same conclusion.
@miniapeur There are tons in probability. Here's one where Heads-Heads and Heads-Tails on a fair coin take different amounts of time to come up youtu.be/t8xqMxlZz9Y
quant intern interview question: what’s wrong w this simulation?
Threw together an interactive plot to explore the effect a stop-loss policy has on the distribution of returns based on the @hudson_thames reading group: 1. Shift in expected return is minimal except for extreme stop losses. 2. But you still avoid catastrophic tail events.
You see a lot of beginners trying to start off in quant with stat arb or other similar types of strats. I don't think that's the right approach. People starting out will have the worst fees and the worst execution yet those types of strats are most sensitive to those. Better to…
This tweet can single handily add 15 years to your life.
Following all this research to its logical conclusion: +There is no other way to age gracefully than to become an endurance athlete, training >12h/week. +Contrary to popular belief, there is no compelling health reason for the young to be athletes; it's a thing for seniors.
@dzviovich @financequant @RDouady @DrCirillo From math.wm.edu/~leemis/chart/… Can do a video commenting on applications.
Long Volatility Versus Tail Risk Hedging In order to hedge for tail risk on a long portfolio, a strategy can be to purchase deep out-of-the-money (OTM) puts. This has a negative carry as we'll see below. With this approach, if there's an unexpected volatile event your hedge…
Here is what I'd do step by step if I were to start over with quant: Please retweet so that as many people as possible can find out about those resources. 1/n
Great summary. When I wrote the foreword to Spitz's Safe Haven I missed the connection to Cramèr who in early 1900 solved the problem: Insurance requires a < subexponential dist. which BY DEFINITION allows one to use the law of large numbers w/o hitting the absorbing barrier.
Bernoulli's Saint Petersburg Merchant Paradox vimeo.com/708841050?ref=…
Interesting & counterintuitive probability problem. In the initial scenario (i), there's a tie; in the subsequent scenario (ii), Alice faces a higher probability of going broke first: