Alexander Harmsen @alexharm

What would happen if a country’s population started shrinking because of low fertility rates? For some countries, this is a reality, such as France, Germany, and South Korea. And the ramifications go beyond this being an anthropological curiosity: 1. A shrinking population leads to the workforce growing smaller, which usually means a shrinking of the economy. And while technology can lead to increased productivity, it can’t always make up for the difference. What’s more, a smaller workforce means smaller tax income collected by the government, which will impact the service provided by said government. 2. The number of retired people compared to the workforce will skyrocket, i.e. for every able-bodied individual in the workforce, there will be more and more retirees. The problem here is that for most countries that offer the older generation a pension and healthcare, e.g. France, this can be catastrophic because these programs are funded by the work of the younger generation. 3. Technology and innovation will take a hit. After all, most breakthroughs are usually done by the young and middle-aged, those filled with new ideas and who have a unique lens of seeing the world. And none of this is to mention the cultural and social ramifications, such as a worsening of the loneliness epidemic. So, countries need to revisit the policies that have led to this catastrophe and start working hard to reverse it before it is too late.

Nothing ever prepares you for the surprise that comes with receiving your first “jajajaja”

In this chart, there are two stories: one explicit and happy and the other implicit and tragic. The explicit message is clear enough: Life expectancy has been steadily going up over the past few decades, and people live today longer than at any time previous. The implicit message is more hidden, but if you look closely, you can see it. Take a minute and look at the green line representing the life expectancy of people in Asia. While it has been going steadily up for the past few years, you will notice a huge drop some time around 1950. Wanna guess why that is? Well, the answer can partially be attributed to “The Great Leap Forward,” an economic and social campaign led by Mao Zedong. The Great Leap Forward wanted to transform China from an agrarian society to an industrial one: 👉 Private property and individual farming was abolished 👉 Farmers were ordered to abandon their fields and produce steel in homemade, backyard furnaces. 👉 Local officials inflated their harvest figures to please Mao and evade his wrath. So, what were the effects? 👉 There was a severe labor shortage, especially during harvest season 👉 Disastrous, unscientific farming methods, such as deep plowing and planting crops too closely together, ruined the soil. 👉 The central government, believing there was a food surplus, subsequently exported massive amounts of grain to the Soviet Union and other allies to repay debts. As a result, between 18 and 45 million people died of starvation, disease, and forced labor. And, what might be the lessons here? I don’t know about you, but one of the biggest lessons for me has to be that a country where officials are scared of reporting their actual numbers is a country headed straight for a cliff.

High fiiive!!

In any conversation, I always appreciate nuance. So, rather than try to paint things as black and white, I love it when we explore all the different shades of grey With that in mind, here is a pretty nuanced chart that stacks the biggest economies of the world and compares them against one another across multiple dimensions. Enjoy!!

When someone tells you that they don’t need to use @portfoliopilot because they can build an AI financial advisor themselves.

If you’re considering diversifying your portfolio away from tech, here are the biggest 10 retail brands for your consideration 👇 (The stocks in this chart in no way represent a recommendation and should not be construed as financial advice. They are merely meant for representative purposes.)

Use this the next time someone confuses weather and climate

Wanna know why we lead the world in competitiveness? One reason is that we are a hub for some of the most talented people in the world, inviting them over to build with us and do some of their best work. However, if we keep alienating our allies, making enemies of them and losing their respect, fewer and fewer talented individuals will wanna come to this side of the Atlantic, regardless of how many zeroes we write on their checks. Soft power isn’t just for politics; it’s also foundational for our economy and our leadership in the world

This is the kind of news I want to wake up to in the morning

For all of my economy enthusiasts, I give you a beautiful example of comparative advantages in action Since it is more expensive for the US to manufacture ships than it is for the rest of the world Therefore, the US leaves shipbuilding, for the most part, to the rest of the world, and focuses on the other industries where it has a clear advantage

I think I have BINGO

I would love to see what this chart looked like 30 years ago 🤔🤔🤔

You will always be the person you spend the most time with So, make sure it is someone you like

