_Eric Basmajian @_EPBReesearch
EPB Research | Economics & Business Cycles for asset managers and business owners. blog.epbresearch.com Joined October 2011-
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Higher inflation estimates with the same rate path imply a less restrictive real policy rate in the near term.
While consumer spending represents 70% of the US economy, the portion that is truly cyclical is only about 16%. Source: @EPBResearch
While consumer spending represents 70% of the US economy, the portion that is truly cyclical is only about 16%. @EPBResearch @augurinfinity augurdigest.com/p/augur-digest…
Supply shocks are a nightmare for the Fed with a dual mandate.
A simplified visual of supply shocks and the impact on growth, inflation & Fed policy.
“The economy is 70% consumption” is true, but it wildly overstates how much the “consumer” really drives business cycles. The business cycle is really driven by a narrow slice of the economy: blog.epbresearch.com/p/the-20-of-th… 7/7
Consumer spending is 70% of GDP. This number gets cited constantly as proof that the consumer “drives” the business cycle. Here is what that 70% actually looks like when you break it down… Less than 20% really matters. 1/
The US-Iran conflict has reignited recession fears. Here's what the data from five decades of geopolitical shocks actually shows about when or how these events matter.
A simplified visual of supply shocks and the impact on growth, inflation & Fed policy.
First podcast back from my health related hiatus. It was great to catch up with @davidlin_TV youtu.be/p-9rjdU5X08?si…
US Housing Market Forward Conditions Matrix Your strongest & weakest US housing markets ⬇️
Real growth remains stable everywhere, except in the most cyclical (leading) sectors.
Healthcare, housing, and insurance continue to dominate the consumer spending basket.
Higher debt, worse demographics, and an increasingly large government sector... We simply do not have the conditions to sustain positive real interest rates anymore. This dynamic favors speculators over savers.
How profit margins disrupted the traditional recessionary sequence.
There's still a negative forward pipeline for single-family and multi-family residential construction, but far less so than in 2024/2025.
Our video on how AI is impacting the economy and GDP growth. youtu.be/VlvNsqRPh20?si…
As a society, one of the first things we should decide (debate) is the size of government. From there, we can debate how to prioritize spending from within those constraints. Unrestricted growth in government size follows a predictable pattern. Helpful > neutral > harmful.
70% of the months with negative real interest rates occurred in the last 16 years. 28% of the data, but 70% of the negative real rates.
This chart shows the average and range of the real Fed Funds rate across economic expansions. Since the 2008 recession ended, the real Fed Funds Rate has been negative ~75% of the time. Will this cycle end before the average real fed funds rate is positive?
Can the economy sustain positive real interest rates? It remains to be seen.
This chart shows the average and range of the real Fed Funds rate across economic expansions. Since the 2008 recession ended, the real Fed Funds Rate has been negative ~75% of the time. Will this cycle end before the average real fed funds rate is positive?
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