In 2025, the global debt has skyrocketed, almost equaling the size of the world economy. And while there are universal reasons for this, such as: 👉 Pandemic legacy costs 👉Escalating geopolitical tensions and energy crises 👉High interest rates, another gift courtesy of the pandemic. There are actually very interesting unique reasons that pertain to each country. 👉 🇯🇵 Japan: Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is the highest among advanced economies in the world. The problem is that Japan has issued a ton of debt over the years, most of which is held inside the country itself. And while that can be a problem for any country, the issue with Japan is that the country used to artificially keep the interest rates at or near zero, which enabled it to keep issuing more and more debt for free. However, the tides eventually changed, and the country could no longer maintain its zero-interest rate policy, which means that overnight, the country was forced to pay interest on the mountain of debt it was holding. So, how to solve it? Issue more debt of course. 👉 🇮🇹 Italy: While there are many reasons behind Italy’s woes, the biggest culprit is The “Superbonus 110” Bill. What is it? It was a post pandemic green stimulus that encouraged homeowners to renovate their properties for free while the government would foot 110% of the bill. Why was it a problem? The program was hit with a ton of fraud and cost overruns, reaching a total of more than 220 billion euros! What made matters worse is that Europe has some strict accounting rules which forced Italy to factor the program into its national debt, which caused that number to balloon almost overnight. 👉 🇫🇷 France: France has not balanced its national budget since 1974. The French government spends more money per GDP than any other country in the OECD. In fact, government spending reaches 57.2% of GDP. Why so high? Mainly, France has one of the strongest social safety nets and subsidies. The French invest in healthcare, public sector wages, and retirement funds. What’s more, the French population wants to increase governmental support while lowering tax rates, which can only be done by taking on more debt. —------------------------------- So, while the global economy has forced the world to take on more debt, it is always fascinating to see how poor decisions by individual economies can also lead to exacerbating matters.

Quick poll: How much power should Congress bestow on the office of the president? Asking for a friend

PSA: Any time you see a chart, rather than accepting it at face value, take the time to dig into the numbers and understand the story behind it. You might be surprised Case in point: The chart below highlights the most productive countries in the OECD as measured by GDP per hour worked. And topping the chart is Ireland with a whopping $151/ hour So, why is Ireland the most produce country on the list? The answer has less to do with the population’s productivity and more to do with with outside factors that fudge those numbers. 👉 One of the biggest is foreign direct investment, FDI for short. International companies invest in Ireland and build headquarters over there because of its low corporate tax of 12.5% 👉 Also, because of this low corporate tax, these multinationals will book their global profits and and intellectual property assets over there, inflating the country’s GDP 👉 While Ireland offers an educated workforce that can serve those multinationals, the country also serves as an English speaking gateway to the rest of the EU So, is this high GDP/ hour reflected in the living standards of the average Irish man? The answer is no, and you can see this clearly when you look at the Actual Individual Consumption per capita, AIC for short. What’s more, a huge part of the “generated GDP” is sent back to the parent companies once it has been booked. To be clear, the quality of life in Ireland is pretty much on par with other European economies. However, you’d never guess any of this just by looking at the chart below.

Super interesting animation on how the war in Iran has affected the rest of the world. Definitely worth checking out: nytimes.com/interactive/20…

As AI evolves, the problems that come with it evolve as well So, the CEO of several public hospitals has discussed the possibility of replacing radiology experts with AI. And while I am all for progress, this is a really bad idea given that we still haven’t worked out AI mirages What are AI mirages, I hear you ask? Well, according to a Stanford paper that has yet to be peer reviewed, AI frontier models used to study chest X-rays can ace medical benchmark tests without ever seeing the actual X-rays. That’s like you acing a calculus test without ever seeing the exam So, how is that possible? The AI would come up with very elaborate explanations behind its answer rather than just admit that it didn’t have access to the X-ray image. These explanations would be so rational that they would pass the benchmark test. Researchers called this phenomenon AI mirages, and usual hallucination safeguards can’t catch them

Made me chuckle